Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/1/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my first solo regular season chat! It’s been a few weeks since I could occupy this slot; at this time last week, I was in the midst of a fruitless trip to the DMV, where a reservation apparently doesn’t mean what you think it means. Anyway, it’s the first of April, which means that it’s my mother’s 83rd birthday; she’s not reading this chat, but I note it merely to introduce the guarantee that none of what follows will be in the form of an April Fool’s joke. I spend enough time mixing bullshit with earnestness in my online persona that some people have enough trouble figuring out which is which, so let’s just skip that part.

Anyway, yesterday I took a look at some goings-on in the Diamondbacks rotation https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jordan-montgomery-may-be-done-as-a-diamond…

Jay Jaffe: Like, that sucker just went live while I started typing that paragraph. Don’t burn your hands. And now, on with the show…

flightsongs: Happy May Day one month early! What’s the most optimistic you’re allowing yourself to be about Dustin May this year?

Jay Jaffe: Let’s say 15 starts, some relief appearances, good performance and a spot in the postseason bullpen. Hope springs eternal!

StiebedTea: Howdy Jay! Let’s lump ’em all together and ask: Should Devers be swinging a torpedo bat right now?

Jay Jaffe: Boy, Devers is really absolutely flailing in spectacular fashion. 0-for-19 with 4 walks and 15 strikeouts. I wrote about the Red Sox third base drama a couple weeks ago (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/red-sox-third-base-drama-appears-to-be-res…), but even with Devers ramping up slowly in the wake of last season’s shoulder woes, I never envisioned he’d be this bad, and I doubt he did either.

Jay Jaffe: I’m intrigued by the torpedo bats, but I don’t think they’re the solution for somebody who’s as lost as he is

Matt VW: I get that it’s only five games, but to me Devers’s swing looks a lot like it did last fall when he was trying to play through bad shoulders. Is this just a blip or something more?

Jay Jaffe: With the caveat that I haven’t actually seen Devers swing in real time this year, I’ll note that his average bat speed is down 1.9 mph from last year (70.6 vs. 72.5) and 2.8 mph from late 2023 (73.4), and he’s getting to his fast swing less than half as often even relative to last year. So yeah, I’d be concerned that he’s not fully healthy yet, or at least not up to game speed.

StiebedTea: A Hall of Fame question that may have been asked before:* Do you think any players in the past have stayed on too long and played themselves out of the Hall of Fame (NOT a Pete Rose question)?

As in … they were a borderline candidate and then strung together a few awful, end-of-career seasons that both statistically dropped their career out of reckoning AND narratively ruined their chances because of the lasting impression they left with fans and writers as being generally below average.

*…you probably answer this often, sorry!

Jay Jaffe: Well, it may not have been what you intended but I think we can start with Rafael Palmeiro failing a PED test shortly after getting his 3,000th hit

Jay Jaffe: Beyond that, I think mainly about guys who appeared to be on HOF trajectories into their early 30s but then their careers bogged down due to injuries or decline rather than guys who blew it in their late 30s. One guy who may not have been helped who does come to mind is Graig Nettles, a fielding whiz and whose career AVG slipped below .250 — and whose JAWS slipped a few decimals further below the standard — by hanging on for his final three seasons

Jay Jaffe: He never made much of a dent in the voting (8.3% max), though, so I’m not sure he was really on track for the Hall

Jay Jaffe: Currently, I think we’ve seen Giancarlo Stanton’s HOF chances slip away amid injuries and a descent to replacement level, but he fits more into the on-a-trajectory-until mold

StiebedTea: Or is this a really a Joey Votto question?

Jay Jaffe: Votto is gonna be fine.

Randy Metz: With all of the strategic HOF voting that seems to occur, and the reduction to 10 years on ballot, your thoughts on a change that would allow someone who received at least say 60% of the vote an additional 5 years on the ballot back to 15, and not count those guys against the 10 person max? Would allow guys that are heading towards election time to flush out their candidacy without hurting other guys on ballot and potentially keep them out of ERA Committee purgatory.

