With Max Fried joining the Yankees and Garrett Crochet landing with the Red Sox, all eyes are on Corbin Burnes. The 2021 NL Cy Young winner was always, arguably, the best starter up for grabs this winter on either the free agent market or the trade block. Now, he might be the only ace-level pitcher left available.
On Wednesday, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand suggested the Blue Jays and Giants would be the two most “aggressive” teams in pursuit of Burnes, though he described the Blue Jays as the favorites. His sources were “skeptical” that San Francisco could beat Toronto in a bidding war, given that the Giants already signed Willy Adames to a seven-year, $182MM contract earlier this month. This morning, however, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the Giants, not the Blue Jays, are the “heavy favorites” to sign the All-Star right-hander.
On a similar note, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey met with agent Scott Boras late on Tuesday evening, presumably to discuss his client Burnes. Yet, Heyman does not categorize the Giants as the clear favorites, writing that both Toronto and San Francisco are making a “strong push” for the ace. He adds that four more teams are still in the mix for Burnes’s services, including his former team, the Orioles. As Heyman mentions, the Yankees and Red Sox are also thought to be interested, at least to some degree, even after adding Fried and Crochet, respectively. However, it’s not clear who the sixth team Heyman refers to could be. The Mets might have seemed like another potential landing spot, especially before they signed Juan Soto, but Tim Healey of Newsday Sports reported on Tuesday that the Mets are not expected to sign Burnes.
Turning back to the Giants, this is a team that could certainly use another top-of-the-rotation pitcher. Their starters finished 18th in ERA and 29th in innings pitched this past season. Some of their underlying numbers were more promising, such as the ninth-best SIERA in MLB, but after losing Blake Snell, it’s hard to imagine the Giants rotation, as currently constructed, could perform better in 2025. Other than ace Logan Webb, no Giants starter threw more than 125 innings in 2024. Robbie Ray is a huge question mark after missing much of the past two seasons with injuries. Jordan Hicks ran out of gas down the stretch and ultimately had to move back to the bullpen. He also dealt with shoulder issues in August and September. Kyle Harrison and Hayden Birdsong are promising young arms but have yet to prove themselves at the MLB level. Neither have Landen Roupp, Keaton Winn, or Mason Black.
At the Winter Meetings, Posey told reporters (including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area) that he has “a lot of belief” in his young pitchers and expressed hope they will “take a big step forward” in 2025. Still, the Giants could use another arm to depend on at the top of the rotation. Other than Webb, it’s not clear who on this team could start in a postseason series. Needless to say, Burnes could fill that role. If not Burnes, Pavlovic suggests the Giants are “likely” to sign another veteran starter. They haven’t been linked to many others yet, although they expressed interest in NPB ace Tomoyuki Sugano earlier this winter. According to Pavlociv, they were also in on Shane Bieber before he re-signed with the Guardians.
