Back at the turn of the year, Finn Russell was a shoo-in to start at fly-half for the British and Irish Lions on their tour of Australia this summer.
Playing some of the best rugby of his career, the 32-year-old was the form 10 in world rugby for a Bath side who have since become the runaway leaders in the Premiership.
With a new-found maturity to his game, on top of his inimitable box of tricks, Russell was to be the Wizard of Oz for the Lions Down Under.
A few months further down the line, however, few would be willing to bet the house on the 32-year-old Scot starting that first Test against the Wallabies in Brisbane on July 19.
Sure, when head coach Andy Farrell names his Lions squad on Thursday, there’s no doubt that Russell will be on the plane. Of that there’s no question.
But beyond that? Well, all bets are off. By his own high standards, Russell had a fairly average Six Nations this year.
Russell lets off a pass under pressure during Bath’s clash with Exeter last month
The Scotland talisman puts pressure on Sexton during a Six Nations clash in 2019
Russell didn’t enjoy his finest Six Nations campaign and was critical of his own performances
He was highly critical of his own performance in the win over Italy in the opening match and, from there, he never really found his stride.
But it was the appointment of Johnny Sexton to the Lions backroom team a couple of weeks ago that really felt like a spanner in the works in terms of Russell’s chances.
Despite only being involved with Ireland for a handful of matches since retiring as a player, Sexton has been fast-tracked to an assistant coach role under Farrell.
His remit will be to work with the fly-halves and help with the attack, working alongside attack coach Andrew Goodman.
Bluntly, that’s not good news for Russell. It’s hardly a state secret that Sexton has a fairly dim view of the Scotland superstar.
In an interview published last autumn, Sexton called Russell ‘flashy’ and a ‘media darling’.
He described England’s Marcus Smith in similar terms, before backtracking somewhat and declaring the England man to be a ‘generational talent’.
Russell has been a key man for Bath in both their domestic and European campaigns this year
There was to be no revising his opinion on Russell. Sexton even went as far to say he would pick Owen Farrell — the forgotten man of Test rugby — for the Lions.
‘Who do you want in there when the going gets tough? Test-match animals,’ said Sexton, the most decorated fly-half of his generation.
‘I know who the media would want. Finn Russell, Marcus Smith, the flashy. But I would pick Owen Farrell.’
Sexton’s views on Russell have been no secret. There had been a few jibes from the Irishman over the years, but none as pointed as that.
As players, they were chalk and cheese; Sexton one of the great controllers with his analytical mind, Russell the free spirit who plays on instinct.
Fine a player though he was, Sexton’s spell at Racing 92 between 2013 and 2015 was a disaster.
The French fans didn’t buy into him at all, whereas they loved Russell during his stay in Paris between 2018 and 2023.
Russell wore the famous red Lions jersey during the 2021 tour to South Africa
Sexton can’t backtrack on those Russell comments now. They are a matter of public record.
With Lions squad selection now only a few days away, Russell’s homecoming this afternoon offers an intriguing sub-plot.
Bath will be red-hot favourites against Edinburgh when the teams collide in the semi-finals of the European Challenge Cup at the Hive.
After an unimpressive Six Nations, and now with the added complication of Sexton being in the mix as a Lions coach, Russell needs to finish the season strongly.
He may only have a handful of big games left before the tour. A Challenge Cup semi-final and final, as well as the Premiership semi-finals and final.
That’s assuming, of course, that Bath reach both showpieces. With Russell in top form for his club, as he has been for much of the season, they should do exactly that.
But this is his time to shine. If he can finish the season by leading Bath to a Premiership and Challenge Cup double, he would make himself undroppable.
A youthful Russell keeps a close eye on Sexton at Murrayfield back in 2015
Speaking earlier this week, Edinburgh and Scotland lock Grant Gilchrist promised to make life as uncomfortable as possible for Russell.
‘We’ve got so much respect for Finn and for Bath as a team, but they’ve got a proposition on their hands if they think they’re coming up here just to have a walk in the park,’ said the 34-year-old.
‘We’re not coming here on Saturday just to hope it’s cagey and hope they have an off day.
‘They’re coming to our home and we’ve got to go and put our game on them.
‘If it’s not good enough then we can look ourselves in the mirror and say we were beaten by a better team. But our mindset has got to be that we’re going after them.’
That’s easier said that done. Bath have been outstanding this season. In 16 matches across three different competitions, they’ve hit the 40-point mark.
They put more than 50 on Newcastle Falcons and Gloucester – and more than 60 on Gloucester and Saracens. They aren’t just beating teams, they are demolishing them.
For an Edinburgh team who continue to be inconsistent under head coach Sean Everitt, this is as tough a challenge as they could have had.
The idea of playing the game at Murrayfield was floated, but Edinburgh players swiftly knocked that on the head. They want the tighter confines of the smaller Hive. The crowd will be packed. Russell won’t be in his familiar playground of the national stadium.
Edinburgh’s Grant Gilchrist celebrates his side’s Challenge Cup quarter-final win over the Bulls
Edinburgh coach Sean Everitt has urged the capital men to seize the opportunity of a lifetime
But it’s still a hell of a tall order, with Everitt saying: ‘It’s a massive task for us. Bath are the form team in the Prem by some way.
‘They’ve put to bed a lot of good teams in the Premiership. If you look at the game against Newcastle, they get stronger as the game goes on – they were able to score quite a few tries in the last 20 minutes.
‘So, yes, it is a big task for us. At the same time we’ve got experienced players within our group, and international players, too, so we’re not daunted by the task ahead of us.
‘It’s just going to be a great challenge to measure ourselves with the best in England.
‘This is definitely one of the biggest [games I’ve faced]. I’ve been involved in semi-finals in Super Rugby and obviously Currie Cup finals, but this is definitely up there with the biggest.
‘To be in a European final, regardless of whether it’s the Champions Cup or Challenge Cup, is massive for any franchise.
‘Once again, we’ve got an opportunity to win, and that’s why we’re in this business as professional sportsmen and coaches.’
Good luck to Edinburgh, but Finn is back in town. Whatever happens this afternoon, it won’t be dull. More than anything, he needs to remove any doubt that he is the right man to wear that famous red jersey in the summer.