Jay Jaffe: I’d have to think about that but I don’t hate the idea. Awhile back somebody suggested that instead of the 5% rule, there should be a sliding scale regarding what it takes to stay on the ballot, like maybe if you haven’t gotten to 15% by year 5, you’re done. Bonus years for getting above 50% could work too. But it’s a far too creative thought for the Hall to embrace, i fear.

Jay Jaffe: Lunch has arrived, bear with me while I try to type with my mouth full…

mmddyyyy: How has the tracker influenced voting?

Jay Jaffe: This deserves a longer response but I think it has been great for the voting process and for the Hall. The process deserves transparency, and with over 80% of voters revealing their ballots, and most of those at least giving a brief explanation for their choices — that’s a much better way of going about the voting than total secrecy. The Hall has benefitted from the attention because almost every day for roughly 2 months between Thanksgiving and the announcement, people are discussing the voting and the candidates.

carson kelly fan club: I want to be, and am, excited by the cycle yesterday, but (related and unrelated to that) there’s also a part of me that is starting to think these balls are ungodly juiced. Is that an overreaction to less than a week of games?

Jay Jaffe: Yeah I think so. We’ve seen that “ball-to-ball variance” is high enough that some batches are more juiced than others, and I think it’s important to get a larger sample before jumping to any conclusions.

Jay Jaffe: This doesn’t read to me as especially juiced

Drake Baldwin: Should I be worried? Or am I just unlucky?

Jay Jaffe: with a 92.7 mph average exit velo, I think there’s a fair bit of bad luck there, but I’d be surprised if you were up for good even if the Braves had started 5-0 instead of 0-5

eline: hi! thank you so much for doing this! I hope all is well. do you have any thoughts on matthew liberatore? so strange to have such a good curveball and a not-so-good fastball

Jay Jaffe: I don’t have much in the way of specific thoughts except that it has been very weird to see the Cardinals’ player development machine sputter so much. Time was that a guy with Liberatore’s pedigree would have already drawn complaints about Cardinals Devil Magic as he pitched them to a playoff series win despite mediocre regular season numbers.

Galen: How bad is the Twins offense…striking out 9 times against Martin Perez. Getting no-hit for 6 IP by Perez. Doesn’t really inspire confidence against real MLB pitchers.

Jay Jaffe: It really does look grim, as if they’re still stuck in last year’s season-ending skid. W/R/T the Pérez start, they’re without Royce Lewis (again), didn’t start either Wallner nor Larnach against the lefty, and pulled Correa and Buxton after three innings when they were down 9-0 in 39-degree weather, which is just a perfect storm of misery.

CE-0711: A couple of teams folks expected to be competitive – the Brewers and Braves – are off to really really rough starts. What’s your thinking on the likelihood of full on collapse for those teams?

Jay Jaffe: I’m suddenly concerned about both teams, especially after Profar got popped for PEDs. His rebound from a miserable 2023 was a fun feel-good story, but obviously it looks much less legitimate now. And for all that he said in his statement, he was pinched for the same masking agent (HCG) that got Manny Ramirez rung up (another guy who was an obvious HOFer until the late-career PED scandal)

Jay Jaffe: So with Bryan De La Cruz and Jarred Kelenic as their main corner outfielders, things are pretty dire for the Braves offense unless everybody else pulls their weight and then some.

Jay Jaffe: The Brewers always seem to surpass expectations but watching Nestor Cortes get lit up by his old team the other day, they’ve got some work to do with that rotation. I still think they’ll be competitive in the NL Central, where the bar is lower

Guest: Dale Murphy and Andruw Jones come to mind a bit. Clearly on HOF trajectories at one point, but weak ends to their careers didn’t seem to help. Damn Atlanta outfields!

Jay Jaffe: Yes, well, Jones is doing far better than Murphy ever did in the voting thanks to defensive metrics; he’s on track for eventual election where Murph can’t even get traction on an Era Committee convened with an apparent eye towards PED shaming.

Bats: Any thoughts on whether we are in for a major lift for offense with the new bats?  Will they be widely used within a month?   Which pitchers will get blasted?   Maybe the ones that give up fly balls? Thanks

Jay Jaffe: Too early to tell but I’m sure we’ll see some experimentation, and if enough players are successful with them, it could very well produce a bit of an uptick

Cal Ripken: Rank these young SSs for HOF chances: Witt, Gunnar, EDC

Jay Jaffe: At the moment I’d go Gunnar, Witt, Elly. Gunnar has 1.5 more WAR than Witt and is a full year younger. Elly is much rawer — there’s HOF talent there but he’s gonna need more polish

Steve O: If Jazz puts up 4-5 wins the next couple of years, do you think some team might give him 150M in FA?

