NL West 2025 predictions – by G. Scott Thomas

There isn’t much of a surprise here.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have won the National League West’s divisional crown every year but one since 2013. They seized 2024’s world championship with surprising ease. And they have continued to spend money with wild abandon prior to the upcoming season.

So it’s not exactly a shock that my history-based prediction system anticipates another NL West title for the Dodgers in 2025.

My system compares each club’s record during the previous three seasons (2022-2024) against the corresponding three-year marks for 1,318 teams that played in the era of free agency (which began in 1976). My findings forecast the upcoming standings.

My assumption is that parallels from the past — specifically, the 50 closest matches (CMs) for each present-day club — can offer hints about the future.

Forty-four of the Dodgers’ 50 CMs topped .500 the following year. Thirty-six of those similar squads went on to qualify for the playoffs, 14 won league titles, and eight emerged as World Series champions.

I awarded points for each rung of this ladder — one for exceeding .500, an additional two for the next step, then an extra three and four for the final two rungs.

The Dodgers earned 190 points through the CM process, stamping them as runaway favorites to win the NL West. Here’s the predicted order of finish:

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. San Diego Padres
4. San Francisco Giants
5. Colorado Rockies

Look below for breakdowns for all five teams. Each summary starts with the club’s 2025 prediction points, then its 2024 record, and then the next-season results for its 50 CMs. The final line discloses the very closest match of all. (The next-year record for the closest CM may be at odds with my overall prediction, which is okay. The cumulative score for all 50 CMs is what really counts.)

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