It didn’t take Sherlock Holmes to deduce that the 23 for the Brumbies game had all the fingerprints that pointed towards the Test 23, in all but name for Brisbane. As has been the case for these first five games, there have been improvements in certain areas, while others will need a wrench under the hood to fix over the next week before the Series reaches the business end. So, what still needs tightening and where should the Wallabies be licking their lips?
Beware of the opposition with nothing to lose
Tomorrow’s game smacks of a last-chance saloon for a clutch of tourists. This is where the work behind the scenes to keep up morale will be key. There will be boys who are dealing with a bit of personal disappointment facing a scratch side in which the Kiwis on show will have nothing to lose, so there could be some niggle. It’s a free hit to enjoy themselves with no pressure on them. If they throw a dodgy offload, or they’re a bit loose, so what? Who are they accountable to? There is some serious pedigree in that squad and you saw how Fiji played against Australia in the second half when they started saying, ‘we’re just going to have some fun’, and they caused chaos. The Wallaby wannabees will be more disciplined in case they can impress Joe [Schmidt] and pencil themselves in on the reserve list.
In the changing room beforehand, I imagine they’ll be pumped about the fact they could skittle the Lions. Whatever happens, there will be a few bruised Lions ribs after the game, I can assure you. For those Lions with noses out of joint, I’d say too much is made about the First Test being the be all and end but it’s not. It’s the first part of a trilogy, with plenty of twists and turns to come. You can still very much force your way in. The challenge for those feeling on the periphery is keeping mentally locked in, engaged, and having fun.
Ollie Chessum all but nails down his Test place, as backrow takes shape
The lineout functioned much, much better against the Brumbies. Dan Sheehan, when he wasn’t swotting wings for fun in the tramlines, was accurate enough, with Itoje calling the shots. Having 6ft 7in Chessum at the tail to aim for made a massive difference and I would be surprised if he wasn’t wearing a 6 on his back in Brisbane. There were a smattering of players on trial like Tadhg Furlong. He passed the test. Okay, he didn’t rip up trees but the scrum functioned and I only see him going 50 minutes. That’s the beauty of the Lions. There is so much quality, you won’t really see a drop off when ‘finishers’ enter the fray.
[Jack] Conan made quite a few mistakes but does what he says on the tin. He tires the opposition out with his heavy-duty carrying, puts himself about and gets in the opposition’s face, leaving Pollock, or whomever they pick, to raise hell from the bench. If Jac Morgan has an unbelievable game tomorrow, there will be questions to answer as to whether he is parachuted straight into the starting line-up, but I’d keep the bench the same.
Irish midfield duo appear to have KO’d Huwipulotu for midfield starting berths
Bundee Aki did just about enough against the Brumbies, but he’s under serious pressure from [Sione] Tuipulotu. I can see Aki starting the first Test start, but if he’s not absolutely on it, he knows Sione will come in. The same goes for [Garry] Ringrose. He was outstanding against the Brumbies, scoring a fine try and marshalling the 13 channel adroitly but any drop-off and Huw Jones is breathing down his neck. Ringrose was a little off colour this season but he has peaked at the right time, which counts in Aki’s favour because there are high-pressure moments where playing with your country midfield partner matters. Take that lineout throw at the front in the Brumbies game, where Sheehan gave the ball to Gibson-Park, and he returned it. It looked like Gibson-Park had tipped him the wink. I’m sure it’s an option in the Lions playbook, but to me, that seemed quite instinctive. That’s the Leinster connection.
On the wing, Lowe should start but he didn’t have a good game against the Brumbies, but we know he’s got credit in the bank. Freeman is nailed down but it’s a worry at full-back, with Kinghorn’s knee issues seeing Jamie Osborne flown out. A return to form from Hugo Keenan tomorrow would be timely. As I said in my previous column, Daly’s injury really hurt their options.
Breakdown woes need to be addressed…quickly
From my viewpoint, the breakdown was a bit lawless against the Brumbies. It’s a bit of a worry for the Lions because in the modern age you can’t self-police. You can’t stamp on people’s hands, throw a punch or even fly into rucks because you have to make sure your head is in the right position. The Wallabies have always been known for speedy jackalers who win the race underneath and because the Lions are looking to play a bit more, their support runners are half-a-second further back than they would have been with a more ‘traditional’ British touring side, who were solely seeking contact. Now there’s a hang-off, which is playing into Wallaby hands.
