RosterResource Chat – 12/20/24

Jason Martinez: Welcome to another RosterResource Live Chat! It’s been another fun offseason. A lot has happened and still a long ways to go.

Feel free to browse around RosterResource if you need some inspiration for a good question or two. Here’s the updated projection for the Houston Astros with their new 1B … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/astros

Thank you for the chat!: How much is a dollar/war roughly? How overwater (surplus) is Judge’s contract? Are there any studies on the highest surplus career players (Jram? Braves players?)

Jon Becker: We have a Value metric that currently values each win at $8M, though part of our group discussion at the Winter Meetings was about $/WAR probably isn’t linear. I believe when spitting out contract numbers ZiPS uses something like $5.5M for the first win per year and then $9M for each win thereafter. No matter how you slice it, Judge has been worth a ton more than he’s earned: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/aaron-judge/15640/stats?position=OF#…

Hunter: Walker signing seems to pretty much rule out a Bregman return to Houston, where do you see him ending up? Yankees, Cubs, Tigers?

Jason Martinez: A lot of great fits but I’d think the Yankees and Blue Jays have to be the most likely teams. Not sure the Cubs want to add more $ and block Matt Shaw. If it’s not Shaw to begin the season at 3B, I’d think they get a veteran stopgap who could step into a bench role once Shaw is ready. Tigers are a great fit. But, unless they’re keeping their interest very close to the vest, it sure doesn’t seem like they’re gonna spend big on a free agent. Red Sox could also be a great fit, but I think that would be down the road if he’s still available in a month.

Mr Pasta: Hypothetically, if Toronto has by far the highest offer for Burnes but he’s hoping for SF to increase their offer but they don’t budge, do you think he is more likely to take the Jays’ money or settle for whatever the Giants are offering?

Jon Becker: Any answer I could give here would be a total guess; every player’s going to have his own priorities and $ difference required to take the highest offer even if it’s not his preferred landing spot.

wheelhouse: Ben Rice: projections real or not a major leaguer

Jason Martinez: I think he can be a solid big league regular. Maybe as soon as 2025 if they let him play every day and hit at the bottom of their lineup. But the question is whether the Yankees want to go into the season with that much uncertainty. A lot of good veteran 1B options right now (Santana, Goldschmidt, Alonso).

Ryanfromtapps: Thanks for taking the time today and for being so generally available to talk roster construction! The Mariners claimed Raposo (C) from the Blue Jays yesterday and I am curious to get your thoughts on M’s catchers. Garver only caught in 25 games last year – they can’t expect Cal to shoulder so much of the load again… can they??

Jon Becker: I haven’t seen any indication that they’re looking at adding a third catcher (or a second one and bumping Garver back to more of an emergency role), but yeah I don’t think Raleigh can realistically catch 80% of the time. Garver was Kirby’s personal catcher down the stretch so I’m guessing he sticks with that, and maybe another easier-to-catch arm (Woo?) half the time, to make it 70/30.

Brownpants: Likeliest 1B path for AZ now that Walker’s gone? Re-sign Joc and have him play there sometimes?

Jason Martinez: Seems like Pavin Smith is the guy. Small sample but he was as good as he’s ever been in 2024 (.896 OPS, 9 HR in 158 PAs). They also need to figure out a way to get Jordan Lawlar his at-bats once he’s ready. If part of that equation is that he plays some 3B, Eugenio Suarez could possibly move across the diamond and play some 1B.

Thank you for the chat!: Assuming another elite season, who ultimately goes after Vlad next offseason? Doesn’t staying in Toronto make the most sense from a fit and contract standpoint?

Jon Becker: I agree with you that Toronto makes the most sense, at least right now. If he has the best season of his career in 2025, though, I think a lot more teams are willing to overlook that he’s a first baseman and give him $400M+.

Dodgers Blue: If the Oneil Cruz in CF situation bombs, what moves do you think they make with him?  Try in a corner OF spot, move back to the dirt – and if so, back to SS?  Or do you feel they are fully committed to this for a full year (plus)?

Jason Martinez: I think they’re 100% in on him being their CF for the next 4 seasons before free agency (or until they trade him). Seemed comfortable out there and his athleticism makes the adjustment easier. Seems like moving him again during the season would not be ideal. And it’s not like they have many other options out there.

DET: Do you think Bregman or Ha-Seong Kim is a better fit in Detroit?

Jon Becker: Bregman, I think. There’s certainly risk in giving him a long deal considering how his walk rate tanked, but he’s much more of an impact bat than Kim and that’s what the Tigers need right now more than anything.

Jules: How are you feeling about the Astros offseason?

