RosterResource Chat – 2/7/25

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the last RosterResource Live Chat before football season ends and the focus turns towards baseball. Still plenty to discuss with the big news of the week being Yoan Moncada signing with the Angels!

J: I for one do not buy the rumors of the Cubs being serious about Bregman, but were he to go to the Cubs, how do they even reconfigure to let Shaw get some playing time too?

Jon Becker: I think fitting Bregman in wouldn’t be particularly easy, but it’s never a bad thing to have nine starting-caliber hitters for eight spots. Maybe Shaw is in a soft platoon with Busch at first and fills in at 2B/3B? Hoerner might also not be ready to start the year, or could be traded.

Jordan: How do you envision the Pirates using Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez? Strictly as C? Or will they try to get some versatility out of them and carry them plus Bart?

Jason Martinez: I think they’ll take their time to determine whether Joey Bart’s breakout was real while allowing Endy to be eased back into action (likely in AAA). I think they will eventually get him time at other positions (1B, maybe 2B, maybe LF/RF) but would be a lot to have him do that early on. With Henry Davis, I really have no idea other than he’d boost his trade value if he rakes in AAA. Obviously, it would help if he improved his defense at C or OF.

Skip: Have a keeper league and need to decide between Ryan Walker, Duran, and Helsley. They’re all ranked so close who has a better year?

Jon Becker: Assuming your league values saves highly, probably Helsley. Baldelli isn’t afraid to flip-flop Duran and Jax, and Doval could end up regaining the closer job at some point to free Walker up as more of a fireman.

PJ in JC: What’s your sense on Pavin Smith’s season in Arizona? A straight platoon with the newly resigned Grichuk?

Jason Martinez: That’s how I have it projected based on how things ended last season (Smith was really good). But they could quickly go in a different direction if he doesn’t hit. They’re better defensively with Alex Thomas in CF on most days and I think they’ll have to adjust if Jordan Lawlar forces his way into the lineup. In those cases, I think the DH spot will change on a daily basis.

Yark: Orioles seem to have plenty of OF Kjerstad in a package for a Cease type or could they drop Mullins to save some $ and add something before he walks

Jon Becker: Neither of these would surprise me, though I’d lean more towards “trading Kjerstad for an impact pitcher” than “moving Mullins just to save money” based on how they’ve operated this offseason; a year of Mullins isn’t going to bring back the impact starter that a lot of people, myself included, think they could use. Trading Mountcastle or O’Hearn and rotating DH around more + playing Kjerstad at first more often is another plausible way to get Kjerstad playing time.

Ice Cream Helmet: Lineup A: 9 hitters, each 100 wRC+ true talent
Lineup B: Top-loaded with studs, bottom 3 hitters all < 80 wRC+, lineup averages 100 wRC+ as a whole

I’ve always felt, all else being equal, Lineup A will perform better. But it’s just my gut telling me that terrible hitters with “easy outs” in the lineup do more harm irl. Is there any data to back me up?

Jason Martinez: I like to use the Padres as an example since they’re the team I watch the most. But, in this case, it works because their 2023 and 2024 lineups were some of the most extreme versions of themselves that I’ve ever seen. I wouldn’t describe them exactly as your Lineups A and B do, but it’s close. The difference was more in the lack of balance between guys who are more all or nothing (Machado, Tatis) and guys who are good at “moving the line” and “taking a professional at-bat”. Soto was probably the only guy in 2023 who was good at moving the line and the lack of balance probably pushed the others (Bogaerts, Cronenworth, etc.) towards the Machado/Tatis approach. In 2024, they had Profar, Merrill, Arraez, Solano, and Peralta all moving the line and pushed the others (Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts, Cronenworth) to have more quality at-bats. Made a huge difference.

comish4lif: Is there any one team with the money and the need for Bregman at this point?

Jon Becker: Tigers are the cleanest fit with the most long-term need for him (for example, if the Red Sox got him I don’t know where Campbell, Mayer, and Anthony factor in as soon as 2026), but evidently whatever offer they have out there isn’t good enough. They’re really lefty heavy and could use a middle of the order RHH, for sure.

