Wales have one final chance to prevent a winless season
Welsh rugby is on its knees.
Eighteen straight Test defeats have plunged the national side into uncharted territory, and last week’s gut-wrenching loss to Japan felt like rock bottom. In the blistering heat of Kitakyushu, Wales led at half-time and looked set to finally snap the streak — but familiar failings saw it all slip away.
Now, with one game left in this dismal season, Saturday’s rematch in Kobe is more than just another Test. It’s a last-ditch chance to stop the bleeding.
The pressure and scrutiny of such a horrible run of defeats must have the players dreaming of the beach but ending this campaign with a victory is of paramount importance.
Sherratt has made four changes to his starting XV but the loss of Taulupe Faletau, who suffered “heat-related cramps” in the first Test is a huge blow.
Faletau was arguably the best player on the field in Kitakyushu, making more carries than anyone else and consistently crossed the gain line.
Wales will need to be pragmatic again against Japan in Kobe which means their kicking game will have to be on the money, while they will also have to gain the upper hand physically.
There is no point playing Japan at their own game because they will inevitably want to move the ball from side to side in attempt to tire Wales, with the conditions set to be just as tricky as last week. Sign up to Inside Welsh rugby on Substack to get exclusive news stories and insight from behind the scenes in Welsh rugby.
Kieran Hardy came in for some heavy criticism last week and his kicking game will have to be on point, while his Ospreys half-back partner Dan Edwards will also have a big role to play.
Edwards replaces Sam Costelow and he will have to get the balance right over when to put width on the ball and when to kick, while it goes without saying he must be accurate off the kicking tee.
One area where Wales did really struggle in the second half last week was at the scrum.
They started well enough but as the game wore on Japan applied serious pressure on the Wales scrum and this cannot be allowed to happen again.
Clearly the heat played a part, with the Japanese front-row playing the full 80 minutes while Wales were really struggling on the hour mark.
Keiron Assiratti has paid the price for Wales’ struggles at the set-piece with Archie Griffin coming into the starting XV.
In all honesty Griffin struggled badly at the scrum upon entering the fray and was even shoved skywards on one occasion.
The Bath prop is a work in progress at the scrum with the 23-year-old having struggled in some games but thrived in others such as last autumn against Australia when he gave Angus Bell a torrid time.
But this is likely to be the right call given Griffin’s prowess around the park.
Last summer in Australia Griffin put in a remarkable 26 tackles in the first Test defeat against the Wallabies and is a very dynamic carrier who is also a jackling threat.
If he can just hold his own in the scrum the 23-year-old could be an asset to his country on Saturday. Join WalesOnline Rugby’s WhatsApp Channel here to get the breaking news sent straight to your phone for free
The selection of Gloucester lock Freddie Thomas is an interesting one because former coach Warren Gatland went on record earlier on this season to say his long-term position might well be at blindside flanker.
Thomas is not the biggest lock in the world but he brings plenty of athleticism and enjoyed a fine season with Gloucester.
The 23-year-old is an excellent lineout forward who is very effective in the wider channels with an excellent offloading game, although he doesn’t shirk the nitty-gritty.
Thomas is perfect for what Japan are likely to throw Wales’ way on Saturday.
Wainwright also has a big role to play at the back of the scrum and Wales will need him to get over the gain line to make significant post-contact metres.
There’s an argument to be had that Wales should have made some changes in midfield by employing the powerful Johnny Williams in his regular position of inside centre with either Joe Roberts or Macs Page outside of him.
But Sherratt has stuck with Ben Thomas and Williams who struggled defensively last Saturday.
There is unlikely to be too much change tactically. Get the latest breaking Welsh rugby news stories sent straight to your inbox with our FREE daily newsletter. Sign up here.
Wales need to be spot on at the set-piece, while their game kicking must also be accurate with the aim of building an early lead as they did last week – only this time they need to be far more clinical when in the ascendancy.
On Saturday Wales have one final chance this season to end a horrible run of defeats but they must summon something they haven’t shown in months: composure under pressure, clarity in execution and belief.
