Nigh on 20 points and 10 places separated Wales from Japan two decades ago in the World Rugby Rankings, and the gap was still a fraction over 12 points and eight places when Wales briefly sat at number one on the eve of Rugby World Cup 2019.
However, Wales’ dismal 17-match losing run combined with Japan remaining largely in and around the top 10 has brought the sides closer together than ever before, so much so that a win for the Brave Blossoms in Kitakyushu this Saturday will see them overtake the Six Nations wooden spoonists in the world rankings for the first time.
Wales are already at their lowest ebb in rankings terms, having slipped to 12th, but another defeat this weekend would see them sink even further, to 14th, whilst moving Eddie Jones’ team up a place to 13th, above Samoa.
The top six teams in the rankings at the end of November will be in the first pot of seeds and the teams ranked seventh to 12th will be in the second band for the 2027 World Cup draw. As such, a loss for Wales would put them on the outside looking in, with only the return match against Japan a week later in Kobe and four Autumn Nations Series matches to put things right.
On consecutive weekends in November, Wales will take on Argentina, Japan, New Zealand and South Africa.
Wales lost the last time they played Japan on Japanese soil in 2013, which coincided with the Lions touring Australia. However, virtually a whole team of Welsh players was missing back then, rather than the two that made this year’s Lions trip, the now injured Tomos Williams and captain Jac Morgan.
Given the fixtures involved, it’s unlikely, but South Africa can be dethroned as the world’s best team this weekend. For this to happen, the Springboks need to lose to Italy for only the second time in 17 outings. If that transpires, the winner of the All Blacks vs France game in Dunedin will take over at the top. South Africa have held the number one spot since the middle of November last year.
Elsewhere, an under-strength England will remove Argentina from fifth place if they manage to do what the Lions failed to do and beat Argentina in Buenos Aires.
Australia and Fiji will also swap places if the Pacific Islanders can upset the Wallabies’ Lions series preparations by repeating their victory at the 2023 World Cup. A win for Fiji would put them eighth, with Australia dropping to ninth.