Dodgers Blue: Jason – I noticed a wide uptick in FGDC projections on ERAs over the last few days.  Was this a reaction to anything specific?

Jason Martinez: We added ZIPS to the formula this week. Previously, it was only Steamer. ERA is a tough one to project so I can imagine different projection systems having much different numbers. Check out the player pages and you can see them all together.

Skip: Is there any attainable hitter on the trade market the Royals can get to help their OF deficiencies?

Jon Becker: I’m pretty sure we’re now in the third offseason of people wishcasting Taylor Ward onto the Pirates, but he’d be a really great fit for the Royals too. Not sure how attainable he is but the Angels adding Moncada further clogs the offense and they might want to keep a spot open for Adell. Ward’s arguably their second-best hitter after Trout, though, and they’re trying to contend.

Jason Martinez: Before I go to the next question, I apologize for changing the view of the chat from top to bottom. I thought that was for our view only (apparently not) so we could see the newest questions at the top. Can’t fix now but will return to normal next week.

Tampa question: Chandler Simpson is either a 60 or 70 hitter with 80 speed. He has no power, but that’s still a valuable player. Will be see him in Tampa this year? And is his future as a regular?

Jason Martinez: I really hope so! We’ve seen players with that kind of speed (or close) who just didn’t have the on-base ability to take advantage. You’d think Billy Hamilton would have value as a 4th OF but apparently no team thinks he’s even good enough for a MiLB contract.

In the case of Simpson, we’ll see how he does in AAA. It’s possible. Sounds like they believe in Deluca and he’ll get a long look in CF. But not much else in Simpson’s way if he puts up good numbers in AAA and Deluca doesn’t improve much offensively.

Dave: Pitchers and catchers start reporting in a couple of days, do you expect significant trades in during Spring Training, or are the Cards, Padres and Mariners likely fairly set for the season?

Jon Becker: It sounds like (per MLB dot com) Arenado talk has picked back up the last week or so, so I think he’ll be moved by Opening Day. I also think the Padres more or less have to make a significant sell-side trade (Cease, King, or Arraez, probably… maybe Suarez?) to fill their needs elsewhere on the roster. Mariners feel done to me, they maxed out their budget and kept all their starting pitchers, and Dipoto always said moving one of them was Plan Z.

Back up: Will Freddy Fermin see a steady increase in the number of games he catches? Or, to put another way, is Sal Perez the Royals first-baseman of the future?

Jason Martinez: Sounds like that’s been the plan for several reasons. Need to keep Perez healthy and keep his bat in the lineup as much as possible. And Fermin is a very good catcher and should be getting more than 50% of starts. The biggest challenge in 2025 is that there are not many at-bats available at 1B with Pasquantino there and maybe less DH opportunities unless India or Massey can play an adequate LF or 3B. Perez’s club option for 2026 is only $13.5MM so I’d expect a similar situation for at least this season and next.

Dodgers Blue: If you had to name the (3) least confident rotation projections you had at the moment, which teams would those be?

Jon Becker: White Sox are easily the biggest mess right now with only Martín Pérez assured of a spot. After that… maybe the handful of teams we have projected for six-man rotations that might not actually use them? Yankees to accommodate Stroman, Diamondbacks for Montgomery, Rays

Yark: Jason big day next week. 60 day IL season lol. What’s the over/under

Jason Martinez: Important day! Usually not a lot of 60-Day IL activity right away. Not too many players waiting around to sign a MLB deal while teams are holding off until they can clear a spot by utilizing the 60-Day IL. But I’d put the O/U at around 175 players on the IL for Opening Day.

Yark: Will Chapman get the majority of save opportunities in 2025?

Jon Becker: I’d lean Hendriks, and Jason’s saves projections (22 for Hendriks, 12 for Chapman) currently reflect that. Chapman walks so many hitters and managers don’t love that in the ninth.

Wilson: Roster Resource predicts that Jacob Wilson will hit .287 this year. Will he ever hit .300 or contend for a batting title?

