Super Rugby is going to close out with the two consistently best teams – the Crusaders and the Chiefs – in the final and a raft of stats indicating the competition has delivered fans the fast, aerobic, highly skilled and sensibly refereed rugby they want.
It’s been a journey on both sides of the Tasman to reestablish Super Rugby’s popularity and restore faith and confidence it can produce the sort of high-quality entertainment to compete with rival football codes such as the NRL, AFL and even the A-League.
That journey started in mid-2022 when New Zealand Rugby and Rugby Australia began discussing the formation of a Super Rugby joint venture commission – an entity that would be created to manage and market the competition.
The big decisions around the number of teams in the tournament, eligibility and broadcast negotiation would remain with the two national unions – but the commission would have the power to shape the laws under which games would be played, build digital properties to better promote the competition and unify media obligations so they were consistent across all teams.
This move to give Super Rugby a new-found level of independence to run its own affairs was an acknowledgement the competition needed some help to win back fans – particularly in Australia – after its credibility had been damaged by the bloated format which ran between 2016 and 2019 and spanned 18 teams, 15 time zones, five countries, four continents and two hemispheres.
The impact has been powerful. On a non-scientific basis, most games have carried a sense of urgency, where there was a collective desire to get the ball back in play quickly.
The commission has been a huge success and the biggest win of all has been the ability to make a handful of law variations this year – better protecting the scrum-half at the base of the scrum, operating shot clocks on all set-plays, and playing on from not-straight, uncontested lineouts – and empowering referees to manage breaks in play to ensure a quick restart.
There has also been a reversion to a system whereby the TMO has only been able to intervene unpromoted if the on-field officials have missed foul play or an obvious infringement leading to a try.
The impact has been powerful. On a non-scientific basis, most games have carried a sense of urgency, where there was a collective desire to get the ball back in play quickly.
Referees were mostly good at snuffing out prolonged discussions before lineouts, making sure penalties were kicked to touch swiftly and scrums set in more timely fashion.
And most importantly, there were few, if any occasions, when it felt like there was unwelcome over the top TMO intrusion.
That gut feel that games flowed and were well managed, manifested in a range of upbeat statistics, most notably this was the second highest-scoring competition in history with an average of 57.8 points per game (before the semi-finals). The average tries per game climbed to 8.2 from 7.3 last year.
The average game length (excluding half-time) was 90 minutes and 11s, compared with 91 minutes and seven seconds in 2024.
On average it took 42 seconds for a penalty kick to be completed, compared with 68 seconds in 2024 and the conversion time was down to 55 seconds from 69 last year.
There was a big shift in the time taken to set a scrum – 29 seconds on average compared with 45 seconds, and lineouts – from mark to formed – took 18 seconds compared with 25 seconds.
Of equal interest is there were so few one-sided, predictable contests the way there were last year.
There was an average of 4.1 lead changes per match, more than half of games (54.2%) having a lead change in the second half, and more than a quarter of games (26.4%) a lead change in the final 10 minutes.
All of this helped to drive a 6% rise in attendances, a 27% increase in Australian TV audiences and a 19% lift in New Zealand viewers, and it is no wonder chief executive of Super Rugby Pacific, Jack Mesley, said: “From the rising TV audiences and growth in match attendance this year, to the surge in digital activity through fantasy social media, all signs tell us Super Rugby Pacific is heading in the right direction.”
As an entertainment product, Super Rugby is starting to rebuild itself as one of the game’s hottest properties.
But what’s not clear yet, is whether it’s is going to deliver on its other goal: a competition with the necessary physical and competitive intensity to prepare New Zealand’s best players for what they will encounter in the international arena.
New Zealand’s players and coaches have been consistent since 2022 in saying they miss playing South African teams and have alluded to that being a problem, hinting it leaves them underprepared to cope with the set-piece work and physicality of the bigger Springboks.
The switch to the Super Rugby Pacific format has coincided with a drop in the All Blacks’ success rate. Specifically, New Zealand have struggled against South Africa, Ireland and France since they reshaped Super Rugby.
They have played South Africa seven times since 2022, and won two, lost five (four of the defeats have been consecutive). They have played France twice and lost twice, and they are three from five against Ireland, but for the first 20 years of Super Rugby, the All Blacks had never lost to the Irish.
New Zealand’s players and coaches have been consistent since 2022 in saying they miss playing South African teams and have alluded to that being a problem, hinting it leaves them underprepared to cope with the set-piece work and physicality of the bigger Springboks (and by extension Irish, French and English) forwards.
All Blacks forwards coach Jason Ryan even said ahead of the 2023 World Cup: “It was always enjoyable playing the Boks in Super Rugby, in my experience, because of those big forward packs. You probably don’t have that sort of demand in Super Rugby as much as you used to.
“Super Rugby is probably not what it used to be, but we can’t use that as an excuse.”
To be fair to All Blacks coach Scott Robertson, he has never said anything about the merits of Super Rugby Pacific compared with its predecessor. But two days after this year’s final, he will unveil his 35 names for the three-Test series against France, and it will be intriguing to see how much of his squad aligns with Super Rugby form and how many players who may not have necessarily starred during the competition have been picked because the coach believes they have the necessary skillsets to succeed at the highest level.
And this is the reality of picking an All Blacks squad in the Super Rugby Pacific era – there are some players who shine in the competition because they are ideally suited to its aerobically demanding tempo, but may not have the ball-carrying crunch or defensive solidity required to be a Test footballer.
This sort of selection twist was evident last year when Wallace Sititi made it in, but player of the tournament Hoskins Sotutu didn’t. The messaging from Robertson was Sititi had the defensive bite which Sotutu didn’t and while he didn’t phrase it as such, he was practically hinting to media they shouldn’t always be seduced by what they see in Super Rugby.
This year, there could again be a few surprises. Could Dalton Papali’i– a prominent force for the Blues – miss out to the rugged Simon Parker who has been a workhorse for the Chiefs, carrying with an impact his 1.96m, 117kg frame enables?
Is it mad to wonder whether the combative and defensively adept Finlay Christie is better equipped to play Test rugby than the Crusaders’ Noah Hotham, who looks great in open games on hard grounds, but was maybe found out a little in the tight and tense semi-final against the Blues?
Parker is not as quick or as agile, but do the All Blacks need a man of his size in their back-row mix to effectively compete with such behemoths as Pieter-Steph du Toit?
And what about TK Howden making the cut? He’s another who didn’t win many accolades during the season, but was at the heart of everything physical the Highlanders did, and the sort of bruising presence the All Blacks could make use of it on the side of the scrum.
A few locks have caught the eye with their prominence – Naitoa Ah Kuoi and Antonio Shalfoon – but will it be the Highlanders’ Fabien Holland who wins a spot because he carted the ball up the middle of the field thanklessly and relentlessly – a skill international locks must have?
Does a decision have to be made between Quinn Tupaea and David Havilli? And if so, will the former win the call on the basis he’s been instrumental in setting the Chiefs backline alight with his direct running, or will the latter’s deft touches and smart kicking be preferred?
And is it mad to wonder whether the combative and defensively adept Finlay Christie is better equipped to play Test rugby than the Crusaders’ Noah Hotham, who looks great in open games on hard grounds, but was maybe found out a little in the tight and tense semi-final against the Blues?
This is Robertson’s challenge – finding players who he thinks have a style and skillset Super Rugby may not love, but the All Blacks would.
