Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 12/13/24

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from sunny Tempe. I returned from Dallas yesterday evening, had a great time with the whole FG crew and other baseball pals, redeemed the city after ASB.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m gonna preempt a lot of questions by posting a few links to get started…

Eric A Longenhagen: Lots of folks asking about the Crochet return. My thoughts went live a few minutes ago. Kyle Teel Headlines Solid Return Package for White Sox in Garrett Crochet Trade | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: In short: Much better than any of the deals they made last year.

Eric A Longenhagen: I also wrote up the Guardians return for Spencer Horwitz…

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay let’s chat.

Jon G: Cubs apparently are down to move Cam Smith in a Kyle Tucker deal. Any guess of how much that’ll hurt to look at this time next year when Tucker’s on the free agent market?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Cam but I think Tucker is an MVP candidate and I’d be tempted to make that trade. The blow would be softened by the presence of Matt Shaw, who I think is a more natural fit at 3B than either MIF spot and probably the long term answer there…

Eric A Longenhagen: But I’d also wanna feel a little more confident that my roster was actually a contending roster before I made a knowingly short sighted move like that.

Jim: Do any of the A’s young pitchers project as more than back of the rotation starters? Thinking Estes, Ginn, Spence, Boyle, Basso, Harris, Waldichuk, Medina, Hoglund, Barnett, Perkins, and Morales.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Ginn’s sinker will allow him to eat innings such that he’s not just a vanilla 5. Barnett same thing, his stuff is pretty good and he’s proven that he can handle the workload and sustain it….

Eric A Longenhagen: Morales has massive upside, is still raw. Lots of variance there, but he has the most upside of that group by a lot.

Eric A Longenhagen: Waldy and Medina I liked as a no. 4 SP and late-inning RP, respectively.

Eric A Longenhagen: Obvs Waldy was bad and then got hurt.

Dallas: Should Konnor Griffin be more highly regarded considering his tools and ability to play premium positions? To me, idk if any other prospect has more upside than him.

Eric A Longenhagen: His right tail outcomes are huge, yes. The way I grade players takes bust risk and dev time into account and both are relevant in Griffin’s case

Space Case: Have you made eyes on Jesus Made yet, Eric? What do you think or do I need to wait? Happy Hollidays Sir. What would you like for Christmas?

Eric A Longenhagen: If you’re speaking from a dynasty league standpoint, if it’s very hard to access franchise type players then go for it. I’ve seen a few games on tape, he looks the part and his trackman data was ridiculous. He’s definitely a top 100 guy, I’ll need more before I stuff him in he top 25 or something like that

Eric A Longenhagen: For christmas, hmmm….

Eric A Longenhagen: IDK maybe it’s time for a new guitar?

MrMet: How does your analysis/valuation of high-contact, questionable-power prospects like McGonigle or Brito versus light-power-power, high-k guys contrast with how MLB teams might value those prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: It honestly depends on the team, and also varies person to person within that team’s scouting or analyst group. I tend to like the high contact guys even when they lack overt physical projection, but I tend not to project on those sorts the way others might looking solely at their age.

Sodo Mojo: As a Mariners fan I just became a lot more interested in the top of this years draft.  I know its early but how does the talent at the  top of this years draft compare to the last three?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there are a couple of guys who have an argument to be top 100 prospects immediately, like two or three at this stage. By draft time that number is more like 6. It’s possible a true top-of-the-class slam dunk will emerge by then but I don’t think there is one now…

Eric A Longenhagen: I love Tyler Bremner from UC Santa Barbara and think he’s as close to a top 3-to-5 lock as the draft has right now. Here are my notes on him right now: Loose, flexible, and lean right-hander who sits mid 90s with his FB and was routinley in the upper-90s during shorter bursts with Team USA during the summer of ’24. Posted a .88 WHIP as a soph at UCSB. Has a shot to develop three plus pitches. Fastball averaged 95 mph during the regular season with plus rise/run movement. Also features a two-plane, bat-missing slider with tight, hard spin and uncommon velocity (85-88 mph) for a pitch with above-average length. Bremner’s best pitch might be a changeup that will flash big depth and late fading action. There are stretches where his arm slot drops when throwing the cambio but you can go crazy projecting on that pitch because of his fluidity and arm speed. One of the top pitching prospects in the 2025 draft and a potential top 5 pick..

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Corona SS Billy Carlson is he best high school prospect and could be a 1.1 candidate if he shows up sronger in the spring. Plus defender, 7 arm, performed from a bat-to-ball standpoint against HS showcase guys.

