For the last six offseasons, I’ve spent (too) much of my time compiling my Offseason Matrices Google doc, a project that Davy Andrews so kindly described as “a work of absolute madness.”
The document has evolved hugely since its first iteration in the 2018-19 offseason, with more tabs, better formatting and color-coding, linking to sources, and many more improvements to make it more user friendly and comprehensive. Now, in this weekly article, I’ll be running down the latest updates, talking through how the latest signings and trades have had downstream effects on the team that actually acquired the player, as well as others who didn’t. The goal here isn’t to rehash every move that happens; that’s what the initial FanGraphs coverage was for! Rather, my aim is to add some additional context and comments and summarize how the landscape of the offseason has changed with the moves. After all, that’s what all the color-coding on the Matrix is for.
Biggest Rumors of the Week
• Juan Soto appears to be getting closer to a decision, with at most five teams still in the (known) running: the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Blue Jays. Mystery teams are always possible, I suppose, but now that the bidding has reportedly hit $600 million, I highly doubt it. Soto has begun to eliminate teams, though we’re not sure which teams are out and how many remain. Per Jeff Passan of ESPN, we’re expected to know Soto’s destination by the beginning of the Winter Meetings on Monday at the latest.
• The Yankees appear to be preparing for life after Soto, though they certainly hope it won’t come to that. They reportedly have met with free agent starting pitchers Corbin Burnes and Max Fried, and could push hard to sign infielder Willy Adames if Soto leaves. On the trade side of things, they’ve showed interest in Cubs outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger to replace Soto as a lefty bat in the middle of the lineup. Bellinger could also fill their opening at first base and might be an option even if Soto returns. Speaking of first base options, earlier in the offseason, the Yankees checked in on Pete Alonso and were one of the teams to express interest in Christian Walker.
• Trader Jerry is at it again, with Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reporting that the Mariners have had preliminary discussions with the Phillies about Alec Bohm and the Cubs about Nico Hoerner. Teams will have conversations with dozens of free agents and about dozens of trade targets, so don’t draw any conclusions about these specific players just yet. However, these two nuggets signal that Jerry Dipoto is looking to upgrade at third base and second base, perhaps aggressively. Also, big ups to Dave Dombrowski for reportedly asking for Logan Gilbert or George Kirby in exchange for Bohm.
• Korean second baseman Hye-seong Kim has officially been posted for MLB clubs, and he now has until 5 p.m. EST on January 3 to reach a deal. He’s was already linked to the Mariners pre-posting, and other teams should surely follow now that he’s officially available. Eric Longenhagen has him graded as a 40 FV player who may not have a ton of upside but should represent a relatively low-cost option. Ha-Seong Kim (no relation, though they did play together in Korea) signed for four years and $28 million when he came stateside before the 2021 season, and Hye-seong should end up around there.
A’s Sign Luis Severino for Three Years, $67 Million
Effect on the A’s
Well folks, we’ve got our first true “he signed WHERE???” of the offseason. The A’s are showing they’re at least somewhat-committed to fielding a more competitive team in 2025. Plus, $67 million for Severino is also a strong indication that it might take something of a premium to lure players to a minor-league ballpark for any length of time, especially a player like Severino. This’ll almost certainly be the largest deal the A’s sign this offseason, but for the first time in a few years, you don’t have to squint too hard to see the makings of a decent team.
Effect on Other Teams
I’m not sure how many other suitors Severino had, nor do I know how many of them had the A’s on their radar as potentially vying for him alongside them. Whatever the case may be, such teams are going to turn their attention to similar pitchers, perhaps others with qualifying offers attached, such as Nick Pivetta and Sean Manaea, or an unencumbered pitcher like Nathan Eovaldi.
Effect on Similar Players
Those similar guys I just mentioned are probably doing cartwheels after learning Severino signed for $23 million a year. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN had the highest contract prediction (on the Total Spending Projection tab) for Severino of the ones I was able to aggregate, and he was low by $8.5 million. That doesn’t necessarily mean that Pivetta, Manaea, and Eovaldi will sign for many millions more than expected, but one fewer pitcher on the board — signed by an unexpected team, no less — should increase demand for those three.
Mets Sign Frankie Montas for Two Years, $34 Million
Effect on the Mets
This doesn’t close off the Mets from adding to their rotation; they’ve still got at least two rotation spots to fill, with Kodai Senga joining Montas and likely David Peterson as locks for the starting five. This move should also solidify José Buttó as a reliever, even if he’s stretched out during spring training.
Effect on Other Teams
Might this get rivals calling about Paul Blackburn? We know the Mets need as many starters as they can get, but Blackburn has fallen further down the depth chart with the Montas addition, and his going on the IL for leaking spinal fluid meant the Mets couldn’t evaluate him much after acquiring him from the A’s at the trade deadline.
