What Can We Expect from the First Round of the 2025 MLB Draft?

With the MLB draft coming up in a couple of weeks, I’m giving you my early predictions of how this draft could turn out. The 2025 class offers a unique group of players, headlined by a strong group of college arms. There’s a lot of high school talent in this class, with some incredibly high upsides. Despite this being a strong class, it is weaker in the college hitter department than what we’ve seen recently. There are some intriguing college bats, but not many that stand out as finished products. Picking from the college bat demographic in this class will allow teams to flex the strength of their internal development systems. There isn’t much clarity yet, but it seems to be a foregone conclusion that the left handed trio of Kade Anderson, Liam Doyle, and Jamie Arnold will all be off the board in the first 10 picks. Prep infielders are always fun to watch come off the board, as they are typically a group of boom or bust players. This draft features an especially fun class from this demographic headlined by Ethan Holliday and featuring Eli Willits, Kayson Cunningham, Billy Carlson, JoJo Parker, Steele Hall, and Daniel Pierce. These players are all considered to be in the same tier, however are ranked differently by different teams. It’ll be interesting to watch how the draft is shaped based on the order that these players get selected. 

The Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees will not have a first round selection due to crossing the second luxury tax threshold for the 2024 season. 

1. Washington Nationals – Kade Anderson, LHP, Louisiana State

It seems like Washington’s choice will come down to Anderson and prep infielder Ethan Holliday. I think they end up going with Anderson due to his ability to be fast tracked through the farm system. The LSU southpaw is already polished while still having room to grow into his frame a bit more. We could see him making starts in DC by next summer.

2. Los Angeles Angels – Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee

The Angels have the clearest draft strategy of any team. The effectiveness of said strategy can be debated, but it seems a sure bet that the Angels will take a college player that they believe can contribute to their major league squad almost immediately. Doyle’s fastball is the best pitch in this entire draft class and will be his ticket to success in the big leagues. The splitter is a 50 grade pitch but plays up due to the tunneling off of his fastball. Look for whatever team drafts him to try to add a breaking ball that Doyle can rely on as a third option.

3. Seattle Mariners – Aiva Arquette, INF, Oregon State

Arquette is pretty clearly the best college bat on the board and looks like he has the ability to stick at shortstop. He hit well at Oregon State, he hit well at the Cape Cod League, he hits for average, he hits for power, there’s really nothing to dislike. It’s hard to imagine a world in which the Mariners pass him up.

4. Colorado Rockies – Eli Willits, INF, Fort Cobb-Broxton (OK)

If the Nationals go with Kade Anderson at 1:1, Colorado will have to make an interesting decision between Willits and Ethan Holliday with their first selection. This is a toss up, but I think Willits offers an incredibly interesting mix of floor and upside. He’s going to be a plus defender anywhere you put him and is incredibly advanced at the plate for a 17 year old. While he may never rival Holliday’s power threat, Willits’ outstanding hit tool warrants a top 5 selection.

5. St Louis Cardinals – Ethan Holliday, INF, Stillwater (OK)

Despite being heavily considered at 1:1, Holliday slides to 5 in this mock. The son of former Cardinal, Matt and brother of Jackson looks to be the next star from the Holliday family. Ethan is pretty filled out at 6’4, 210 and uses his large frame to generate a lot of power. He’s played a lot of shortstop in high school but seems destined to end up at the hot corner. Holliday won’t be a guy who’s fast tracked, but has the potential to be an impact player in a few years.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates – Billy Carlson, INF, Corona (CA)

The Pirates need to take a hitter and it looks like they’ll be tapping into the well of prep infielders. They’ll take a good look at Parker, Hall, Cunningham, and Pierce in this spot, but I have them going with Carlson. Billy is the best defender of the group and has significant offensive upside. 

