Polymarket, the decentralized prediction market platform that uses blockchain technology to enable users to bet on the outcome of real-world events, has predicted the NBA award winners this season for MVP, Sixth Man of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Most Improved Player, and other categories.
According to Polymarket’s forecast for the 2025 NBA championship, the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder are also tied for the best chance to win the title, at 28% apiece, respectively. The percentages for all 30 teams are featured below.
Polymarket 2025 NBA Championship Forecast
| NBA Team | Probability |
| Boston Celtics | 28% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 28% |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 15% |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 9% |
| Denver Nuggets | 6% |
| Golden State Warriors | 4% |
| New York Knicks | 4% |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 2% |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 1% |
| Los Angeles Clippers | <1% |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | <1% |
| Houston Rockets | <1% |
| Indiana Pacers | <1% |
| Sacramento Kings | <1% |
| Miami Heat | <1% |
| Detroit Pistons | <1% |
| Orlando Magic | <1% |
| San Antonio Spurs | <1% |
| Atlanta Hawks | <1% |
| Chicago Bulls | <1% |
| Dallas Mavericks | <1% |
| New Orleans Pelicans | <1% |
| Portland Trail Blazers | <1% |
| Philadelphia 76ers | <1% |
| Phoenix Suns | <1% |
| Toronto Raptors | <1% |
| Utah Jazz | <1% |
| Brooklyn Nets | <1% |
| Washington Wizards | <1% |
| Charlotte Hornets | <1% |
Polymarket MVP Forecast
Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has a Polymarket-best 83% chance to win the MVP award this season. In 62 games (all starts) this campaign, he’s averaging a career-high 32.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.8 steals, 1.0 blocks, and 34.2 minutes per contest while shooting 52.5% from the field and 37.2% from 3-point range. Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is a distant second with a 17% probability.
Sixth Man of the Year Forecast
Celtics guard Payton Pritchard is the frontrunner to win NBA Sixth Man of the Year. Polymarket shows the fifth-year veteran with a 75% chance to take home the award. In 63 games off the bench this season, he’s averaging career highs of 14.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 28.1 minutes per contest.
Defensive Player of the Year Forecast
Cavaliers forward Evan Mobley is the odds-on favorite to win NBA Defensive Player of the Year. The Polymarket forecast has Mobley with a 69% chance, ranking ahead of Hawks guard Dyson Daniels (13%) and Grizzlies center Jaren Jackson Jr. (13%). Mobley is averaging a career-high 18.5 points, 9.3 boards, 3.1 dimes, and 1.6 blocks through 57 games.
Most Improved Player of the Year Forecast
Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham currently has the best chance to win NBA Most Improved Player of the Year, leading Atlanta’s Dyson Daniels (15%) and Denver Nuggets guard Christian Braun (2%). Cunningham is averaging career highs of 25.6 points, 9.3 assists, and 35.3 minutes through 60 games with Detroit this campaign.
Rookie of the Year Forecast
Spurs guard Stephon Castle has the highest probability to win NBA Rookie of the Year. San Antonio’s No. 4 overall pick from last year’s draft has an 80% chance to win the award, followed by Grizzlies guard Jaylen Wells (9%) and Hawks forward Zaccharie Risacher (5%).
