Francisco Lindor playing for the New York Mets, CCed by Liscense 2.0
It’s award season in baseball, and looking at MVP leaderboards, it’s ultimately a two-man race in both leagues, with the AL race coming down to Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge and Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr, and the NL race coming down to Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani and Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor. While both seem to have a clear favorite, I think it’s a much closer race on both sides than people think. Let’s break down each race and decide who should win. (All stats through 9/11)
Bobby Witt Jr was drafted 2nd overall in 2019 and was the Baseball America and USA Today minor league player of the year in 2021, so he made his debut in 2022 with lofty expectations. The Royals liked what they saw in his first two years (106 wRC+, 8.1 fWAR from 2022-23) and signed him to the richest contract in franchise history. It immediately paid off, as he has been one of the best players in all of baseball by fWAR and bWAR this season. His BABIP is at a career-high .355, but his batted-ball data has improved as well. Witt is amongst the best in the league in average exit velocity (95th percentile), barrel rate (92nd percentile), and hard-hit rate (89th percentile). Comparing him to Aaron Judge, Witt is a better defender (100th percentile outs above average at a premium position) and baserunner. And although this can’t be quantified, one could argue that Witt has been more valuable to his team than Judge has. Last season, the Royals had the second-worst record in baseball at 56-106. As of this writing, they are 75-65 and hold the third wild card position in the wild card race, and it’s no coincidence that this improvement has corresponded with Witt’s ascension into superstardom.
Unfortunately for Witt, Aaron Judge is also close to the top of the league in both versions of WAR. In addition, Judge leads all of baseball in OBP, SLG, wOBA, ISO, BB%, and if you’re into traditional stats, HR and RBI. Even looking at his batted ball data, he leads the league in average exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and xwOBA. He’s having a better offensive season than his own 2022 MVP season, Bryce Harper’s monster 2015 MVP season, and Miguel Cabrera’s 2012 triple-crown season. To put it into more perspective, Judge is on pace for the highest single-season wOBA and wRC+ since Barry Bonds (excluding the shortened 2020 season). Playing centerfield every day hurts Judge’s value because he’s a negative defender there (13th percentile outs above average), but even considering this, Steamer projects Judge to finish at 10.3 fWAR.
Some people will compare this to the Miguel Cabrera vs Mike Trout MVP debate in 2012: Do you pick the player having a historic season in one facet of the game, or do you pick the player whose all-around value is better? However, it’s different because Judge’s offensive season is so dominant that he and Witt Jr. are tied in WAR, where in 2012, Trout had almost 3.0 more WAR than Cabrera. Bobby Witt Jr is here to stay and will probably win some MVPs down the line, but Judge’s offensive dominance gives him his second MVP.
The Mets started 0-5 and were 24-33 through May, but have been 47-31 since June and are currently tied for the third wild card spot in the National League. Unsurprisingly, the Mets’ level of play has correlated with Francisco Lindor’s level of play. In the first month of the season, Lindor had an 84 wRC+, and he followed that up with a good-not-great 115 wRC+ in May. He’s been on a heater since June, however, posting a 161 wRC+ and pushing the Mets into playoff contention. In 2022, he was 7th in the National League in fWAR, but most of that came from defensive value, as he was in the 98th percentile in outs above average but 27th in wOBA and 17th in wRC+ amongst National League players. In addition to being an elite defender (99th percentile outs above average) this season, he’s putting up his best offensive season since joining the Mets, as he’s 9th in the National League in wOBA and 8th in wRC+. To back this up, his key batted ball metrics (exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate) are also at their highest since joining the Mets. If you’re into traditional stats, he’s also been a good power-speed threat, posting 30 home runs (tied-5th in NL) and 26 stolen bases (tied-8th in the NL). This elite combination of offense, defense, and baserunning culminates in a 7.2 fWAR, which is first in the National League, and 6.5 bWAR, which is third. The Mets are 11th in the National League both starting pitcher FIP and relief pitcher FIP, but are 4th in wRC+. Nobody really expected anything from the Mets this season, but Lindor’s excellent play has put this team in the heart of the playoff race.
A designated hitter had never won an MVP before Ohtani did in 2021, and as we know, he wasn’t just a designated hitter, but also an elite starting pitcher. Ohtani is far and away the best hitter in the National League, as he leads in slugging percentage, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. He’s also at the top of the leaderboard amongst all players in batted ball data, as he’s in the 100th percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage, and 99th percentile in barrel rate. Another way to put Ohtani’s offensive prowess into perspective is to consider it from a WAR landscape. Despite providing zero defensive value, Ohtani is second in the NL in fWAR and leads the NL in bWAR. The Dodgers pitching has struggled this year, as they’re 10th in the National League in rotation FIP and 14th in bullpen FIP. Yet, they’re only one game back from the #1 overall seed in the National League because they lead the league in wRC+, despite not having Mookie Betts for a good portion of the season. And although I praised Lindor for being a good power-speed threat, Ohtani is the premier power-speed threat in baseball. His strongest case for being MVP is that he is chasing a 50/50 season, and he has a very good shot to get there, as he’s at 46/47 as of writing.
It’s actually a similar conversation to the American League: Do you pick the candidate having an outstanding, historic season, or the one whose all-around game provides more value? Ohtani is once again doing something never seen in baseball, but I don’t think his offensive game is quite dominant enough to overcome Lindor’s all-around game. Both players are deserving, but the season Francisco Lindor has had is worthy of his first MVP award.