7. Miami Marlins – JoJo Parker, INF, Purvis (MS)

This is another spot where it seems like one of the highly lauded prep infielders will come off the board. Parker offers a more filled out frame than his counterparts and I see the potential for him to develop into a 25 homer type of player. He’ll likely end up manning second or third base for Miami, but the offensive skillset is what really stands out. 

8. Toronto Blue Jays – Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State

Arnold could hear his name called as early as pick number two. In this scenario, I have him falling to Toronto at 8, an ideal situation for the Blue Jays. The lefty’s fastball/slider combination makes him a weapon on the mound. His fastball sits mid 90s but has enough ride to fool hitters at the top of the zone. The slider is a legitimate strikeout pitch as well. Teams will look to develop the changeup further to combat right handed hitters. 

9. Cincinnati Reds – Seth Hernandez , RHP, Corona (CA)

The Reds already have a plethora of pitching talent, but would be thrilled to add Hernandez to their system. This is a bit of a slide for Seth, as he could go anywhere between picks 3-9, but it’s hard to imagine him making it past Cincinnati. Prep arms are always a risky group, but Hernandez is as good as they come. He runs the fastball up to 98 and features a plus changeup, slider and curveball. This would be a really exciting grab for Cincy.

10.  Chicago White Sox – Steele Hall, INF, Hewitt-Trussville (AL)

Another prep infielder comes off the board here as the White Sox take 17 year old Steele Hall. The Alabama native is a great defender with plus plus speed who could stick at shortstop or end up in center field. The Sox could look to take a college pitcher here, but if they go with an infielder, Hall seems to be the favorite.

11.  Athletics – Ike Irish, OF/C, Auburn

Irish is a pure hitter that would be hard for the A’s to pass up. He has one of the better approaches of the entire draft class and is an excellent gap-to-gap hitter. Everything that Irish does with the bat is impressive. The defensive outlook reminds me of former number 1 overall prospect, Dalton Rushing. Irish could end up behind the plate but will also get plenty of looks in the corner outfield spots.

12.  Texas Rangers – Kayson Cunningham, INF, Johnson (TX)

The Rangers stay in state here and pick Cunningham, an infielder from San Antonio. He possesses the best hit tool of all the prep players, and potentially all the hitters in this class. Kayson won’t be a big power guy, but his fantastic barrel control and swing decisions make him one of the safer high school profiles I’ve seen in years.

13.  San Francisco Giants – Brandon Summerhill, OF, Arizona

It seems like the Giants are going to take a college hitter at 13. They’ll likely be picking between Summerhill, Marek Houston, and Wehiwa Aloy. Summerhill gets the nod here due to his high upside profile. I have some concerns about his chase rate, but his athleticism makes him a worthwhile pick for any team. 

14. Tampa Bay Rays – Patrick Forbes, RHP, Louisville

Admittedly, this is quite a stretch on my part. The Rays pick three times in the top 50 picks of the draft. Teams in this position tend to try to save money to come away with three really good players. Forbes is currently projected to be a late first round at best. However, Tampa could sign Forbes, who has impressive stuff, well under slot value. The money that’s saved here will likely be used to buy a prep shortstop down to their next selection.

15. Boston Red Sox – Marek Houston, INF, Wake Forest

Boston likes to take college hitters and Houston is the best college hitter available at this spot. Houston will play shortstop at the next level and shows really good instincts and body control. He’s never going to be an outstanding hitter, but has good bat to ball skills and will flash a little pop.

16. Minnesota Twins – Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma

There are a lot of scenarios in this draft where Minnesota would likely look to go after a college hitter. This isn’t one of those scenarios. Witherspoon and his polished arsenal are too good to pass up with the 16th pick. Kyson has a solid four pitch mix and seems a sure bet to become a high quality starting pitcher at the next level. 

17. Chicago Cubs – Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas

The Cubs will certainly be considering Wood’s college teammate, Wehiwa Aloy here. Wood has had the same meteoric rise on draft boards that we saw from Cade Horton a few years ago. The Cubs’ gamble on Horton seems to have paid off, which could encourage them to make a similar bet with the College World Series standout Wood.

