At long last, the Australian rugby public will get to know who will represent them in gold as coach Joe Schmidt will announce his first Wallabies squad of 2025 on Thursday, July 19, at 1 pm (AEST).
This squad is only for the Test against Fiji on July 6 in Newcastle, NSW, but with only 13 days between that game and the first British and Irish Lions Test at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane, you can bet this squad will contain the bulk of players Schmidt will select against the Lions as well.
So, keep that front of mind because although this squad’s adversary is Fiji, Schmidt must begin building cohesion and reinforcing combinations from the outset, so who he chooses for July 6 must be ready to go for July 19.
In predicting this Wallabies squad, we must take heed to what the head coach has said in the past and what his track record indicates.
We know Schmidt wants to preference domestic-based players ahead of overseas players, we know he tends to pick his starting XV before he selects a captain, and he rewards players’ form, having capped 19 debutants last year.
Nevertheless, the occasion is likely to alter his hardline mindset because Lions series are starkly different from regular July Tests.
This is a side of the UK and Ireland’s best, hardly the side to try new combinations or rookie players against.
Schmidt spent much of last year trying to cobble his optimum side together, growing combinations, trusting certain players, whilst relying heavily on others.
While it would be a stretch to say he found that lock-in starting XV, there are several players who regularly kept their starting positions, injuries permitting.
As for the size of this squad, Schmidt has previously said it could be as big as 40, similar to the squad size of Lions’ coach Andy Farrell, he chose 38 on May 8, a number which has now blown out to the mid-forties ahead of their June 21 clash with Argentina in Dublin.
“If I was going to give you a number, would be maybe around 38, it might be 39 or 37 or whatever, it might even be 40 but in that 40 we don’t assemble three or four of the Force boys in that first camp because they get to play on the 28th,” Schmidt told reporters at Rugby Australia HQ in early May.
It makes sense for Schmidt to name a bigger squad to account for potential injuries as well as players who are returning from injury. It also allows players, as he mentions above, to represent their state franchises in the lead-up to the July 6 game against Fiji and afterwards.
So, let’s go with 40 for this predicted squad, and while it is a squad for the Fiji Test, remember that Schmidt must hit the ground running by retaining combinations and rekindling old partnerships, and so a lot of the commentary in the selection will be about the Lions.
Because that series is ultimately what Schmidt and co will be judged on.
Without further ado, here are the 40 players predicted to be announced in Joe Schmidt’s squad on Thursday, July 19, at 1 pm.
Fixture
British & Irish Lions
Australia
British & Irish Lions
Props (6): Allan Alaalatoa, James Slipper, Angus Bell, Taniela Tupou, Tom Robertson,
Aidan Ross
Australians have seen the importance of the scrum in this year’s Super Rugby Pacific season.
The ACT Brumbies had the most dominant scrum in the entire competition, and it took them to the semi-finals.
Meanwhile, the Queensland Reds were hit with front row injuries; however, their stocks were never truly able to make the scrum a consistent weapon.
The scrum was a big reason for the Waratahs’ relative success this year, and it was the Achilles heel of a much-improved and otherwise solid Western Force.
It will therefore be no surprise that the Brumbies’ old boys, AAA and Slipper are first on the list, followed by the x-factor of Bell and Tupou.
The old heads have dominated together all season, even against almost entirely All Blacks and Fijian Test front rows, and AAA is in career-best form, striking a powerful and determined figure, who also appears to be in the captaincy conversation.
Robertson didn’t get awarded the Nathan Sharpe Medal for nothing; his work rate has been immense, and he’s consistently worked to stabilise a fragile Force scrum.
The man who seemingly comes from the clouds is Waikato Chief, Aidan Ross, who is Australia eligible, having signed for the Reds after this year’s SRP.
Experience is a key asset of all these picks; they’ll need to draw on all of it to make the scrum a secure launchpad for the backs.
Youngsters Zane Nonggorr and Isaac Aedo Kailea were part of the Wallabies last season, but they lack Test-level scrum prowess, and neither has had the richest vein of form, and for that, they miss out.
Hookers (4): Matt Faessler, Billy Pollard, Brandon Paenga-Amosa, Dave Porecki
Before his injury, Faessler was a lock for the Wallabies in the No.2 jersey; his all-around game is elite, particularly his lineout throwing, and despite having such a long injury layoff, his prior knowledge of Schmidt’s systems works heavily in his favour.
Hooker is such a specialist position, and should injury strike, the next player up must be across all the detail, hence why four hookers have been predicted to be chosen.
