Core Needs Assessment and Grading
Starting Pitching Depth (Grade: B+)
Need: The 2024 rotation featured Hunter Greene (3.8 WAR, 2.75 ERA, 3.47 FIP), Nick Lodolo (2.2 WAR, 3.93 ERA), and Andrew Abbott (1.2 WAR, 3.72 ERA), but injuries and inconsistency beyond these three limited the unit to a collective 11.2 WAR (17th in MLB). Depth was critical to withstand inevitable injuries.
Action: Adding Brady Singer (3.1 WAR, 3.51 ERA, 4.09 FIP in 2024) bolsters the rotation. Singer’s groundball rate (47.8%) suits Great American Ball Park’s hitter-friendly confines better than flyball pitchers, though his 4.09 FIP suggests some regression from his ERA. Retaining Nick Martinez (3.5 WAR, 3.10 ERA, 3.88 FIP) via the qualifying offer adds versatility—he can start or relieve.
Analysis: ZiPS projects Greene at 2.8 WAR, Martinez at 2.5 WAR, and Singer at 2.2 WAR for 2025, reflecting slight regression but still a solid top four with Lodolo and Abbott. Depth improves, but the Reds didn’t add a true ace or a fifth starter beyond Graham Ashcraft (0.7 WAR in 2024). Grade reflects significant improvement without fully resolving injury risk.
Outfield Production (Grade: B)
Need: The 2024 outfield ranked 25th in MLB with 2.1 WAR, driven by poor offensive output (wRC+ of 87) and inconsistent defense. TJ Friedl (1.5 WAR) was solid, but Jake Fraley (0.6 WAR) and Will Benson (-0.4 WAR) underperformed.
Action: Austin Hays (1.1 WAR in 2024, 97 wRC+) was signed. Hays posted a .255/.316/.395 line with average defense in right field. His 2023 season (2.8 WAR, 114 wRC+) suggests upside if he rebounds.
Analysis: Hays upgrades right field over Benson, but his 2024 wRC+ (97) is league-average, and his injury history (63 games in 2024) is a concern. Friedl and Fraley remain, with Stuart Fairchild as depth. ZiPS projects Hays at 1.5 WAR, improving the unit to ~5 WAR total if healthy. The grade reflects a moderate upgrade without a high-impact bat.
Infield Stability (Grade: C+)
Need: Injuries to Matt McLain (missed 2024) and inconsistent play from Jonathan India (1.7 WAR, 102 wRC+) left the infield reliant on Elly De La Cruz (4.5 WAR, 104 wRC+, 26 SB). First base (28th in MLB WAR) and second base needed clarity.
Action: Traded India for Gavin Lux (2.1 WAR, 104 wRC+ post-All-Star 2024). Lux projects as the second baseman, with McLain (ZiPS: 2.5 WAR) returning at shortstop or utility. De La Cruz stays at short, and Jeimer Candelario (0.8 WAR) holds third. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CES, -0.1 WAR in 2024) or Spencer Steer (1.8 WAR) compete at first.
Analysis: Lux’s .304/.372/.447 post-break surge suggests potential, but his career wRC+ (92) tempers expectations (ZiPS: 1.8 WAR). McLain’s return is a wild card—his 2023 (2.8 WAR in 89 games) indicates upside. First base remains a weak spot (projected ~1 WAR). The grade reflects a net gain but unresolved questions.
Bullpen Reliability (Grade: C)
Need: The 2024 bullpen posted a 4.13 ERA (15th in MLB) and 4.5 WAR (14th), with Alexis Diaz (1.2 WAR, 3.30 ERA) as the closer. Injuries and inconsistency beyond Diaz and Tony Santillan (0.9 WAR) were issues.
Action: Lost Fernando Cruz (0.3 WAR) but retained core relievers like Diaz, Santillan, Emilio Pagan (0.5 WAR), and Lucas Sims (0.2 WAR). Taylor Rogers (0.8 WAR in 2024) was acquired from the Giants late in spring (assumed based on some sources).
Analysis: Rogers’ 2.42 ERA in 2024 adds a high-leverage lefty, but his 3.62 FIP suggests luck. The unit projects to ~5 WAR, similar to 2024, with no major additions beyond Rogers. Grade reflects stability but no significant improvement.
A projected 84-78 record could be expected.
