South Africa won’t hold all the aces at Twickenham on Saturday. They have most of them, but the troubled underdogs possess a trump card, too. Marcus Smith is a beacon of English hope against a vastly superior force.
The 25-year-old Harlequins fly-half is the magician capable of pulling a rabbit from his hat and stunning the world champions in front of a full house. Amid a period of collective turmoil for England, he has prospered.
The one-time poster boy of the sport in this country has become the man of the moment. The Twickenham crowd will be with him today, willing him to upset the odds. He is the one they will look to for inspiration. He is the one they will believe can make a miracle happen.
Last weekend, the playmaker produced a dazzling performance in attack, in the pulsating clash with Australia which the visitors won 42-37. Smith is evidently infused with self-belief, having been given a run of starts at 10.
There was an assist with a clever kick to set up Ollie Sleightholme and a hand in three of England’s four other tries against the Wallabies. In the final quarter, he shifted to full back but at least stayed on, after supporters had booed in anticipation of his removal.
Rewind three years and there is encouraging evidence of Smith’s match-winning potential in this fixture. In 2021, England beat the Springboks — world champions then as they are now — by a single point, 27-26. It was Smith who kicked the winning penalty, a minute from time, but most notably it was his composed decision-making in the build-up which had paved the way for the decisive shot.
Marcus Smith will be a beacon of English hope against a vastly superior force in South Africa on Saturday
When England famously beat South Africa in 2021, it was Smith who kicked the winning penalty
Smith is evidently infused with self-belief, having been given a run of starts at 10 by Roses head coach Steve Borthwick (left)
That was proof of his ability to close out close encounters and should be a factor in Steve Borthwick’s deliberations, when he considers the use of his bench in the second half on Saturday.
Earlier this year, it was Smith’s late drop goal which secured a famous, last-gasp win over Ireland — the one statement result of the current head coach’s tenure. So, the home fans will believe that the gifted Quin can have the last word again — time will tell if Borthwick agrees.
History provides further hope for England’s current squad, who have been circling the wagons after losing narrowly to New Zealand and the Australians over the past fortnight.
There are clear parallels with 2012, when Stuart Lancaster’s side lost to the Wallabies and South Africa, which led to fierce criticism and intense pressure on the regime, before an epic, upset win against the world-champion All Blacks, which emphatically lifted the siege.
This month, the narrative in the hosts’ camp has been all about having the confidence to stick with their brave-new-world ethos, after the tactical revamp which took place during the Six Nations.
But this week, George Furbank has been dropped — to facilitate the recall of Freddie Steward at full back — having been one of those whose selection epitomised the liberation movement.
Borthwick emphasised that this rethink was forced in part by law tweaks and officiating directives. However, the upshot of it is that England are embarking on a change of strategic course, at a time of impending danger, which is far from ideal.
It is impossible to exaggerate the threat posed by these Boks. Rassie Erasmus has opted for near-total rotation and the line-up for this marquee Test appears far more formidable than the starting XV and match-day 23 which blasted Scotland into submission despite being miles short of their best.
Smith has the ability to unlock South Africa’s defence
Erasmus eased into familiar mind-games mode by talking up the pressure on Borthwick, but he’s right, there is. There is no such thing as a free pass at this rarefied level. England cannot just shift into the mindset of a mid-table team happy to compete with the elite and take the occasional significant scalp. With their vast resources, that simply won’t suffice.
The loss to Australia sent them plummeting to seventh in the world rankings and Borthwick’s stuttering team are on a run of four successive defeats — and five in their last six Tests.
They can’t keep talking about closing out big games and then failing to do so. They can’t keep highlighting fine margins and think it will earn them endless breathing space. There is a growing mood of public unrest.
There is also no real expectation on Saturday, so Jamie George and his team-mates are at least relieved of that burden, which was a factor in the Wallabies game. England fans will come to Twickenham in a mood of trepidation and RFU officials will need an extra gin & tonic in the plush committee rooms before settling down to watch proceedings, in a comfortable seat but a decidedly uncomfortable situation.
England may have only lost by a single point against these rivals a year ago in Paris — before the Boks went on to retain the World Cup — but since then Borthwick’s side have struggled while South Africa have won the Rugby Championship. The omens are not good, at all.
This is widely regarded as an away banker. The visitors are supposed to win emphatically. The bookies have them as firm favourites. There is an assumption that they have the all-round repertoire to either bulldoze England, pick them apart with their kicking game, run rings around them out wide or just inflict a death-by-scrum fate.
England tend to play best when they are backed into a corner and written off. It shouldn’t be that way, but invariably it is. Adversity brings out a defiant streak and forges a powerful spirit in the ranks. Perhaps this is the day for a point-to-prove performance.
But the hosts can’t keep pointing to a lack of preparation time. They have had the best part of four weeks in camp to brush away cobwebs and smooth rough edges. A sense of raw desperation should fuel the English fire as they strive to salvage one of the worst years in recent memory. Defeat today would be England’s seventh in 11 Tests in 2024 — a dire return.
No wonder his opposite number can cite the pressure on Borthwick. It is inescapable. It should bring the best out of England and they are likely to reach greater heights today than they have so far in this Autumn Nations Series campaign. But to predict a home win is an almighty leap.
Siya Kolisi will captain a dominant South Africa team that arrives at Twickenham as heavy favourites
South Africa head coach Rassie Erasmus (middle right) has formed a team that has dominated world rugby
Smith starred for England last weekend despite the hosts suffering a comeback defeat against Australia
England have had the best part of four weeks in camp to brush away cobwebs and smooth rough edges
Only those looking through red rose-tinted specs can see an English triumph in the offing. Erasmus has a staggering range of firepower at his disposal.
Last weekend, a typical Bomb Squad blitz saw Scotland dispatched 32-15 in Edinburgh and the Springboks were probably operating at about 60 per cent of their performance capacity. They will be better against England, with a back three of Aphelele Fassi, Kurt-Lee Arendse and Cheslin Kolbe primed to run amok and capitalise on South African dominance up front.
Heaven help England. The visitors have peerless power and depth, athleticism and unity, silky skills, flair and tactical nous. They have thunderous momentum and innate motivation. On their current trajectory, they could one day go down as the greatest team who have ever played the game. That is not a wild, excessive claim.
If Smith can inspire a shock this evening, it will go down in Twickenham folklore and provide a vital boost to Borthwick and his embattled regime. On this occasion, it is all about substance over style. Any upset will do, however messy and close it may be. But English hope is wafer thin for good reason — the Boks look all but unstoppable.