Pollard’s scrummaging has gone to another level this year, and although the old bulls on either side of him at the Brumbies have received much of the plaudits, Pollard is a big part of the Brumbies’ scrum success.
BPA is the heaviest rake here, and that bulk matters when you’re trying to overpower a team; otherwise, he has had a good season, nothing remarkable, but he is a Test player through and through. He will bolster the Wallabies’ pack nicely.
Finally, Porecki, the strength of his all-around game is elite, and he probably has the truest throw of the four mentioned here.
His prior experience with the predicted cohort of props also counts in his favour, as does his affinity for the chop tackle, a tackle technique Schmidt is very big on, and Porecki tackles at the hips and lower at least 15 per cent more than the other three hookers.
Second row (5): Will Skelton, Jeremy Williams, Nick Frost, Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, Darcy Swain
Those who doubt Skelton’s contribution to whatever team he is put in must pay respect to his raw numbers, which dwarf all the Aussie-based locks, except one, Williams.
He makes dominant carries at least 12 per cent more than the others (apart from Williams), commits two plus tacklers 80 per cent of the time which is 25 per cent more than the next closest (Frost at 55.4 per cent), and makes the gainline 55.9 per cent of the time, only second to Williams (65.7 per cent).
As the stats go on, the margin between the Skelton-Williams axis only grows; these two are elite-level locks, and although Skelton doesn’t often jump, the Wallabies have more than enough options in the backrow to offset that disadvantage.
Frost is third on the stat ladder, and his height, all 206cm of him, will be crucial at the lineout as the Lions have selected relatively short locks, with only James Ryan being close to Frost’s height, at 203cm.
Salakaia-Loto can’t boast about his numbers, but his experience, prowess at the maul and bulk in contact, as well as credit in the bank, having featured heavily under Schmidt in 2024, will likely see him selected.
Swain is the dark horse, and although Josh Canham has had an impressive season, he is a few years shy of being where he needs to be physically for a Lions Test.
Swain is a monster at the defensive ruck and is a great lineout operator as well as a maul menace. Swain has matured and is ready for a return to the national set-up.
Backrow (8): Rob Valetini, Tom Hooper, Fraser McReight, Harry Wilson, Carlo Tizzano, Langi Gleeson, Seru Uru, Nick Champion de Crespigny
The backrow options are stacked, and it is one of the few areas Schmidt will have the good kind of headache about who to pick on gameday.
John Eales Medallist Valetini and incumbent Wallabies skipper Wilson pick themselves. Both have had stellar seasons, leading their respective sides from the front and putting out good numbers.
This straightforward selection also goes for the two opensiders, McReight and Tizzano, and although the Queenslander’s form hasn’t been as elite as it usually is, he is nevertheless a world-class No.7.
Tizzano’s form, on the other hand, has been undeniable; he’s had an awesome year, where his game has grown, particularly his carrying, which has made him a genuine gainline threat for the Wallabies.
Departing Wallabies Hooper and Gleeson are the two players whose form has spoken plenty for their inclusion.
Hooper has come of age physically, while Gleeson was one of the few shining stars in a relatively middling Waratahs side.
And here comes the next debutant predicted for 2025, Champion de Crespigny or NCDC, he is a brawler, and his size and brawn were clear for all to see in this year’s SRP.
He’s the kind of player you need around training to make sure the contact work is at the right intensity, and should Schmidt select him, he may call on the enforcer before the end, to leave oppositions … ‘Thunderstruck’.
Seru Uru has had an injury-impacted season, but nevertheless, the Queenslander is likely to be chosen for his ability to cover the second row as well as the entire backrow, a very handy man to have in a matchday 23.
Halfbacks (3): Nic White, Tate McDermott, Jake Gordon
While many believe Ryan Lonergan’s time is now, the Lions seems like the wrong time for the Brumby stalwart to begin his time in gold, the status quo appears likely to remain.
The incumbents are a group that balances out each other’s weaknesses. White’s pass and box-kick are elite, and are areas which McDermott struggles with, particularly off the boot.
McDermott’s running game is second to none, while White does not pose that kind of threat. A fully fit and refreshed Gordon has all the above, a fact many often forget in this debate of the No.9s; all three are experienced leaders, and know Schmidt’s systems.
Flyhalves (3): Noah Lolesio, Ben Donaldson, James O’Connor
Lolesio has played more than 100 games for club and country, and at just 25 years of age, he’s the most capped flyhalf plying his trade in Australia by quite some margin.