Jay Jaffe: If he performs at that level, and on that stage (with the Yankees), he’s gonna get paid. The Willy Adames deal might be a bit on the high side, especially as he’s a 2B not a SS, but Jazz will get nine figures if he continues to play as well as he’s done since the start of last season

Gonzo: Why have we been seeing a lot of career infielders moving to the outfield? Merrill, Cruz, Altuve, Baez. Is it an actual trend, or just a coincidence?

Jay Jaffe: Maybe more coincidence than trend to have so many notables doing so at once, but the defensive spectrum hasn’t changed all that much over the years. CF is a bit easier than SS and open to those who run well. I am particularly curious to see how the Altuve transition goes given his HOF trajectory; on the other hand, I think the Baez move is just desperation in the midst of a bad contract and an injury stack in CF.

Jackson: Do you think the Phillies should have done more to plug their outfield hole (with a solid righty bat)?

Jay Jaffe: Dear God yes. Nick Castellanos is in the Replacement Level Killer Hall of Fame at this point. His knack for coming up big 5 times a year is offset by what he does the rest of the time.

Reds Enjoyer: Is the sample size too small for takeaways about pitch velocity? I think I’m in the “collapse looks very possible” camp for the Brewers because of how uninspiring the primary-pitch velocities looked for several of their guys this weekend.

Jay Jaffe: I’d wait before jumping to conclusions. Cold weather and spring workload ramp-ups tend to depress pitch velocities early in the season.

Guest: Crochet contract a little heavy?

wheelhouse: leanhardt was apparently received divisively in yankees clubhouse which is why he’s with the marlins now. are we going to be looking back at this 4 months from now when the entire league has the same tennis elbows stanton has right now and wondering how we could be so blind

Jay Jaffe: Anybody who’s telling ballplayers something different than they’re use to hearing – especially an MIT physicist  — is going to be considered “divisive” in a clubhouse where a good portion of players don’t have more than a high school diploma.

That said, I do wonder about the link between Stanton’s bat and his elbow problems and think that the situation deserves closer study. As with some orthopedic surgeons’ concerns about the impact of the sweeper (see Lindsey Adler’s new article in the New Yorker https://www.newyorker.com/sports/sporting-scene/baseball-reaches-its-b…), innovation within baseball can be offset by the rush to ignore the physical costs.

Bubbles: If healthy for the full year, does Nootbaar get down ballot MVP votes? Bat speed is up and lifting the ball more. Very vayto begin with, but I’m calling a full breakout with 6+ WAR season.

Jay Jaffe: I like Lars — who doesn’t? — but I don’t 6-WAR-breakout like him just yet

Career fizzle: How about Jose Rijo?  He seemed to be on a HOF trajectory until he practically disappeared at age 30.

Jay Jaffe: There are 30 billion pitchers who looked like they were on Hall trajectories in their 20s but got injured.

Jay Jaffe: Rijo had one All-Star appearance and had finished no higher than 4th in the Cy Young voting before getting injured at 30. Tim Lincecum had two Cy Youngs and All-Star appearances through his age-25 season.

A stat I saw: Aaron Judge last 127 games (basically since your article last year, of course)

56 home runs
137 RBI
.362/ .496/ .816 (1.314 OPS)
256 wRC+.

Jay Jaffe: Thank you for that! Always good to be reminded of how I turned his season around.

Extension enigma: Why did Garrett Crochet(6 years $170M) get such a massive extension compared to Cole Ragans(3 years, $13.25M)?  It’s not even close!

Jay Jaffe: Service time probably has a lot to do with it. Crochet has 4 years under his belt and the Red Sox needed to figure out after unloading a bunch of prospects for him whether he was going to stick around. Ragans has 2 years of service time and the Royals don’t have a decision point that’s as close at hand, plus they aren’t a team that I believe will throw nine figures at a pitcher anytime soon.