Jason Martinez: They have so much more work to do. For now, I think they’ve done OK. Paredes/Walker can combine for 60 HR. Losing Bregman and Tucker will hurt. Their projected OF is Meyers-McCormick-Taylor Trammell. So they might need to add 2 more OF and another SP.

question man: how much of your arcane roster knowledge comes from playing OOTP

Jon Becker: Shockingly, I’ve never really been able to get into OOTP. I spend too much time learning and thinking about the real stuff going on to maintain a whole other fake league along with it!

Bullock’s: It seems to me that teams do a lot more mix-and-match with their lineups and lot less straight platooning.  Similarly, more of cycling everyone through the DH rather than having a single one.  So the question: what’s your process for marking lineups / positions / platoons / etc, and has it gotten harder?

Jason Martinez: Yep, it has gotten much more difficult. Obviously, I move things around very often during the season because you can pick up on trends. And during the offseason, I’m only displaying what might be a team’s Opening Day lineup. I always try to emphasize how important the playing time projections are in addition to the roster projection. Teams really can have two “bench” players with over 400 PAs and 2-4 “lineup regulars” with under 500 PAs. But I’m always trying to think of better ways for it all to make sense to readers without having to add a lot more explanation.

Thank you for the chat!: Where does Stroman end up?

Jon Becker: The Yankees don’t *have to* trade him, but I’m sure they’d like to. He’d be another way for the A’s to get closer to the $105M magic number to be compliant with revenue sharing, or maybe the Yankees can work out an iffy-contract swap with someone. The Reds may want another starter and might want to get rid of Candelario, for example.

Cubbie Rubby: Do you think either Cassie or Alcantara become full time players this season?

Jason Martinez: Not on the Cubs, barring an injury or trade (maybe Suzuki but probably not). They’re set with Happ-PCA-Tucker-Suzuki. A trade to another team could make it more likely. Both have good trade value at the moment.

Victoria: How much money do you think the Ms would be willing to eat in a Castillo trade?

Jon Becker: Depends a lot on what they’d get in return and how they’d like to facilitate that, IMO. If they can get a real impact bat like Casas back, maybe they’re willing to pay closer to half. If it’s more a desire just to get rid of the money and buy offense on the FA market, maybe they only pay a few million a year. $22M a year really isn’t bad for Castillo considering what FA SP have been getting this offseason, so they wouldn’t have to cover much at all to move him.

SJ: If the Twins are moving Royce Lewis to 2B and have to put Brooks Lee somewhere, does that mean Julien is dead in the water?

Jason Martinez: I currently have Lee at 2B and Lewis at 3B with Julien on the bench (part-time role as 2B/1B/DH) … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/twins

Not familiar enough with Lee to know whether the Twins would prefer him at 3B over 2B. He’s a SS so I assume he’d be fine at either spot. Not sure why Lewis would move to 2B otherwise. They don’t appear to have a MLB-ready 3B prospect and they barely seem to be participating in the offseason. It might just be to give them some other options.

Dodgers Blue: I thought the A’s made the most sense for Yoan Moncada on a 1-year bounce back contract.  Now that they signed Urshela – are they out of the picture?  Or is it still possible they could sign Yoan to play third and move Urshela to a back up role?  If not the A’s, do the Marlins now make the most sense for Moncada?  And if so, would you see them using him at 2B – or moving Norby there and giving Yoan 3B?

Jon Becker: I would much rather sign Moncada than Urshela since there’s actual upside there, though they still could, I suppose, since Urshela can play a little short and first too. I like the Marlins as a fit for Moncada, I’m guessing they’d try both 2B and 3B out during spring training and decide which alignment they like best.

Kave Dingman: How do you go about filling out a roster slot when the Opening Day solution is not on the roster yet? For example – Nationals closer is currently Law/Ferrer/Garcia.

Jason Martinez: It’s one of my favorite aspects of the offseason RosterResource pages … “if we fast-forward to Opening Day with the current roster, this is likely what they’d go with”. Some are way more obvious holes and might as well have a “TBD” but that’s no fun. Some people just forget that we have months to go and still a lot of free agent and trade possibilities.

Ryan: What exactly is going on in Arizona, 89 wins last year but radio silence so far this offseason and now they lose one of their better players

Jon Becker: A good chunk of teams haven’t done much of anything this offseason, and I can get never being all that in on bringing Walker back when he ended up signing for 3y/$60M and he’s 33. I think they’ll, at minimum, trade away a starter, add a reliever or two, and add some bench depth.

John B: On the Giants, I am curious about the thinking in having McCray in left and Ramos DH. It seems like there are more obvious fits at DH (Flores, Encarnacion) and most people think McCray could use more time at AAA given his strikeout rate. Thanks

Jason Martinez: This is a great example of what I was discussing in my previous question/answer. I see McCray as the obvious “TBD” but I think it has thrown a few people off when they see him there. I’m probably going to move Wilmer Flores to DH and Ramos to LF — Wilmer had a great offensive season in 2023 — but the Giants have said they want to keep the DH spot open and rotate it between a bunch of guys. So they have some flexibility to add one more bat, regardless of position.

