NL Central 2025 predictions – by G. Scott Thomas

Most experts insisted that the St. Louis Cardinals would win the National League Central last year. My history-based prediction system chose the Milwaukee Brewers. Hilarity ensued.

The Brewers won the division by 10 games.

A new season awaits, and the pundits have anointed the Chicago Cubs as the likely NL Central champions in 2025. My formula opts for the Brewers again.

We’ll see.

My computer program compared each team’s record during the past three seasons (2022-2024) against the corresponding marks for 1,318 clubs from the free-agency era, which dates back to 1976.

The 2025 forecast for a particular team is determined by its 50 closest matches (CMs), the 50 clubs from the past that were most alike the present-day squad.

The key to my system is the subsequent performance of each CM. The Minnesota Twins of 2007-2009, for instance, were remarkably similar to the Cubs of 2022-2024. So how did the Twins fare in the following season (2010)? They posted a sterling 94-68 record, a good sign for Chicago’s ’25 squad.

But that’s only one match. The next-year records for all 50 CMs are what count. One point is awarded for each team that surpassed .500, two more points for a playoff qualification, three additional points for a league pennant, and four extra points for a world championship.

What does that leave us with? The Brewers on top again with 104 points, and the Cubs a good distance back with 71. Here’s the predicted order of finish for the NL Central:

1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. Chicago Cubs
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. St. Louis Cardinals

The Pirates and Cardinals are tied with 32 points apiece, but Pittsburgh wins the tiebreaker for fourth place. One of its 50 CMs won a league title, something that none of St. Louis’s matches could duplicate.

You’ll find breakdowns for all five teams below. Each summary begins with the club’s 2025 prediction points, followed by its 2024 record, then the next-season results for its 50 CMs. The final line discloses the very closest match of all, followed in parentheses by its record. (The next-year record for the closest CM often varies from my overall prediction. Don’t forget that what truly matters is the cumulative score for all 50 CMs.)

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