Let’s just put the headline up right away. Luis Severino is now an Athletic:
BREAKING: Right-hander Luis Severino and the A’s are in agreement on a three-year, $67 million contract, sources tell ESPN. It is the largest guarantee in the history of the A’s franchise. And even with the qualifying offer attached, Severino got well over market expectations.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 5, 2024
Now this is an interesting free agent signing. The A’s just signed the second-biggest deal of the offseason so far, and the largest in franchise history. They have one other player with a guaranteed contract on the team – and that’s lefty reliever T.J. McFarland, making $1.8 million in 2025. This is a sea change in terms of how the team operates, so let’s talk about why they did it and the ways it could succeed or fail.
First things first: The A’s could use some pitching. They were better than you’d think in 2024 – they won 19 more games than their dispiriting 2023 campaign. Three different A’s hitters – Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, and JJ Bleday – eclipsed three wins above replacement, the first time that had happened since the team shipped out Matt Olson and Matt Chapman. All three of those guys are young and under team control for a while. Shea Langeliers and Zack Gelof both look like good everyday players. Jacob Wilson is an intriguing top prospect. If it weren’t for the overall John Fisher stink of the franchise, this lineup would feel mighty tantalizing.
That excitement doesn’t extend to the starting rotation – or at least it didn’t before today. JP Sears was the team’s “ace” – but only by the process of elimination. He threw 180 2/3 innings of 4.38 ERA, 4.71 FIP competence, the kind of numbers that might get you demoted to swingman on a playoff team. That was in the cavernous confines of the Oakland Coliseum, not in bandbox Sutter Health Park, and Sears is a fly ball-oriented pitcher. Things got dicier from there; Sears plus Joey Estes, Mitch Spence, and J.T. Ginn would make for the most anonymous top four in the majors.
Severino might not be a capital-A ace anymore, but he’s a reliable pitcher who just completed a rousing comeback year with the Mets, pitching a full season for the first time since 2018 and delivering solid results in the process. His stuff improved as the year wore on, though his stamina didn’t quite follow suit; despite a lackluster full-season strikeout rate, he looked much more like his old self by the end of the year. His 11.1% second-half swinging strike rate is exactly equal to his career mark, an encouraging sign for a guy with plenty of talent but a scary injury history.
It’s not hard to see how that will benefit the A’s. He’s their best pitcher right away, and he’s even good in a way that should play well in a small stadium. There are a lot of strikeouts and grounders in his game, and the sinker he introduced in 2024 looks like a great addition to his arsenal. He’s now sinker/four-seamer/sweeper against righties and more balanced against lefties, using his excellent changeup as an equalizing tool. It’s an exceedingly modern pitch mix, and nothing at all like his last full season with the Yankees, when he threw more than 50% four-seamers to everyone.
The dream outcome for the A’s is a full season of, say, 3.50-ERA ball. The dream is also that he’ll bring a little name recognition to a franchise sorely lacking in it. Rooker is awesome and a social media darling, but this is the team’s first year in a new city, and Severino might be the only player on the team that a casual baseball fan has heard of (give or take Mason Miller, the reason I’ve focused on the rotation instead of the entire pitching staff when talking about how the A’s need to improve).
I’m not sure which of these matters more. The team is still a long shot to make the playoffs in 2024, but perhaps less of a long shot than you might expect. That hitting core is no joke. The potential minor league reinforcements are intriguing. There are several holes in the roster – third base and left field, just to name a few – that could be quickly patched at reasonable rates given the recent trend of bat-first veterans in free agency. The big holdup was always going to be pitching, and Severino is a nice start toward fixing it. If the A’s are sincere in their desire to increase payroll to roughly $100 million, he won’t be the last starter they sign either.
About the money: This is a lot more than both the crowd and I expected Severino to get. I was lower on him even compared to consensus, expecting a three-year, $39 million deal, and the crowd came in at three years and $48 million. Pitching has been in high demand so far this year, with every single deal coming in higher than our estimates, but this one stands out even there. In this case, though, I think I understand why: The destination matters.
Does a major league free agent, one used to the trappings of big league life, want to live in Sacramento and play in a Triple-A stadium for 81 games a year? Players are obviously willing to – the majors are the majors – but if you’re already generationally wealthy and in total control of where you play, the A’s have to be toward the bottom of the desirability list. Their stadium saga is a national punchline. The fanbase they just left staged reverse boycotts. Given identical contract offers, I can’t imagine many players would pick the A’s, particularly given California’s state tax regime.
The solution: Pay more money! In my opinion, that’s what the A’s did here. Tons of contenders surely reached out to Severino. He’s in the same broad group as Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, and Michael Wacha (who signed an extension rather than hit free agency): useful arms who can start a playoff game for you. Deals like that often come down to best fit – unless one team offers a lot more money than the rest. In other words, the Athletics made Severino an offer he couldn’t refuse.
In that sense, it might be an overpay, but it’s a necessary one. Someone had to be the first free agent in the door, and I’m definitely not counting McFarland, a 35-year-old journeyman with 0.9 career WAR. Before signing Severino, the A’s had a projected payroll of $34 million for 2025. Heck, they just signed the biggest contract in franchise history, and we still project them for the lowest payroll in the majors next year by $13 million. I think the team would have gotten in trouble – actual, risk-of-monetary-penalty trouble – with the league if it had so openly flouted free agency.
In addition to a nice payday, Severino got an opt out after the second year of his deal. That’s useful to him on multiple fronts. If he continues to grow into his new pitch mix and turns back the clock to 2018 in terms of results, he’s young enough to sign another lucrative multi-year deal after the 2026 season. If the A’s are an absolute disaster and he’s not having fun playing there, he can always bail after two years rather than stick it out for all three. Those are both useful escape valves, and player-friendly options seem like a great way for the A’s to entice more players to sign.
I’m not ready to give a final opinion on this one until I see the rest of the team’s offseason plans. But provisionally, I love this. The A’s were better in 2024 than most people realized. They really need to start getting better soon if they want to avoid being a punchline throughout their Sacramento tenure, and even into their eventual move to Las Vegas. They got a star with name recognition to put on top of their rotation and splash on banners across two cities, and they did it in a way that builds for both 2025 and the future. Two thumbs up on this one so far. The only bummer is that the A’s could have used a deal like this last year in Oakland, but better late than never.