Slew (Seattle): AL central a 4 team tossup, or do you have a favorite?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve been kind of feeling this could be Detroit’s year, but I’d feel more strongly if they’d done something substantial for the left side of that infield and didn’t have so many injuries in the outfield

Spencer Torkelson: What does your gut say…have I finally turned the corner? Or small sample size fluke?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve already been wrong about Tork — who grew up next door to my oldest cousin in Petaluma, CA — more times than I’d care to admit.

Jay Jaffe: So let’s just say that I hope he’s turned the corner but until he’s slugging .600 at the All-Star break I’m not buying it.

Jeff in Jersey: Tough stretch for the Braves. I’m surprised to see that Lopez’s injury & the loss of Profar for 80 games hasn’t impacted their playoff odds more.

Jay Jaffe: Well, right now the assumption is still that both Strider and Acuña will slot seamlessly onto the roster and perform as they usually do (ignoring the variance in the latter’s career, which is more than many people care to admit). Those are award winner-caliber additions if they’re working right, and that can help offset much of what they’ve lost. But if they don’t hit the ground running… it’s another story

Jay Jaffe: As I often say, especially at this time of year, it’s not the first wave of injuries that kills a team’s chances — it’s when the second wave hits before the first wave has settled where you get the real problems. minor leaguers and scrapheap guys pressed into major league duty for too long, things of that nature

Guest: How soon do the sox think about getting Mayer in the major league lineup at SS and/or Anthony MLB looks in the outfield?

Jay Jaffe: Right now they’ve got such a logjam in the middle infield and the outfield that there’s no reason to rush either of those guys. If injuries don’t accelerate their timelines, I suspect they’ll get looks after the All-Star break with an eye towards whether they can help in the postseason, if the Sox are on track.

Guest: Can Baty actually stick with the Metsies if he can hit?  He doesn’t look terrible at 2B.

Jay Jaffe: If he can hit, the Mets will find room for him. But… he hasn’t hit yet.

12 to 6: mookie spent two weeks barfing and pooping himself down 15-20 lbs, then comes out and clobbers two homers (including a game winner) with a giant smile on his face. no question, i’ll cede the rest of my time – baseball is f*****g awesome.

Jay Jaffe: Imagine trading Mookie Betts! You can’t, it’s just a dumb idea. Oh, wait…

Mike Lommler: Apart from the White Sox starters streak on no earned runs, do you have a favorite SSS stat of the season thus far?

Jay Jaffe: Willyer Abreu’s .636/.750/1.364 line after hitting .050 this spring comes to mind. Devers (in the negative sense, but still whoa). The A’s Max Muncy outhomering the Dodgers’ Max Muncy

Dylan: It’s early, but O’Neil Cruz has shown a marked improvement in terms of base stealing and plate discipline. Does this seem like its sustainable (not to the point of a .400 OBP or 100 SB), or do you think he ends up around where he was last year?

Jay Jaffe: I’m cautiously optimistic that he’ll take a step forward. Hit .277/.357/.464 (125 wRC+) with a 27% K rate after the break last year, and seems to have gotten off to a decent start in CF.

Sneaky Pirates: Alexander Canario is a great fit for the Pirates.  Do you think they give him a shot at the major league level shortly?  He has major impact upside it seems based on his spring performance.

Jay Jaffe: I hope so. I mean it’s not like Tommy Pham is going to get them anywhere.

Possible?: The Yankees end up with a better offense despite losing Soto? Obviously three games (really two) don’t mean much, but it would be funny.

Jay Jaffe: Losing Soto was the big headliner but Goldschmidt is an upgrade at 1B, Chisholm over a full season could be an upgrade on Gleyber, Dominguez should be an upgrade over Verdugo, Volpe is young enough that we should expect progress over 2024. Bellinger is obviously no Soto — with Judge sliding from CF to RF, that’s the swap-out — but he’s in a good ballpark for his skills. Really, 3B stands out as their most likely weakness, where we could easily spot a few of them last year.

Jay Jaffe: OK folks, that’s enough out of me. I spilled salad dressing all over these jeans and toughed it out for another 90 minutes but it’s time for something besides Oil-and-Vinegar flavored Jay. Thanks for stopping by!