I still remember the long drive to Ballymore to watch a Queensland Reds training session ahead of their tour match against the 2001 British and Irish Lions, as vividly as if it was yesterday. A flickering colonnade of eucalyptus trees on the residential road through Herston faded from view, and the famous maroon sporting rectangle appeared, as if from nowhere on a cloudless, sun-kissed morning.
I was moved to ask my taxi driver if he was ready for the forthcoming Test series between the cream of the north and the world champions. He looked puzzled and a momentary frown creased his brow. “You mean, State of Origin, right? Alfie Langer versus Andrew Johns, mate. Who’s yer money on?” Suddenly the furrows cleared like dawn mist. He was back in his comfort zone, and it was my turn to squirm uncomfortably in the back seat.
The cabbies in Queensland are like that. The eyes of another had once narrowed accusingly as he asked his ride, ‘Are you Benny Elias?’ When the former New South Wales rake answered in the affirmative, he was promptly kicked out on the street on the way to the game, with a wave of the arm and a whoosh of expletives still swirling in the air around him.
The shadow cast over that Lions tour was the ultimate series of derby games, played out over three matches at one and the same time. But unlike the Lions tour, State of Origin was everywhere in the newspapers, and it meant everything to the locals. As the taxi driver explained succinctly, “New South Wales sees us as the country cousins. We’re the outliers, the bunch of peasants to their squire. They think we live in the arse-end of the world.”
It is city versus country, rich against poor, blue versus red, and some of that classic rivalry has rubbed off on the sister code. It will be revived on Saturday when the Waratahs visit the Reds at the Suncorp. It may be called the Suncorp now, but it is really Lang Park to the cognoscenti, ‘the Cauldron’ hiding in plain sight; the old stomping ground of Wally Lewis, the place where it rained beer cans on the NSW players after ‘the Emperor of Lang Park’ was sent from the field in Origin II in 1988. You still bow before the yoke of Wal’s bronze statue as you pass into the Suncorp. It is a reminder of the Origin skull beneath the rugby skin.
It will also be a litmus test of Joe Schmidt’s selection process for his 2025 Wallabies. Just as the Reds were resuscitated by the arrival of Les Kiss from the UK in 2024, so the Waratahs have seen their fortunes rise with the addition of Dan McKellar from Leicester Tigers one year later. Fortified by reinforcements from the now-defunct Melbourne Rebels, the Tahs are currently unbeaten under the watchful stewardship of the ex-Wallaby forwards coach after four rounds of play. They sit second in the Super Rugby Pacific table, four points ahead of their biggest inter-state rivals.
The way the two teams will approach their tasks on Saturday evening is likely to be as diametrically opposed as the history between the two states implies. Queensland will try to keep ball in hand, play a bit of rugby and utilise the two 15m corridors. The Waratahs will focus on set-piece and defence, and cracking some opportunities out of the mistakes made by their opponents. Let’s see what some of the contrasts look like on paper after four rounds.
| Team | Average ball-in-play time [minutes] | Active time in possession [minutes] | Scrum penalties won | Lineout retention | Average no. of kicks per game |
| Waratahs | 34.8 [11th] | 19.2 [3rd] | 11 [1st] | 95% [1st] | 28 [1st=] |
| Reds | 39.5 [1st] | 16.7 [11th] | 2 [11th] | 78% [11th] | 19 [11th] |
The Reds under Kiss play what might be termed a traditional Australian ball-movement style: they kick the least, scrum to attack, and they are involved in the highest number of ball-in-play minutes in the tournament; on the negative side of the slate, their lineout is poor and the bulk of active possession time is reserved for their opponents.
McKellar’s Tahs behave like an Australian version of South Africa: they prefer low ball-in-play time but occupy more minutes of possession within that frame, they kick the most and both of their set-pieces are extremely strong.
As many as four Waratah tight forwards, current and recent, could form the backbone of Schmidt’s forward unit for the Lions tour in July: the entire front row of Angus Bell, Dave Porecki and Taniela Tupou, plus France-based ex-Tah Will Skelton at lock. They will likely have two or even three Queenslanders behind them in the back-row, in the shape of Frase McReight, Harry Wilson and Seru Uru.
The fate of the game will probably be decided by two factors: the ability of the Queensland tight five to withstand the sky blue assault at set-piece time, and the winner between the Reds’ wide attack and the Waratahs’ defence in the same area.
The superstar status of league recruit Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii has helped young back three Max Jorgensen develop under the radar, as he acknowledged after the Waratahs’ 34-10 demolition of the Western Force in round three:
“When you go through some rough patches, it definitely helps when the spotlight’s not on you so much. It was always at the back of my head.
“Joey [Suaalii] has been amazing for our group. Hopefully he’s back from injury in the next couple of weeks.
“I definitely feel like I’ve come a long way in two years. I look back at some of those [early] games I played and I just look so inexperienced, and I feel so much more confident, just learning off those older players and coaches.”
His head coach put it more succinctly.
“Physically, he’s filled out now, the boy’s become a man, and he’s just starting to feel like he belongs at this level,” said McKellar.
he new-found maturity has been in evidence as much, if not more on defence than with ball in hand.
https://imgur.com/a/G6N1cir“>
McKellar’s men like to defend with their play-side wing as the highest defender upfield, and in the first clip Jorgensen is well ahead of the man positioned on his inside. When the opposition look to make the second pass, that often means the fastest and most dangerous defender is making a play for the intercept. Speed kills, on attack and in defence. It also means he can recover quickly from a spot ahead of the ball, bounce back and win a turnover at the breakdown.
That aggressive attitude on defence will create problems for a Queensland attack which enjoys pulling the ball back from the first line of forwards into the second line of backs more than any other side in the competition. Unfortunately for Kiss’ team, their opponents in round three had worked out a solution to the questions Queensland were asking.
https://imgur.com/a/emBjztp“>
https://imgur.com/a/S74x8hA“>
As soon as the ball is transferred from forward pod to the back behind it, the defender on the outside edge of the pod reads straight through on to the back, forcing a fumble. The Crusaders score on the very next phase. A similar pattern was repeated too often for Kiss’ comfort.
https://imgur.com/a/v6X0V52“>
https://imgur.com/a/1IwEg28“>
The Reds were running the same screen play off the second pass at the finish of proceedings as they were at the start, and it was still costing them tries and turnovers.
The ‘State of Origin’ match between the NSW Waratahs and the Queensland Reds may not have quite the same cachet as its equivalent in league, but every signpost suggests the rivalry will be more intense and meaningful than it was between the same clubs this time last year.
Under McKellar, the Waratahs are enjoying their new-found power in the tight five and their uncompromising defence lies second in the tournament with only 11 tries conceded over three games. They restricted the previously free-scoring Force to a mere 10 points last weekend after the Westerners had averaged 38 in the first three rounds.
In their second season under Kiss, there are some worrying indications Queensland’s opponents now know exactly what to expect, and they are ready with their countermeasures. It all points to a riveting contest which may raise the great ghosts of old Lang Park and have them looking down with approval. Who knows, even Wally Lewis may be raising a glass to the sister code by the end of the game.