Jason Martinez: Well, not RosterResource since I don’t do my own projections anymore. But of the 6 projection systems that are housed on FanGraphs, Wilson’s batting average ranges from .269-.287. Seems reasonable for that profile, which is a very unique one for a right-handed batter. But even for a guy like Luis Arraez, it can be tough to find holes in the outfield when teams know you don’t have much power or exit velocity. I’d have more confidence in Wilson if he can slug a bit in his rookie season. Maybe 10-15 HR and 30+ doubles. Not sure he has that in him.

Dodgers Blue: When the Yankees let Gleyber walk without a hint of wanting him back, my assumption was they were in play for Bregman or Ha-Seong Kim.  With Kim off the market, and apparently zero interest in Bregman either, what are we doing here????

Jon Becker: This is entirely speculative, but maybe the Yankees aren’t thrilled with the idea of signing a 2017 Astro? They also only have $16M to work with before hitting the top tax line, though I don’t know that they view that as a hard cap. But at this point… yeah, not many options. Brendan Rodgers, Paul DeJong, and Jose Iglesias are the only everyday-ish infielders left in FA.

Justin: No actual question here.   Just sharing a fun fact. By Roster Resource projected starting lineups, the Pirates currently have the 3rd oldest in baseball.  Nothing wrong with that per se – if you can play, you can play.  The Phillies and Dodgers prove that – but seems not great spot for a rebuilding middling team!

Jason Martinez: That’s mostly because of Cutch and Pham. And I really do love what those two bring to a lineup/clubhouse. If you’re gonna rely on mostly unproven players, having those two guys leading the way is important. Overall numbers won’t be great (.700-.725 OPS in 400-450 PA is likely) but I think quality of at-bats, preparation, etc. will influence the rest of the lineup.

Dodgers Blue: RE early question on Pavin Smith – what do the DBacks do if Adrian Del Castillo really rakes in AAA?  Do they expose Herrera to waiver wire with no options left – or is someone else moved out?

Jon Becker: Mike Hazen said they view Del Castillo as a catcher so backup catcher is the only spot he’s in the running for out of camp, but if there’s an injury or he really forces the issue with the bat they could absolutely call him up to DH a lot to keep his bat in the lineup. Rene Pinto is also out of options and I’d be surprised if the Diamondbacks risked losing two good depth catchers in Pinto and Herrera straight out of camp.

Rose: I like Festa but there seems to be a disproportionate about of hype for him to win that 5th starter spot? Doesn’t Zebby Matthews have just as good, maybe better, chance?

Jason Martinez: Festa has the most upside of all the back-of-rotation candidates so, of course, there is gonna be an expectation that he’s in there over someone like Paddack, who has been hurt and not very impressive. But Paddack is also out of options so they need to figure out right away if he can return to pre-injury form before moving on. And Festa can wait his turn in AAA and compete with Zebby to be “next in line”. Rookie pitchers aren’t making 30+ starts these days, anyways, so having one in the Opening Day rotation has become less and less likely.

MTF: Does Pivetta find a team soon?  Which teams fit best?

Jon Becker: Yes, but only because the season starts pretty soon! Even despite adding Severino and Springs the A’s still have the worst projected SP WAR, but I would be very surprised to see them sign another high-AAV deal and give up another draft pick. Maybe the Angels (fifth-worst projection) or Orioles (eighth-worst)?

Chris: McCann seems like the last viable option for Yanks backup C and RH platoon w Wells.  I guess still asking for too much?

Jason Martinez: It’s either him, Yasmani Grandal, or Luke Maile at this point. Or maybe they really love Alex Jackson. Can’t be too many options for those guys so Yankees might just be waiting for the price to come down.

Phil: Why don’t more teams piggyback young starting pitchers in order to control innings and get experience?  Seems like the Tigers, for one, could easily piggyback Jobe and Mize.

Jon Becker: A couple reasons for this, I think. One is that the pitchers themselves wouldn’t be fans of this; starters want to start and know exactly when they’re pitching. So even if you say “you’re coming in for the fourth inning” that’s a wide range of possible times. The second is that the roster limits — even with 13 pitchers instead of 12, and of course there was a time when it was 11, and so on — make it hard to use two pitchers for one rotation spot giving you six innings every five games.