He may not be the flashiest or fastest player, but he is a director and now has the confidence and trust of this Wallabies side to boss it around the park.
Although he is due to head off to Japan later this year, his experience, along with his late burst of form in SRP will likely see Schmidt make an exception to his ‘domestic-based’ preferences.
Donaldson is the most exciting flyhalf on this list and has the greatest potential to break the line. Schmidt is just waiting for Donaldson to trust his skillset; if he manages to find that trust, he could well start a Test in the coming months.
And yes, O’Connor, one of Australia’s favourite sons, is predicted to make a return, for one major reason, experience; he, along with Slipper, are two of the players who are predicted to feature who faced the Lions in 2013.
It is a rare and awesome resource for Schmidt to tap into, and his ability to come on and finish games for the Crusaders puts him in good standing to do the same for the Wallabies.
The 64-Test-cap veteran is also the most versatile of these three playmaking options; he can technically cover anywhere from No. 10 to No. 15. This is a huge asset in a matchday 23; this versatility is also a tick in Donaldson’s box and his bid to be in a matchday squad.
Unfortunately, the inexperience, lack of size and recent susceptibility to HIAs means 22-year-old Tom Lynagh misses out, should all things go well, he could face them in 12-years-time after a long Wallabies career but at 36 Super caps and just four caps with an average of 15 minutes a piece, it’s not enough for a Lions series.
Centres (5): Len Ikitau, Hunter Paisami, Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, Samu Kerevi, Josh Flook
The centres are one of the most troubled areas for Schmidt and his coaching cohort, as the combinations across the board are relatively fresh.
The combination of Ikitau and Suaalii dominated last year’s end-of-year tour, but Ikitau and Paisami have played the most games with each other over the years.
Kerevi comes into the fold for his size and experience, because none of the other centres are close to his 111kgs of bulk and winning the gainline battle will be crucial against the Lions and the powerful Fijians.
While Paisami and Kerevi are the specialist No.12s, Ikitau and Flook take care of the No. 13 jersey, and superstar JAS can slot in where Schmidt needs him, but as the Lions are bringing bulky Bundee Aki and stocky Sione Tuipulotu Down Under, whoever the Wallaby centres are must have the stopping power to deal with them.
Flook has the speed and experience to slot in at wing, versatility will be a great asset to Schmidt during this tour; it will ensure he can move people around should injury strike rather than bringing someone from outside the environment. Versatility is why Flook gets in ahead of someone like Hamish Stewart.
Fixture
British & Irish Lions
Force
British & Irish Lions
Wings (5): Harry Potter, Filipo Daugunu, Max Jorgensen, Andrew Kellaway, Dylan Pietsch
Speed will be the name of the game for the Wallabies in the coming months, while the Fijians have plenty of speed to burn, this selection comes down to what will work against the Lions.
The Lions have chosen powerful and tall wingers; Tommy Freeman, Duhan van der Merwe, and James Lowe are all power wingers. The wingers selected for the Wallabies must be strong tacklers and good in the air.
Jorgensen and Potter have plenty of speed to burn as well as being sound in the tackle. Daugunu and Pietsch are two abrasive wingers who Schmidt may choose to cycle through if the weather turns bad and the track gets heavy.
Kellaway has had a pretty ordinary season, but his rugby IQ and the credit in the bank from a solid 2024 campaign in gold keep him in the squad.
Once again, time in the Schmidt system matters, and this is where it is likely speedster and much improved Brumby, Corey Toole, misses out, but after improving all aspects of his game in 2025, particularly his aerial game and his defence, it is likely he is a Wallaby before year’s end.
Fullback (1): Tom Wright
Wright stands alone at the back as he so often does, and although No.15 is a specialist position, there’s enough cover in this chosen cohort to be able to start the Test season with Wright as the only specialist.
Mac Grealy has had a stunning year at the Force but now is not the time to drop a rookie fullback into the Lion pit, nor is it a time to welcome back Reds’ stalwart Jock Campbell into the fray.
Campbell has played Test and may again. Grealy looks like a great project at No. 15 for the future, but is still raw, adding these two to the camp at the expense of extra players in other positions doesn’t appear like the right designation of spots.
Kellaway, Jorgensen, O’Connor, and Donaldson can slot into this role; all but Jorgensen have played the position before at Test level.
Proposed squad breakdown:
23 Forwards
17 Backs
———
10 Western Force
9 ACT Brumbies
9 Queensland Reds
8 Waratahs
4 Overseas-based players