Not easy to show that on the RR page, but I guess that’s a good reason to host these Live Chats.

Hunter: Is there another move coming for the Phillies after signing Kepler? I’m not sure I understand the fit.

Jon Becker: It didn’t make a whole lot of sense to me either. Kepler’s a very good right fielder but hasn’t played left in the majors, and Castellanos barely has, so someone’s going to be out of position. And I’m not sure Marsh is much of a center fielder, either, so overall the defense is worse than it was yesterday. Maybe they’re more confident in their ability to move Castellanos?

SH, Jr.: Projection systems still seem to think kindly of Tyler Freeman. Fans see launch angle problems. Do you project a path to regular playing time or at least non-26th-man status for him?

Jason Martinez: He probably has to wait in line for another opportunity. Similar to Gabriel Arias. Very good prospect. Got a chance to play a lot. Never hit. Now he’s out of options and the Guardians will have to prioritize him a bit. Freeman is a good prospect. Fast. Versatile. But he didn’t hit enough so I think he gets buried down in the depth chart for now. Especially because they seem to favor Juan Brito or Angel Martinez at 2B until Bazzana is ready. He’ll still get a chance to win a bench job.

YorDaddy: Would it be smart for the Astros to move Framber sooner rather than later for a bigger haul?

Jon Becker: If the goal is only to get a bigger haul, then they should move him now to make that happen, yeah. But while Kyle Tucker is impossible to fully replace, they could at least replace his homers (and then some) with Paredes + Walker. There’s not an ace-level pitcher they’re going to add if they move Framber, since they don’t go beyond six year deals (so no Burnes), so moving Framer would leave a bigger void, IMO.

Bullock’s: Mariners need at least two infielders.  Gleyber Torres seems about their speed.  Anyone else a better fit for him?

Jason Martinez: The 2B market is so weak. Mariners seem like the best fit but I’m not sure they want to pay him what he’s worth. Same with a few other teams who could use a 2B upgrade. Maybe he’d take a 1-year deal and try again next offseason. Still seems like the Yankees are the best fit for him.

George: Would you move CJ Abrams to the outfield if you’re the Nats and look to move Jacob Young? or just say you’re going to not win this year might as well see if he can stick at short?

Jon Becker: I think that’s something to consider down the line, but without anyone who’s pushing him for SS time right now, might as well keep him there. Second base could also make sense.

Trade Simulator: Hey Jason, wanted to circle back on my trade simulator question from a couple weeks ago. Did that get any traction during your FG meetup?

Jason Martinez: We discussed some smaller projects and one very big project that would pretty much cover a lot of things of this nature. Not exactly a trade simulator but you’d be able to filter a lot more roster and RosterResource-related data and compare players by contract, WAR, projected WAR, age, etc. Not sure of the ETA but I’m hoping to have something like this by next offseason.

Phil: Who is the likeliest opening day second baseman for the Red Sox?

Jon Becker: Even though we’ve got Hamilton projected, I’d say it’s probably Campbell. We just don’t love to project top prospects to win a job until we get some more clarity during Spring Training, especially if there’s someone around like Hamilton who played pretty well.

Jon Becker: I’ll take a few in a row here while Jason’s away from his keyboard…

Phil: With Dan’s Tigers ZIPS forecast coming out today, what do you 2 think the Tigers should do this offseason? Seems like a .500 team with room to improve, but, also a # of young guys you may not want to block. Seems like an SP, 1 IF, 1 OF (Teoscar?) would go a long way.

Jon Becker: I agree with you that they feel .500ish. I think Hinch did a really good job of mixing and matching and getting the most out of his roster, but that’s not inherently repeatable. SP depth looks pretty good but they could use another higher-floor guy to pair with Skubal, and they definitely need a big bat for the middle of the order.

Doc: If you’re the Mets and you need to use a corner INF position for a power bat, do you:  (a) resign Pete, (b) sign Bregman and shift Vientos, (c) look to the trade market (e.g., Arenado, Naylor), or (d) something more interesting?

Jon Becker: I would probably go with (c), assuming I can line up with Cleveland for Naylor on a fair package. Much lower risk than signing an older free agent for multiple years.

Dr. J: Mookie can’t play SS again, can he? Edman is ok for a fill in–but he’s not full-time…and the SS FA market looks to be pretty slim.  What do you see as realistic options for the Dodgers at SS?

Jason Martinez: Mookie as the SS didn’t go great last season and, yet, they say they’re doing it again. So I’m going to take their word for it. And also trust that Mookie knows it didn’t go well and he’s the kind of player that will put in the work to improve. There weren’t very many options if they weren’t willing to go all in on Willy Adames so I think they figured this was the best route. At least for 2025.

