Michael Soroka lost his spot in the lowly White Sox rotation in mid-May after posting a 6.39 ERA in nine starts. He was moved to the bullpen and proceeded to go on an absolute tear, prompting some thought that he could draw a surprisingly strong contract in free agency as a reliever this winter. While some clubs have indeed expressed interest in Soroka as a bullpen option, he’s drawn more interest as a starting pitcher through the early stages of the offseason, according to Will Sammon, Katie Woo and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.
The Mets are among the teams with interest, per the report, which adds that the only teams viewing Soroka as a reliever are those that already have largely full rotations. Few clubs can make that claim, though perhaps the Mariners, Rays, Phillies or Astros could view Soroka as a bullpen option (speaking from a purely speculative standpoint).
Those who didn’t closely follow Soroka’s season may not find the notion of him returning to a starting role all that surprising or interesting. He has, after all, worked primarily as a starter throughout his professional career. Prior to a staggeringly unfortunate run of injuries in Atlanta, the former top prospect looked to be emerging as a high-end rotation piece with the Braves. From 2018-19, he pitched 200 1/3 innings with a 2.79 ERA, 20% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate.
Since that time, Soroka has had a pair of Achilles tendon tears and three separate IL stints related to shoulder issues — including a strain that sidelined him for two months this past season. He’s pitched only 125 2/3 innings over the past five seasons. That lack of durability is another reason to consider him for a relief role, but Soroka did toss 87 2/3 innings this past season, creating at least some optimism that maybe he could hold up better than in prior years.
The broader reason for his appeal in the bullpen was simply the manner in which he performed there in 2024, however. Soroka had only three professional relief appearances heading into 2024. He made 16 relief appearances for the South Siders this past season, and the results were eye-popping. As I wrote on our Top 50 Free Agent list back in early November:
Beginning with a four-inning long relief showing at Yankee Stadium, Soroka punched out seven batters. He went on to fan 15 in 9 1/3 frames over his first three relief outings. From May 18 through season’s end, Soroka pitched to a 2.75 ERA and struck out a gargantuan 39% of his opponents. That includes a two-month absence due to a shoulder strain, but Soroka returned in late September averaging an improved 94.5 mph on his heater and closed out the season with 7 1/3 shutout innings and a 13-to-2 K/BB ratio.
Soroka still didn’t have good command in relief. He issued a walk to 13% of his opponents. That’s going to give plenty of interested teams pause. Still, few relievers can pile up strikeouts at such an overwhelming level over any kind of prolonged sample. Sixty punchouts in 36 innings is tough to overlook.
That said, it’s understandable if teams are dreaming on sustaining some of that production and stretching it out over a larger role. Soroka is still only 27 and won’t turn 28 until next August. He’s considerably younger than the standard free agent — particularly relative to starting pitchers. It’s also been a bull market for starters in the early stages of free agency, with Matthew Boyd and Frankie Montas in particular exceeding most expectations with the contracts they signed. Montas posted a 4.84 ERA with an exactly league-average 22.6% strikeout rate and a 10.1% walk rate in 150 2/3 innings. He still commanded two years and $34MM with an opt-out. Plus velocity and a late-season strikeout surge notwithstanding, it was a notable contract for a pitcher coming off a decidedly pedestrian season.
Given the strong early market for starters, some clubs might be inclined to put forth a lower-AAV offer to Soroka in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle for their starting staff, knowing the bullpen route is there as a fallback option. The Mets are apparently included in that bunch, and Soroka seems to fit the mold of pitcher that president of baseball operations David Stearns has targeted since joining the Mets: a formerly high-profile arm with some recently demonstrated upside who’s (presumably) available on a short-term deal.
