Speculation about the likelihood of star Nippon Professional Baseball right-hander being likely to sign with the Dodgers — or even having a predetermined “handshake” deal to sign in L.A. once formally posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines — has drawn a sharp rebuke from his representatives. Agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman emphatically denied that there’s any truth to those rumors, telling Evan Drellich of The Athletic:
“While a bunch of executives who should know me better and do a lot of business with me insult my integrity by insinuating that I would be a part of some type of nefarious agreement, in reality, this is just poor sportsmanship.”
Much of the speculation regarding the Dodgers and Sasaki stems from the Dodgers having the largest amount of money remaining in their 2024 international bonus pool — roughly $2.5MM. There’s also the fact that the Dodgers employ a pair of high-profile Japanese stars, Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto — the latter of whom is also represented by Wolfe and Wasserman. Of course, Wolfe/Wasserman are no strangers to representing high-profile international talent. They’ve also represented NPB stars like Kodai Senga and Seiya Suzuki, among others, in recent years.
MLB commissioner Rob Manfred suggested this week that Sasaki’s posting will likely stretch into the 2025 signing period, which throws a wrench into the thinking behind the Dodgers having an edge due to their remaining amount of international pool space. When the 2025 signing period kicks off on Jan. 15, the Dodgers will be tied with the Giants for the smallest pool in the game at $5,146,200, per Baseball America. (The Dodgers forfeited two draft picks and $1MM in international pool space when signing Ohtani last offseason.)
All clubs are able to acquire additional bonus pool space, which is tradeable in $250K increments. However, a club can only acquire up to 60% of its initial pool allotment. For the Dodgers, that means they’ll be capped at offering a bonus in the vicinity of $8.25MM to Sasaki, and even that would require trading plenty of assets in order to acquire the maximum $3.09MM in extra space they can add. Each of the Reds, Tigers, Marlins, Twins, Brewers, A’s, Mariners and Rays, meanwhile will start the 2025 period with pools of $7.555MM. The Padres, another commonly speculated landing spot for Sasaki, will begin the 2025 period with a $6.26MM pool.
In theory, any of those teams with a $7.555MM pool could offer a maximum bonus of just over $12MM if they succeed in acquiring the full 60% of possible additional space. The Padres and others in their bracket could top out at just over $10MM.
In practice, however, it’s unlikely another club would be able to acquire such a weighty slate of international funds. Teams throughout the league continue to thumb their nose at the supposed rules barring them from negotiating advance deals with teenage talent on the international free agent market. Most clubs have already committed the majority of their 2025 pools on handshake deals with teenage prospects in Latin America. Whichever club signs Sasaki will likely do so at the cost of reneging on existing agreements with amateurs in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela and other Latin American countries. Similarly, teams that don’t feel they have a real chance to sign Sasaki will be reluctant to trade significant chunks of their bonus pool, given that so many of those dollars are effectively committed elsewhere.
Baseball America’s Ben Badler took a comprehensive look at the ripple effects of Sasaki’s signing potentially pushing into next year’s period last week, before Manfred had publicly suggested that was likely. As Badler reports, the Dodgers and Padres have committed less of their 2025 pool to Latin American agreements than most clubs around the league, likely due to their hope that Sasaki would be posted and they’d be positioned to make the best offer.
However, it’s also likely that there will be clubs that are willing to scrap their existing verbal agreements in order to make a full-fledged pursuit of Sasaki. Some of those teams will inherently have more to offer the right-hander. The trickle-down effect could see players who thought they’d be signing with a Sasaki bidder instead explore last-minute deals with other clubs, creating a domino effect throughout the Latin American market.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently tackled this issue as well, exploring the many pitfalls of a flawed international free agent system the league and MLBPA have yet to sufficiently address. As he notes, it feels patently ridiculous that a player like Sasaki, who has dominated in NPB for the past four seasons and just turned 23, is categorized alongside a 16-year-old prospect from Latin America. Rosenthal suggested the league separate Sasaki from international bonus pools but not make him an unrestricted free agent; rather, cap his bonus at the $7.555MM sum the top teams will have in next year’s signing period. That’s an imperfect solution in and of itself, of course. It could also very well push Sasaki toward one of the widely expected landing spots (L.A. or San Diego) anyhow; all teams would effectively be on an even playing field, and a West Coast, win-now club would quite possibly hold more appeal than a Midwest team with less certain playoff aspirations.
There’s no perfect solution that can be put forth in the coming weeks. Sasaki’s decision to leave literally hundreds of millions of dollars on the table — Yamamoto waited until he was 25 years old to shed his “amateur” status and commanded a $325MM deal in L.A. — creates an impossible predicament for Major League Baseball and its current international amateur setup.
This situation will assuredly be a talking point, if not the focal point, during ensuing discussions regarding a potential international draft in the next wave of collective bargaining talks between MLB and the Players Association. For now, it’s a messy situation that’ll result in plenty of accusations, finger-pointing, and likely some jilted Latin American prospects who are left scrambling for new arrangements.
