The most recent installment of this newsletter offered my forecast for October’s American League playoffs. The Houston Astros emerged as a very slight favorite to defeat the Baltimore Orioles in the AL Championship Series.
Who will the National League send against the Astros in this hypothetical postseason? That will be decided below.
The NL’s playoff matchups are based on the regular-season forecasts that I issued earlier this month. Here are the relevant links:
The NL’s three divisional champions, according to my forecast, will be the Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, and Milwaukee Brewers. They’re seeded in that order, in line with the points they were awarded by my history-based prediction system.
The National League’s three wild-card teams, again in seeding order, will be the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres, and Atlanta Braves.
Byes are given to the two top-seeded teams in each league, who await the two wild-card winners. Then come a pair of division series, the league’s championship series, and, of course, the World Series.
I ran simulations of each National League playoff series 1,000 times, based on the total number of prediction points that my computer assigned to each club. The team that won the majority of my simulations advanced to the next round.
You can see the predicted results below, all except the final contest between Houston and the NL champ. That comes on Friday.
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Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers (3 seed, first place in NL Central, 104 prediction points) vs. Atlanta Braves (6 seed, second place in NL East, 102 prediction points)
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Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Brewers 517, Braves 483
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Bottom line: Milwaukee’s point total is only the fifth-highest in the league, yet it’s handed the 3 seed because of its divisional title. The resulting matchup is essentially even — with just two prediction points separating the Brewers and Braves — though the computer favors Milwaukee.
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Matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks (4 seed, second place in NL West, 111 prediction points) vs. San Diego Padres (5 seed, third place in NL West, 110 prediction points)
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Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Padres 513, Diamondbacks 487
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Bottom line: Two NL West foes are pitted in this dogfight. Arizona is a single point better than San Diego, according to the prediction system. But San Diego emerges victorious in a majority of the 1,000 simulations.
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Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers (1 seed, first place in NL West, 190 prediction points) vs. San Diego Padres (5 seed, third place in NL West, 110 prediction points)
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Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Dodgers 630, Padres 370
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Bottom line: The Padres carried the Dodgers to the full limit of five games in last year’s NLDS, but a repeat seems unlikely in 2025. Los Angeles holds a decisive lead of 80 prediction points over San Diego, establishing the Dodgers as heavy favorites.
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Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies (2 seed, first place in NL East, 128 prediction points) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (3 seed, first place in NL Central, 104 prediction points)
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Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Phillies 507, Brewers 493
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Bottom line: The Phillies could be called the “best of the rest” — their total of 128 points was the highest in either league outside of the Dodgers’ superhuman 190 — yet the computer expects them to struggle against the Brewers. Philadelphia will advance, though with difficulty.
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Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers (1 seed, first place in NL West, 190 prediction points) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (2 seed, first place in NL East, 128 prediction points)
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Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Dodgers 580, Phillies 420
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Bottom line: The NLCS might be seen as a substitute World Series. My prediction system considers the Phillies to be better than any team in the American League, so they would seem to pose the strongest test for the Dodgers. Can Philadelphia wrest the NL title from Los Angeles? It doesn’t seem likely.