18. Arizona Diamondbacks – Wehiwa Aloy, INF, Arkansas

This is a dream scenario for Arizona. They pick up the Golden Spikes winner and a very formidable power threat. I think Aloy will be a little susceptible as professional pitchers look to exploit his high chase rate, but he has the raw tools to succeed for Arizona.

19. Baltimore Orioles – Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M

LaViolette entered the year as the consensus top player in this draft class but slid down boards after an up and down year in College Station. He fits Baltimore’s typical profile of toolsy and athletic hitters to a tee and could become one of the best players in the class with a little more polish.

20. Milwaukee Brewers – Gavin Kilen, INF, Tennessee

Kilen could end up going pretty much anywhere in the first round. The Tennessee product has a very good hit tool, is a good fielder, and is one of the higher floor players in this class.

21. Houston Astros – Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina

Historically, Houston has steered clear of high school hitters. While Pierce, Neyens, and Fien would all be enticing here, I have them sticking to their previous draft strategy. Bodine has a really impressive hit tool from both sides of the plate and doesn’t really have much more to develop. Teams will be scared by the high ground ball rate, but his incredibly high contact rate helps make that more acceptable. He’s passable behind the plate but could also be deployed at first base if the Astros choose to fast track him through the system.

22. Atlanta Braves – Tyler Bremner, RHP, UCSB

Bremner could be off the board in the early teens, but this is probably the floor for him. There is massive risk of him being converted to a reliever due to his inability to develop a third pitch. The Braves have had success with developing college arms and would look to help sharpen and/or replace Bremner’s slider. The fastball and changeup are both plus pitches and will help him to be productive even if he eventually ends up in the bullpen.

23. Kansas City Royals – Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset (OR)

The Royals have been known to take prep pitchers, especially left handers, so Schoolcraft seems to be the obvious choice here. He doesn’t repeat his delivery very well, a drawback of his 6’8 frame, but has really good stuff. This will definitely be a longer development project, but the raw talent is really exciting.

24. Detroit Tigers – Gavin Fien, INF, Great Oak (CA)

The Tigers have taken a lot of prep bats lately, and Fien seems to fit their mold exactly. At 6’3/200 lbs, Fien is a great athlete and is incredibly projectable. He has really impressive bat speed and has shown an ability to hit to all fields. The upside here is tremendous if Detroit can help Fien polish his approach.

25. San Diego Padres – Xavier Neyens, INF, Mount Vernon (WA)

The Padres love high upside talent and they love prep infielders, leading Neyens to seem like a natural fit in San Diego. The lefty has the best power tool of any prep hitter in this class and could end up hitting 30+ home runs a year in the majors. His approach is well above average and he’s shown an ability to take walks. Neyens’ whiff rate is higher than you’d like to see which will cause him to fall a bit. If he can avoid the whiff at the next level he has incredible upside and could wind up being one of the best from this class.

26. Philadelphia Phillies – Daniel Pierce, INF, Mill Creek (GA)

This is a bit of a slide for Daniel Pierce, he could easily end up with a number of teams that are looking at prep bats. I’m not completely sold on his offensive profile, but MLB teams have confidence that his raw power will eventually convert into games. Right now, he’s shown an above average contact-first approach. Defensively, he’s really solid and could easily stick at shortstop.

27. Cleveland Guardians – Devin Taylor, OF, Indiana

The Guardians have shown a variety of different drafting strategies, but taking Taylor slightly under slot value at 27 seems to make a lot of sense. The Guardians will likely try to buy a prep player down to their next pick with the money they’re saving in the first round. I’m really high on Taylor, his offensive profile reminds me of former Guardians draft pick Chase DeLauter. He controls the zone well, makes consistent contact, and has shown the ability to hit for power. He’s nothing special defensively, but his offensive profile could carry him through the minors relatively quickly.