Effect on Similar Players
Montas’ snagging $34 million over two years (with an opt out!) seemed to help out Matthew Boyd (more on him later), and that $17 million average annual value ought to be good news for similarly ranked players like Max Scherzer, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Charlie Morton, Justin Verlander, and Michael Lorenzen. I think Montas will outdo all of those guys in AAV, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see most of them beat their median contract prediction, which you can find on the Total Spending Projection tab.
Cubs Sign Matthew Boyd for Two Years, $14.5 Million
Effect on the Cubs
Likelier than not, the Boyd addition will end the Cubs’ pursuit of starting pitching, at least when it comes to adding other mid-tier arms. Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and Boyd should all be guaranteed starting jobs, and I think the Cubs would only bump Javier Assad if they were able to land a true impact starter like Garrett Crochet, Max Fried, or Jack Flaherty.
Effect on Other Teams
Like Blackburn with the Mets, Assad could end up as a trade target for teams in need of starting pitching depth, though I’m not sure how willing the Cubs would be to part with him. As I said, I think Assad has a leg up on the competition for the fifth starter spot. However, perhaps the Cubs would be more likely to trade him if he were part of a deal to land a better starter, such as the aforementioned Crochet. Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, and Hayden Wesneski are now on the outside looking in for rotation spots. Despite Chicago’s strong depth, as a rule, I generally don’t mark teams’ columns on the FA Matrix with maroon cells (denoting filled positions) for pitchers, since you can never have too many.
Effect on Similar Players
Mid-rotation arms are getting paid this winter!
Red Sox Sign Aroldis Chapman for One Year, $10.75 Million
Effect on the Red Sox
The Red Sox entered the offseason with quite a lot of work to do in their bullpen. That said, Boston has to be pretty comfortable with its lefties now that Chapman and Justin Wilson are in the fold. Brennan Bernardino and Cam Booser are also on the 40-man.
Effect on Other Teams
We don’t know of any other teams who were interested in Chapman, but with clearly the second-best lefty reliever off the board, there’s now a big chasm between big fish Tanner Scott and the rest of the lefties for teams looking to add a southpaw. Besides Scott, there’s also Scott Alexander, Ryan Yarbrough, Danny Coulombe, Drew Smyly, Andrew Chafin, Jalen Beeks, and Hoby Milner, among others. Plenty of interesting names there, but only Chapman has the high-octane gas that Scott also possesses.
Effect on Similar Players
That $10.75 million is a healthy contract for Chapman, and it should set a good target for veteran high-leverage arms outside of the big four of Scott, Jeff Hoffman, Clay Holmes, and Carlos Estévez. Blake Treinen, Kenley Jansen, Kirby Yates, and David Robertson should all be aiming for at least $10 million.
Rangers Sign Kyle Higashioka for Two Years, $12.5 Million
Effect on the Rangers
The Heim-Higashioka timeshare takes the Rangers out of the catcher market for the rest of the offseason. (Their column now has maroon cells for all catchers who should get MLB deals.) It also gives them an obvious trade chip in Sam Huff, who’s hit well in limited MLB opportunities for the past four years, but has never been highly regarded behind the dish.
Effect on Other Teams
Huff’s entry onto the trade block somewhat offsets the inability for other teams to sign Higashioka, though again, Huff probably isn’t a catcher and certainly doesn’t have the reputation Higgy has back there. The catcher market is the one position player group that’s moved quickly in free agency; Higashioka, Jacob Stallings, Austin Hedges, Danny Jansen, and Travis d’Arnaud are now all off the board. Carson Kelly, Yasmani Grandal, Gary Sánchez, Elias Díaz, and James McCann are the best options left.
Effect on Similar Players
Of those best options I just mentioned, Kelly is the only option left who strikes me as likely to sign a multi-year deal. Higashioka essentially matched his median contract prediction of two years and $14 million, signing for just $500,000 less. That’s a helpful data point for Kelly, whose median prediction is two years at $14 million.
Rays Sign Danny Jansen for One Year, $8.5 Million
Effect on the Rays
Along with the Rangers, the Rays now have their catcher timeshare settled for 2025, with the lefty-hitting Ben Rortvedt and lefty-mashing Jansen forming a natural platoon. For $8.5 million, Jansen could get plenty of run against righties, too, but Rortvedt should play more than a typical backup even if he’s relegated to that role. The Rays already lost René Pinto off waivers to the Orioles, so Logan Driscoll will be down in Triple-A as the top depth option.
Effect on Other Teams
If you want a catcher, options are dwindling quickly. If none of the backstops I mentioned in the Higashioka section sound particularly enticing, maybe call the Pirates and ask about Jason Delay or Henry Davis, or talk to the Phillies about Rafael Marchán or Garrett Stubbs.
Effect on Similar Players
Jansen’s contract ended up being worse than expected; his median contract prediction was two years and $18 million, so he didn’t even match the AAV. This might read as bad news for Kelly, but I think Kelly is closer to Higashioka than he is to Jansen. Kelly has a strong defensive reputation and is also coming off a better season, whereas Jansen has a concerning injury history and had a rough 2023 campaign.