Rose: % Chance Robert Garcia is the Rangers Closer by the end of the year?

Jason Martinez: I’d guess it’s higher than anyone else on the current roster. I still think there’s a chance they bring back David Robertson or sign someone like Kenley Jansen. Maybe Kendall Graveman is an option. He’s someone who is good enough to close once he’s back to full health. Of course, there’s also a chance someone who most people have never heard of is closing for them in August.

Dodgers Blue: Do you think the Cubs feel they are set with their rotation?  I was surprised they didn’t go after Flaherty or Scherzer.  Do you think they still have something up their sleeve?

Jon Becker: If they could find a way to get Cease or King then I’m sure they would, since those are clear upgrades over what they’ve got. Not sure they’d view Pivetta as enough of one (or one at all, plus they’d have to give up a draft pick), and there’s certainly not any real reason for them to add Quintana, Heaney, Gibson, Lynn, etc.

Misinformation: Now that the owners know deferrals can energize a seemingly large group of humans to join them on a salary cap, do you think they’ll try to exploit this to sway public opinion against the players?

Jason Martinez: Oh, they know very well that it’s one of the dumb things that has “stuck to the wall”. You don’t have to be Johnnie Cochran to know how to manipulate it in your favor once you find the thing (real or not) that causes outrage. They will use it.

Holliday vs Kelenic: Is Jackson Holliday the next Jarrod Kelenic, Dustin Ackley, or Jeff Clement? (Sorry for the Mariner’s references, but when you get burned once…)

Jon Becker: Definitely a lot of alarming trends in Holliday’s first season, but he was so young that I’m not super concerned just yet, especially since he added the toe tap for the last week of the season that seemed to really work for him. Big, big year for him this year, though.

Bubba: Zips has Johnathan Rodriguez as a .797 ops hitter vs lhp.  He destroyed lhp in AAA, a roughly 1.100 ops the last two years.   He seems like the perfect replacement for David Fry but I don’t see him on your roster.  Instead you have two utility SS in Arias and Schneemann.  Why?

Jason Martinez: I consider Jhonkensy to be in David Fry’s role (1B/OF, platoon vs LHP). Arias is out of options and should stick. He’s talented. Just hasn’t put it all together in the majors. I have Schneeman as the last guy on the bench. Can play anywhere. But none of that is set in stone. Rodriguez didn’t hit in the majors last season (small sample) but I don’t think they’ve given up on him. He put up huge numbers in AAA.

Reds Enjoyer: Where does Gavin Lux end up getting most of his playing time? It really seems like McLain should just be a set-it-and-forget-it at 2B but mabye I’m wrong!

Jon Becker: There’s a lot of moving parts on that team, and where Lux and McLain play are probably the biggest unanswered questions. McLain got some outfield time in the AFL and I assume he’ll be there again in Spring Training. Maybe Lux gets some 3B/OF time, too.

Dodgers Blue: You project Chourio to lead off.  Only real legit OBP threats in the Brewers lineup seem to be William and Yelich.  Could the Brew Crew benefit from a legit lead off guy not named Chourio to put him in a better position to drive runs in for team?

Jason Martinez: It’s possible, although Chourio was over .360 OBP in the 2nd half and seemed comfortable in that role down the stretch. Of course, he also proved that he could be a 2 or 3 hitter. Yelich and Mitchell could be leadoff options. Frelick has that ability, although his BB% wasn’t good last season.

Misinformation: If you’re taking a flyer on some roster depth, what chance do think DJ LeMahieu’s major malfunction last year was mostly health and he rebounds? o/u 50-50 he plays about 100g, decent D, approximates his career .350 OBP?

Jon Becker: I don’t think he can be as bad as he just was, mostly because it’s really really hard to be that bad two years in a row. But I don’t think he’s coming anywhere near his career norms again now that he’ll be in his age-36 season. The depth chart projections of a 95 wRC+ even feel a little optimistic to me, but if he can do that he’ll be pretty useful.

Jon Becker: That’ll do it for us today, have a great weekend and will be back next week! And with the questions showing up on your screen the right way!