Eric A Longenhagen: Aiva Arquette is the other player who checks basically all the boxes from a defenseive fit/offensive performance standpoint, and he has the overt physical projection you look for in a high-ceiling guy. He could blow up and go 1.

Eric A Longenhagen: So those are my three top guys right now.

wheelhouse: This is obviously so much easier said than done, and could be said of a thousand prospects who never became anything, but: what does a version of Spencer Jones who improves his swing decisions enough to run a K% down around 30 at the major league level look like? I don’t think he’ll ever get the whiff per swing rate to average, but that doesn’t really determine the damage a guy does on contact

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe a shade better than Oneil Cruz’s 2024 line? Spenny’s power is more actualized on contact via better launch.

Eric A Longenhagen: There aren’t many minor leaguers who’ve managed 57% hard hit rates. Matt Wallner maybe in there, too.

AL Central Casting: Do the Twins have enough SP depth in the upper minors (including guys like SWR, Festa, and Matthews) to feel comfortable if they trade Chris Paddack?

Tacoby Bellsbury: Was there anything in the minor-league Rule V draft worth noticing?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lotta teams taking guys who they think can actually play C/SS just an an org depth upgrade at those spots….

Eric A Longenhagen: Lots of pitching reclamation projects. DeVito, Franco, Floyd, Peek, guys who’ve been hurt or whose career took a weird turn.

Eric A Longenhagen: Hajjar is that, too

Eric A Longenhagen: The top pick, Joseph Yabbour, was sitting 96-98 at the end of the year at St. Lucie’s closer. Really wild guy, but has upside if the White Sox can polish him up

Phil: As a Red Sox fan, I have complicated feelings about this trade. I understand that Teel was the least heralded of the Heralded Four, and of course I’m delighted to still have Anthony. But there are so few catchers around, somehow, and the Sox are already playing one who I think may be secretly a second basemen. Is Teel maybe further away than I thought? Is Narvaez somebody?

Eric A Longenhagen: I will be working on writing up the Carlos Narvaez/Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz deal once we get off here. I said out loud in the media workroom after the Crochet deal broke that the Yankees were the team with a catching surplus for Boston to siphon from but I didn’t think they’d actually consummate something..

Eric A Longenhagen: I currently have Narvaez eval’d as a power-over-hit third catcher. Will obviously take a fresh pass at him when I write the piece.

Refugee: Appreciate your insight on Over-Slot recently. Do you consider Ethan Holliday’s swing flaw being identified this early something that works for (he’s not even 18 yet) or against him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not sure it’s correctable, I think his hands just work in a way that leaves him very vulnerable to many fastballs up/away. I have him more middle of the first round. 72% contact guy on the showcase circuit, hit .240 and slugged .380 when you add up his entire multi-year showcase sample. Love the raw power potential, don’t think the performance merits a top 5 pick. But the Colorado/Holliday connection and Washington’s willingness to take guys like Elijah Green looms.

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Of Baltimore’s three 50 FV starters (Povich/McDermott/Young), which one are you most in on? Side note: McDermott’s fastball visually looks the most impressive of his pitches but stuff models don’t care for it (?)

Eric A Longenhagen: I think I’d have Young first (lock SP), then McDermott (agree with you about the FB), and then Povich who I’m worried has less precise command than he needs to thrive with pretty vanilla stuff.

Hyperart Thomasson: What are your thoughts on projecting further power production for Spencer Horwitz? Is bat speed the only glaring deficiency in his profile, and what’s your sense of players and dev groups ability or track record of improving bat speed w/o compromising contact rate and quality?

Eric A Longenhagen: That guy has definitely made himself stronger than I would have guessed and he looks absolutely ripped, but yeah the bat speed is the bat speed. Because minor league bat speed isn’t an objective thing I have access to any identification of changes like you describe is dicey, right? But yeah sometimes guys like Kristian Campbell just start swinging way, way harder and there’s always some amount of give to their hit tool. If the foundation was good enough that they K more but still at a workable rate, then cool.

Eric A Longenhagen: If there’s variability in projecting Horwitz it’s probably coming more from whether an org think he can play 2B or not. Less to do with his offense.

Guest: Thoughts on Travis Hunter being listed as ATH as his position & whether or not he’ll get drafted by the As ?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lol, I don’t know whether he’s going to be able to play both ways in the NFL. I want to hear the Dane Bruglers and Connor Rogers of the world on that topic. I do think Mykell Williams is a dark horse 1.1 candidate though, I’d take him over Abdul Carter as my top edge guy.