Dodgers Blue: Are you buying Clay Holmes, Starting Pitcher?  Rumors are Mets are still looking at FA Market – and they already have Megill/Peterson (both with 1 option left) and who looked pretty good last year, and Blackburn/Canning (both with no options left). I get none of these names are game-changers, but especially IF the Mets sign another locked in rotation arm to go with Montas and Senga, which guys are the odd men out in this equation?

Jon Becker: It sounds like the Mets have a plan for him and it’s not just “we’re going to stretch you out and see what happens” so sure, I buy it. I think Senga, Peterson, Montas, and Holmes have four spots, and they could go to a six-man. So two spots for Blackburn, Canning, and Megill. Blackburn could be traded and either or both of the latter two could end up in the bullpen, though

Jules: Jason, do the Astros trade Framber Valdez for OF?

Jason Martinez: No, I still don’t think the plan was to trade both. They’ll keep Framber and wait out the free agent market for an OF. Jesse Winker makes sense. Maybe Alex Verdugo. David Peralta was really good last season. All would be good fits in LF.

YorDaddy: I know the Dodgers just won with pretty much wire to wire dominance, but with this new “half the teams make the playoffs” era of MLB, do you see team-building dynamics change a bit where more “okay” teams try to marginally improve to a 85-90 win team, sneak into the playoffs, and make some noise ala 2023 Rangers?

Jon Becker: I think we’re already seeing a lot more of this, which seems to be good for players getting signed sooner/to bigger contracts, as well as players wanting to go somewhere there’s a reasonable expectation of them winning. The Marlins and White Sox are the only two teams with no real intention of winning in 2025, and I think there would be quite a few more if there were only 8 or 10 playoff teams.

josh: i might be in the minority, but i really like what the astros have done. The first option would have been to extend Tucker and Bregman, but since the owner is unwilling to do that, this plan seemed the next best option. They increased MLB and prospect depth and now have payroll flexibility next year and beyond. From a resource allocation/roster building perspective, it all makes sense. Am I crazy?

Jason Martinez: They’ve been to the playoffs in 9 of the last 10 seasons and have two WS rings during that span. It’s not that they don’t make bad moves but they’ve done what most teams can only hope to do. Be a playoff contender every season. Not sure I like the return for Tucker, but I don’t fault them for making the trade.

Justin: Do either of you have a virtual hall of fame ballot that you’d like to share? Thanks!

Jason Martinez: My answer is boring because I don’t really have any issues with voting in any of the guys who are likely going to fall short or will go down to the 10th season (Wagner, Abreu, Buehrle, Utley, etc). Let them all in!

Dodgers Blue: Braves BP on the surface looks like they need help. IF during ST, a guy like Waldrep looks lights out, do you consider him for a major big league ‘pen role – or simply let him continue to develop as a starter on the farm?

Jason Martinez: Sounds like they’re hoping Daysbel takes a step foward and locks down a high-leverage role. Depending on how things shake out, I think Holmes could end up as a very valuable bullpen arm if he’s not needed in the rotation. Waldrep and Smith-Shawver have the potential to dominate out of the ‘pen but they’d have to force the Braves’ hand. I think they’re fine letting them continue to develop as starters.

Desperate pirates fan: How do you think playing time is divided at catcher for the pirates? Does the most RF playing time go to a player currently in the org or someone yet to be signed?

Jason Martinez: Depends on how Endy looks as he returns from TJ surgery. My current projection … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/pirates … assumes that he’ll need to be eased back on defense but his bat needs to be in the lineup. He can hit! Thus, Endy at DH and Jason Delay as the backup catcher. Only thing we know at this point is that Joey Bart earned the starting job and should be in line for at least 55% of the starts and they really like Delay in a backup role.

Daniel: The Padres are eerily quiet, yet as always, their roster is… eccentric. Any pathways forward that make sense for them?

Jason Martinez: Other than the Soto trade that had a predictable trade partner and return, they did almost nothing last offseason either. Waited until the last minute to bring back Profar for $1MM and then didn’t trade for Cease until they were about to leave for the Dodgers series in South Korea. I was afraid this was going to happen but my guess is that they want to stay under the luxury tax threshold and they’re already right up against it. It’s possible they can’t do anything unless they trade Cease and/or Arraez. And it’s possible that they’ll wait until the Sasaki decision before they do anything at all.

RosterResource Fan: Just wanted to say Thank You! The Roster Resource is one of my favorite parts of the subscription. I used it more than Leaderboards thanks to the Walkoff.

Jason Martinez: Thank you for reading! It’s always nice to know that other people out in the world love this stuff as much as I do. And it’s the reason why this is my job now.

Jason Martinez: That’ll do it for today. Enjoy the holiday and we’ll be back next Friday for some post-Xmas/pre-New Year’s baseball talk.