Trying to reverse a mini Six Nations slump with two games left to play, Gregor Townsend has decided that evolution rather than revolution is the best way forward for Scotland.
Successive defeats to Ireland and then England may have ended his side’s championship chances for another year, but the head coach has evidently taken sufficient positives from those contests — the latter in particular — to believe there is little need for him to rip it up and start again.
To that end, Townsend has made just the one alteration to his starting XV for the visit of Wales to Murrayfield on Saturday.
He has restored Darcy Graham to the right wing, following his carefully managed recovery from concussion, at the expense of Kyle Rowe, who drops to the bench.
There isn’t a huge amount of change among the replacements either. George Horne for Jamie Dobie is a near enough straight swap while Sam Skinner misses out to accommodate Rowe. The likes of Fergus Burke, Arron Reed, Marshall Sykes and Cameron Henderson are yet to see a minute of action.
Personnel is not the only area in which Townsend is steadfastly sticking to his guns. Scotland couldn’t deal with Ireland’s perpetual motion and then didn’t take their chances despite dominating for long spells against England.
Gregor Townsend sees no need to rip it up and start again after defeats by Ireland and England
Darcy Graham’s return is the only change to Scotland’s starting XV ahead of Wales’ visit
Finn Russell will continue as Scotland’s kicker despite his misses at Twickenham recently
Could they have kicked more, either off the tee or via drop goals, at Twickenham to keep the scoreboard ticking over more steadily?
That’s not really been Scotland’s DNA and Townsend sees no reason to switch from the fast-paced running game that is exhilarating to watch in full flow but which doesn’t always deliver the points that such possession and territorial dominance maybe deserves.
‘I feel that the performance against England was one of our best that we’ve had over the last few years,’ he said. ‘We didn’t get the win and in other games we would have. At the end of the day, the final scoreboard is what decides where you are on the table.
‘But I think that our principles, and what we want to see from our team (in the opposition 22), were very good. There were probably a few occasions where we believed we should have been awarded a penalty. And there are just individual errors that will happen.
‘I think if you were to have 10 entries in a game, you’re looking at 50 per cent being a good outcome in terms of getting points. That’s the sort of average that most teams have. Obviously, we had three other entries that led to tries. We know that it’s unusual to get so many entries against top-quality opposition away from home. But we’ve got to be better at converting more of them.’
Townsend has mastered the art of remaining largely unflappable in front of the media, regardless of question or scenario, although he did seem irked at one point at the suggestion Scotland simply don’t have the power up front to live with more physical packs. It has become a talking point among supporters, too, but Townsend isn’t on the same page.
‘I disagree with that,’ he retorted. ‘When we go down to Twickenham and outscore England three tries to one, the pack’s got a big part to play in that. At the first try, there were strong carries by the forwards that opened up space for the backs. The pack won’t provide that quick ball, they’re working contact. Our line-out produced two tries from the weekend.’
And what about the heavier defeat in the previous game? ‘Ireland played well against us, but that’s one game obviously,’ he conceded. ‘I look at the games against Australia, and how the pack fronted up against South Africa. I look at the games against Italy and England. Ireland played well and there’s no question that they were the better team that day.
‘We didn’t adjust to the injuries that we had probably as quickly as we could have. But our pack has gone really well against other teams and this is another opportunity to show how good they are this weekend.’
This game feels like a no-win situation for Townsend and his players. Expected to brush past a Wales team who have lost their last 15 matches, Scotland won’t get a huge amount of credit if they do. Lose, though, and the criticism mounting for an already underwhelming campaign will ratchet up a few notches.
Wales are playing like a team who have been given a new lease of life since Warren Gatland departed and Matt Sherratt took up the temporary reins. Townsend believes that makes them dangerous opponents, and he knows Scotland will need to match their intensity and commitment.
‘It’s different now that they’ve got a new coaching staff in place, and it’s almost like the start for this Welsh team,’ he added. ‘Part of that is the rugby they’re playing but also their mindset.
‘They’re playing with freedom. They’ve got nothing to lose, and that’s a really dangerous opponent. But I hope you see by the way we play, our players back themselves to make decisions.’
There will be no change of the kicker, either, despite Finn Russell’s usual dead-eye accuracy off the tee deserting him at Twickenham a fortnight ago.
‘Finn is an excellent kicker,’ added Townsend. ‘Last year he was the best kicker in the championship. And I’m sure by the end of the Six Nations his stats will be back up there with what he normally produces and delivers for Scotland over a number of years.’
