It’s the most exciting time of the year with the draft less than a week away. This is an exciting period of time for organizations, players, and fans alike as the 2025 class are about to begin their professional baseball careers. Today, we’ll be catering to any fans of the Nationals as we look at five potential 1.1 picks, the case for their selection, and some brief scouting reports. The class has had a lot of shifting around this spring, but there is yet to be a player that has clearly separated themselves as the clear pick at 1.1. Given the recent firings of both Manager Dave Martinez and General Manager Mike Rizzo, the possibilities of where the Nationals go with this pick has never been more wide open. With the goal of a new approach in management, this leaves Washington in a very interesting position to say the least, but one that they may be enjoying as they will have their pick of some extremely talented players.
Before we dive in, I want to go over some players that just missed the cut for my top 5 1.1 candidates. Aiva Arquette is one of the most talented players in the country out of Oregon State with a quality glove in the middle infield and a really intriguing offensive profile. If the Nationals elect to go with a college bat, Arquette could be the first player off the board. Billy Carlson is one of the top prep shortstops out of California with an uber-impressive glove and a talented arm. There are some concerns for me over the bat to ball skills which ultimately pushed him just below the other 2 prep infielders that are included in the top 5. The final player to mention is yet another prep shortstop, a position that has a significant amount of depth in this year’s draft, Joseph “Jojo” Parker. The left-handed hitting shortstop from Mississippi ballooned up boards with his stellar performance on the summer circuit in 2024 and looks to be picked in the top 10 this year. Now, let’s dive into the 5 potential 1.1 picks and the case for each.
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Ethan Holliday, OK, SS/3B, Prep
The son of Matt and younger brother to Jackson, Ethan Holliday has some of the best bloodlines you’ll come across, a point which could push the Nationals to select him in a year where there is minimal separation at the top of the class. There is a very real chance that we see yet another Holliday be taken with the first overall pick. Ethan has a significant size advantage on his older brother, and the two have slightly different offensive profiles as well. Ethan, throughout the summer circuit in 2024 and the high school season this spring, has shown flashes of really advanced raw power. The bat to ball and overall hit tool is probably one or two grades below where Jackson’s was at the same time in his career, but the intriguing raw power and well-leveraged swing that is able to access the pull-side in the air allows for a more enticing overall profile for Ethan than what Jackson had. Defensively, there is a strong chance that he ends up sticking at third base long term. The glove works with good rhythm and feel, but the range may prove to be a limiting factor for him to stick at shortstop throughout his career. He does have the arm strength and a strong enough offensive profile to be an impact player at the position. Holliday is my personal pick to be selected by the Nationals, but again it’s really tough to say at this point with the congestion at the top of the board.
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Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
There are two college southpaws on this list, and for good reason. First is Jamie Arnold from FSU. The ACC standout features a plus sweeping slider and a double plus fastball that he throws in the low-mid 90s with unicorn VAA traits from an unconventional arm angle. He also features a changeup with tons of depth, although he doesn’t seem to have a ton of feel for the strike zone with it. There are some concerns about the ability to command the baseball in general, but the stuff he offers is super unique given the low release height, funky arm angle, and outlier pitch movement. He has the potential to be a frontline ace. While there are some concerns about the risk that he poses to potentially be a reliever given the mostly 2 pitch mix he employs, that risk is ultimately inherent for any prep or collegiate arm. The uniqueness of Arnold makes him the top collegiate pitcher in the class, and he should be in heavy consideration for the first overall pick.
Anderson just wrapped an absolutely marvelous run through Omaha with masterful pitching performances in his two games there. The recency bias, and the quality of pitcher that he is, may be enough to vault him into the 1.1 slot. He stands at 6’2” with a lean, athletic frame and a clean, smooth delivery. He features a diverse pitch mix with 4 pitches grading out above-average. The fastball sits in the low-mid 90s with some life to the top of the zone. He pairs this with a sharp slider, downer curveball, and a solid changeup. The ability to offer multiple looks to the hitter paints an interesting dichotomy when compared to a pitcher like Arnold. Both are successful in their own ways with Arnold bringing unique offerings to the table while Anderson relies on a holistic mix of quality offerings. There’s not much separating the two collegiate arms at the top of the board for me, and it will be interesting to see how the Nationals, or the rest of the league, views the two.
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Seth Hernandez, RHP, California, Prep
Hernandez, a RHP from Corona HS in California and teammates with Billy Carlson, seems to be the consensus top prep pitcher and a real candidate for the 1.1 pick. While the first pick of the draft has not been a prep arm since 2014, Hernandez has a fine mix of athleticism, present stuff, polish, and projectability that have forced him into the conversation. He stands at a slender but athletic and strong 6’4” with an 190 lb frame. He features a power fastball that has flirted closely with triple digits, a sharp slider, power curveball, and a solid fading changeup. Hernandez was uber impressive throughout the summer circuit in 2024 and put together a quality end to his high school baseball career which ultimately earned him the Gatorade National Player of the Year. He has shown some ability and raw power with the bat as well, another indicator of the explosiveness and athleticism that he possesses. Hernandez will almost certainly be the first prep pitcher off the board, and it may happen with the first pick of the night.
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Eli Willits, SS, Oklahoma, Prep
Willits is yet another prep shortstop from Oklahoma with baseball bloodlines that has seen his stock rise over the last year. Now, he’s in a position to be considered for the first overall pick. The switch hitter will still be 17 on draft day, making him one of the younger players in the draft which is a trait that some models deployed by teams really value. Willits has a lean frame at 6’1” and 180 lbs. He can pick it on the dirt and has the defensive toolset to stick at short long term. It’s definitely a hit over power type of offensive toolset, but there should be enough juice available once the frame fills out a bit more to provide an impact and well-rounded offensive profile. Willits may offer the safest floor of the prep players listed here in consideration for the 1.1. The ceiling may be more limited than his fellow Oklahoma native Ethan Holliday, but the combination of age, hit tool, and an overall well-rounded profile may be just enough for the Nationals to fall in love with him and take him with the first pick.
