After missing out on Blake Snell and losing a Juan Soto bidding war to their crosstown rivals, the Yankees landed a big free agent on Tuesday, signing left-handed pitcher Max Fried to an eight-year contract worth $218 million. Fried, a first-round pick in 2012 for the Padres, had spent his entire MLB career with the Atlanta Braves after being one of the big-name prospects included in the 2014 Justin Upton trade. Fried’s contract contains no opt-outs or elevator clauses or any fancy deferral schemes to bring down the total money. The Yankees are opening their wallets to pay one of the best pitchers available a whole lot of cash. Fried’s contract is the largest for a left-handed pitcher in baseball history.
After Fried was limited to just 14 starts in 2023 due to hamstring and forearm injuries, as well as a blister on his index finger, the lefty returned to the mound last season and pitched well enough and stayed healthy enough to max out his deal in free agency. Enough is the key here because, for the second straight season, Fried missed time with a forearm injury. The more recent one, which was diagnosed as ulnar neuritis, cost him a handful of starts in July, but he returned to the rotation the first week of August. He finished the regular season strong, posting a 2.99 FIP across his final 11 starts, though he faltered against the Padres in his lone playoff appearance. All told, Fried had a solid platform season, with a 3.25 ERA and 3.33 FIP in 174 1/3 innings over 29 starts, good for 3.4 WAR and peripherals right in line with his career numbers.
If I didn’t include the eight-year projections, some of you might picket my house and eat the local chili in vengeance, so here we go.
ZiPS Projections – Max Fried
| Year | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12 | 8 | 3.43 | 27 | 27 | 162.7 | 141 | 62 | 15 | 48 | 147 | 120 | 3.1 |
| 2026 | 11 | 7 | 3.59 | 26 | 26 | 153.0 | 137 | 61 | 15 | 45 | 135 | 115 | 2.7 |
| 2027 | 10 | 7 | 3.76 | 25 | 25 | 146.0 | 135 | 61 | 16 | 44 | 125 | 110 | 2.3 |
| 2028 | 9 | 8 | 3.95 | 23 | 23 | 134.3 | 129 | 59 | 16 | 42 | 113 | 104 | 1.8 |
| 2029 | 8 | 8 | 4.13 | 22 | 22 | 128.7 | 129 | 59 | 16 | 43 | 105 | 100 | 1.4 |
| 2030 | 7 | 7 | 4.43 | 19 | 19 | 111.7 | 117 | 55 | 15 | 41 | 88 | 93 | 0.9 |
| 2031 | 6 | 6 | 4.66 | 17 | 17 | 96.7 | 104 | 50 | 14 | 37 | 74 | 89 | 0.6 |
| 2032 | 4 | 6 | 4.93 | 14 | 14 | 76.7 | 83 | 42 | 12 | 32 | 57 | 84 | 0.2 |
I’m actually a bit surprised at the bearishness of the projections; ZiPS is thinking he’s worth $120 million, which is shockingly low to me. Most likely it’s from a few things. ZiPS is likely seeing something similar to what’s reflected in his xERA, which was 3.64 last season, and his contact-against numbers have declined a bit. Also complicating matters are Fried’s four IL stints over the past two years — which are keeping his projected inning totals fairly conservative. Beyond that, ZiPS has a lot more excitement for Snell’s upside than it does for Fried’s steadiness. I tend to be more optimistic than ZiPS here.
Even if Fried falls short of being the 1B to Gerrit Cole’s 1A in the rotation, some kind of signing here was necessary for the Yankees after they lost out on Snell and failed to retain Soto. Sure, the rotation wasn’t the team’s biggest problem entering the offseason, but it wasn’t exactly a highlight, either. Even with an improved Carlos Rodón during his second season in pinstripes, as well as a Rookie of the Year campaign from Luis Gil, the Yankees’ rotation was right around league average in terms of WAR. Some of that middling production was due to Cole’s missing the first two and a half months of the season with elbow inflammation, which limited him to 95 innings. However, Cole is now 34, Rodón has a significant injury history, and Gil could be due for some regression. Nestor Cortes and Clarke Schmidt also missed time last season, and Marcus Stroman was inconsistent enough that he was booted from the rotation down the stretch and didn’t pitch in the postseason. Considering all of this, the Yankees were wise to add another dependable arm here, even if Fried’s forearm ailments are a bit concerning.
Maybe it’s just me, but it never felt like the Braves were really all-in on Fried this winter. With the conversion of Reynaldo López back to a full-time starter going successfully and Spencer Schwellenbach’s terrific debut (and very good projections), I’m guessing the team was happy to count on Spencer Strider’s return and a healthy Chris Sale to anchor the rotation.
The Yankees still have a lot to do to fill the Soto-sized hole in their lineup, but they needed to do more than just make up for his lost production. In signing Fried, they’ve fortified their rotation.
