While the New York Mets were busy spending three-quarters of a billion bucks, the defending champion Dodgers were making a couple of lower-key moves, re-signing reliever Blake Treinen and signing outfielder Michael Conforto. Treinen, a Dodger since 2019, will make $22 million over the next two seasons. Conforto arrives in Los Angeles on a one-year, $17 million contract after two seasons with the organization’s biggest rival, the San Francisco Giants.
Treinen is a known commodity for the Dodgers, so this is basically a status quo signing. He had a solid first season with the organization in 2020 — 3.86 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 25 2/3 innings — and won a World Series, and then he was even better in 2021, posting a 1.99 ERA and 2.88 FIP across 72 1/3 innings. However, in 2022, Treinen’s shoulder started becoming a problem. After the season, he had surgery to repair his labrum and rotator cuff, forcing him to miss all of 2023. This March, his spring training was interrupted when he was hit by a line drive that bruised his lung, but that didn’t prevent him from having a successful campaign. His velocity was down a bit, though the dip had little effect on his results: 1.93 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 46 2/3 innings. And while his sinker wasn’t the weapon it was before the shoulder surgery, his sweeper was scarier than ever.
ZiPS Projection – Blake Treinen
| Year | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6 | 3 | 3.13 | 49 | 1 | 46.0 | 37 | 16 | 4 | 14 | 49 | 131 | 0.8 |
| 2026 | 6 | 3 | 3.61 | 52 | 1 | 47.3 | 42 | 19 | 5 | 16 | 47 | 113 | 0.6 |
ZiPS Percentiles – Blake Treinen
| Percentile | ERA+ | ERA | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 318 | 1.28 | 2.0 |
| 90% | 242 | 1.69 | 1.7 |
| 80% | 188 | 2.17 | 1.4 |
| 70% | 165 | 2.48 | 1.2 |
| 60% | 144 | 2.84 | 1.0 |
| 50% | 131 | 3.13 | 0.8 |
| 40% | 120 | 3.41 | 0.7 |
| 30% | 107 | 3.82 | 0.4 |
| 20% | 93 | 4.38 | 0.2 |
| 10% | 78 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| 5% | 68 | 6.04 | -0.4 |
Bringing back Treinen doesn’t really change the outlook of the Dodgers bullpen, simply because it already looked pretty nasty, especially if you agree with ZiPS. (Steamer isn’t quite as bullish on their relief corps.) Treinen does have some associated downside risk to keep in mind beyond the normal pitcher injury stuff. He didn’t reach his final form until he was around 30, so he’s probably a bit older than most people think; he turns 37 at the end of June. While I always tell people that “hitters age, pitchers break,” Treinen is approaching ages where actual decline beyond normal injury/attrition is a thing that happens. The Dodgers have more than enough depth to deal with this, should it come to pass.
Adding Conforto isn’t quite as sexy a move as it would have been four years ago. With the Mets, Conforto had established himself as an All-Star talent, with a 133 wRC+ and 13.5 WAR in just under 2,000 plate appearances from 2017 through 2020. But a hamstring injury and a case of COVID marred his 2021 season, and a shoulder injury from a workout during the offseason lockout resulted in surgery that cost him the entire 2022 campaign. Signed with the Giants to a make-good contract before 2023, Conforto’s first season back from injury was rather underwhelming, with a bland .232/.344/.384 triple-slash line, a 99 wRC+, and 0.8 WAR, but he bounced back in 2024, though not quite to his previous levels. Across 488 plate appearances, he hit .237/.309/.450 with 20 home runs, a 112 wRC+, and 1.3 WAR.
Naturally, the Dodgers will not be counting on Conforto to be one of the grand movers of the offense. At this stage in his career, he’s basically taking over the role of late-period Jason Heyward, in that he’s a lefty-hitting corner outfielder who’ll complement the team’s righty-hitting role players, such as Andy Pages and Chris Taylor. ZiPS projects a .766 OPS from Conforto against right-handed pitchers in 2025 for the Dodgers.
ZiPS Projection – Michael Conforto
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | .232 | .317 | .422 | 388 | 52 | 90 | 18 | 1 | 18 | 66 | 43 | 108 | 1 | 104 | 1.0 |
ZiPS Percentiles – Michael Conforto
| Percentile | 2B | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 26 | 28 | .279 | .366 | .535 | 144 | 3.1 |
| 90% | 24 | 25 | .266 | .354 | .503 | 133 | 2.5 |
| 80% | 22 | 22 | .254 | .340 | .471 | 122 | 1.9 |
| 70% | 20 | 21 | .246 | .331 | .453 | 117 | 1.7 |
| 60% | 19 | 19 | .237 | .324 | .439 | 110 | 1.3 |
| 50% | 18 | 18 | .232 | .317 | .422 | 104 | 1.0 |
| 40% | 17 | 17 | .224 | .310 | .402 | 99 | 0.7 |
| 30% | 16 | 15 | .215 | .303 | .387 | 93 | 0.4 |
| 20% | 14 | 13 | .205 | .291 | .365 | 83 | -0.1 |
| 10% | 12 | 11 | .191 | .274 | .334 | 71 | -0.8 |
| 5% | 10 | 9 | .179 | .259 | .308 | 60 | -1.3 |
Having Conforto on the roster clarifies a couple other unanswered questions when looking at the Dodgers. Dalton Rushing saw a good bit of time in the outfield for Triple-A Oklahoma City this past year, but I suspect that until the Dodgers are ready to use him in a full-time role, they’d rather see him get at-bats in the minors than fight for scraps in the majors. It also likely ensures that Mookie Betts will primarily be an infielder in 2025, unless injuries strike. Conforto’s signing probably doesn’t have much of an effect on whether Los Angeles brings back free agent Teoscar Hernández returns, though Pages may end up without a roster spot should Hernández return.
Do Treinen and Conforto make the Dodgers a significantly better team? Of course not. But they are a deeper, more resilient group with the two of them around.