It’s funny, I remember Pat Howard talking about how they used George Smith. He said the Wallabies actively used to ‘lose’ the tackle so that the player would fall closer to them, than their own ruck clearers, so George could snaffle the ball. If you watch the Lions, they are trying to hit everything as hard as they can to stay in the fight, even after they’ve stopped runners in their tracks. The Wallabies will be canny. They’ll chop tackle, allow you to fall on their side and pounce. The Welsh teams used to do it with great effect with Sam Warburton and Justin Tipuric. The Lions need to be smart. If they’re playing an offloading game, they’ll still have to be selective because the Wallabies will disrupt whenever they can. The linebreaks will come, if they don’t force it. In a way, it’s probably a good thing it’s happened now. If they’d won by 60 points, everyone would have said, ‘we’re dominant, we’ll smash the Wallabies’ but now it’s a warning. It’s all fixable with few clipped-up sessions and some honesty behind closed doors.
James O’Connor poised to perform the ultimate redemption arc
The Series-ending injury to 23-cap Noah Lolesio was a blow. You can’t dress it up in any other way, but it’s not a disaster that cannot be mitigated. If they’ve done their due diligence and Tom Lynagh knows the systems, he can come in and do a job for a few games, knowing he’ll be cut some slack. For that reason, I’m not surprised to see James O’Connor helicoptered in for a number of reasons. Everyone loves a comeback story and he’s a different person to the 22-year-old larrakin we saw in 2013 when he was getting up to mischief with Kurtley Beale and Danny Cipriani as young lads.
You simply do not go to the Crusaders and sit on the bench for a Super Rugby season if you’re being a dick and saying, ‘pick me, I should be playing’. He’s played 10, 11, 14 and 15 at Test level, so is massively experienced. The ego seems to have gone and O’Connor is used to coming off the bench for a very good team. You have to believe in fate a little, as well. He’s not had the career he promised as a teenage wunderkind but in his last hurrah he could win the Wallabies a Test Series. Look at Morne Steyn, he bookended a middling-career by breaking Lions hearts. What a story that would be.
Defence in good shape but creases to iron out
Simon Easterby has got them into a brilliant mental space defensively but they still need to be cute enough not to get disciplined. There were still a couple of concerns with the hard press, where the outside defenders pushed up too hard and they were been exposed through the middle. That’s the risk of an aggressive defence. If one person hesitates or flies out on his own, the Lions can get caught. The benefits are you stop a team getting any rhythm, but a big mistake is milliseconds away.
There something a bit performative about an aggressive defence. For example, I sometimes get the feeling Ellis Genge is pretending to get madder than he is. He knows exactly what he’s doing and knows what buttons he’s pressing. To me, Ellis never really properly loses his rag. He’s plays to his hard man reputation but is smart and calculated. That’s the best analogy for defence, look aggressive but always keep on the right side of the ref.
Attacking fluidity improving but not yet the finished article
The Lions attacking play isn’t quite there yet but they’re fixable errors. It’s not necessarily their attacking shape but putting a pass in the wrong place at times. In fairness, their passing before contact has been generally slick, but some of the offloading needs tightening up. It’s an accuracy issue. They have to show patience and not try to force it so much, by looking for that miracle offload. It will come.
Right now, they’re having four brilliant line breaks a game and when it all clicks we’ll be calling them the most expansive Lions team we’ve ever seen but they don’t have to break them every time. Just wait for the opportunity to present itself. That’s why I like their attacking shape. It’s off first phase and it’s showing itself. I thought it was starting to click in the Reds game, but we’ve had two games where it hasn’t quite knitted together but it hasn’t been a major problem because you never felt the jeopardy they’d lose a game. That adrenalin surge during the Tests, I think, will prise a peak performance out of them. I maybe wrong, but I think the Lions will find a way.
Ben Kay’s First Test 23
Starters: Blair Kinghorn (if fit, Keenan if not), Tommy Freeman, Garry Ringrose, Bundee Aki, James Lowe, Finn Russell, Jamison Gibson-Park; Jack Conan, Jac Morgan, Ollie Chessum, Maro Itoje, Joe McCarthy, Tadhg Furlong, Dan Sheehan, Ellis Genge
Bench: Luke Cowan-Dickie, Will Stuart, Andrew Porter, Tadhg Beirne, Henry Pollock, Alex Mitchell, Fin Smith, Huw Jones