Kate: Not a prospect anymore, but what do you think of Max Meyer at this point?  Feel like he needs to incorporate the changeup and sinker more.  The fourseam doesn’t seem strong enough to be more of a two-pitch guy.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m with you, it would have been foolish to think that he’d sustain the arm strength he showed pre-pandemic (up to 102 here in AZ) for a whole season but to lose like seven ticks is pretty wild.

Lord Thunder: How far away are the Nationals’ duo of 6’6” 20-year-old pitchers, Travis Sykora and Jarlin Susana, from reaching the Dollander-Chandler-Sproat tier on The Board?

Eric A Longenhagen: How ever far away from the 40-man they are, basically. Both could be back-of-the-100 types this cycle, strikes were there for both this year, Susana crested 100 innings i think. Proving it with 120+ innings and being on the cusp of the majors is basically a mandatory thing for me to put a pitching prospect in the top 30

doughboy: Leaving most likely candidates of it (Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Padres) Which mid-market team would you say has the best resources and infrastructure to legitimately have a shot at Roki Sasaki?

Eric A Longenhagen: Baltimore came to mind first. Something about Sasaki’s purported grave seriousness fits with Adley and that group. That org has done well with pitching….

Eric A Longenhagen: Hmmm, who else?

Eric A Longenhagen: I selfishly want him to be a D’Back, Carroll would get to take a step back from the spotlight in a way that might be good for him. No Walker in the clubhouse, though.

Eric A Longenhagen: The Rays or Las Vegas Athletics of Sacramento would be a fun fit, I wanna see a minor league park handle that media deluge.

Eric A Longenhagen: Obviously Cleveland, Seattle, Atlanta, places that have shown they can make pitchers good, would all seem like great fits (though obviously SEA’s need is not currently pitching)

Eric A Longenhagen: Milwaukee on that list too

Eric A Longenhagen: Non-zero shot to be the set-up guy, has to be more consistent. That kid was at an AFL game like three days after they won the ship, just wanted to be around baseball.

Lord Thunder: After a pretty disappointing debut in the majors last year, is Bryan Ramos still the White Sox’ 3Bman of the future?

Eric A Longenhagen: The lack of bat speed scares me but I’m still on his defense in a big, big way.

Sam: Do you think Teel will be the best prospect traded this winter?

Mordecai and Rigby: There was so much talk of the “Golden AB” a few weeks back (I hate the idea myself), but what are your thoughts on it? I personally want ABS in place and think MLB will be better and look very different once this is implemented.

Eric A Longenhagen: Hate it, feels to far flung from a core aspect of baseball which is “take your turn”. I’m pro Challenge System (it’s going to be a big, big deal and everyone will love it, it’s going to be super fun to be in the stadium when the crowd roasts a visiting player for being wrong) but not full ABS.

Eric A Longenhagen: The change they’re looking for it that. It adds nuance to the game. Full ABS takes nuance away.

McBain: Does Colorado not making a Rule 5 pick border on malfeasance?

Eric A Longenhagen: Eh, I just peeked at their full 40-man and I suppose one of the relievers at the bottom of the roster could have jettisoned to make room for someone with more upside. I like Herget, Bird, etc. but adding Bastardo who you can 60-day right away maybe would have been a good move.

Mordecai and Rigby: Ethan Holliday was not great during the summer circuit just like his big bro, but what are the key differences in their swings? The physical builds and actions are obviously very different, but how do their bat paths compare?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jackson was really good.

Eric A Longenhagen: The power arrived the following day spring but the contact was always there

Eric A Longenhagen: Ooop, thank you for this. I’ve gotta run and get notes to Ben on Caleb Durbin, as he’s writing up the trade. Lemme take a few rapid fire questions really quickly…

Benjamin: How much do you evaluate the malleability of skills? For example, how much do you lean on prior ability to improve say, zone contact, even contextualizing within an organization? Do you feel strongly about some skills being more innate than others, outside of things like he is 6’7 with broad shoulders type insights?

Eric A Longenhagen: Great question. I tend to think contact is less malleable and that there are certain guys who simply cannot ID offspeed stuff no matter how much they see it. I don’t think the latter is universal. I think some purely physical tools can be improved through better mechanical efficiency and some teams (be it via use of tech or just scout/coach/dev personnels’ eye for this sort of thing)  are better at identifying, “hey, that player could be better if he moved like this or was positioned like that”

Mordecai and Rigby: Do you ever wonder how Kyler Murray would be doing if he committed to the A’s in alternate universe?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, often.

RyanW: Which of these guys turns into a superstar? K. Campbell, Leo Devries, Jesus Made, Sebastian Walcott

Eric A Longenhagen: Walcott

Guest: Any info on the Caleb Durbin. Prospect included in the Devin Williams trade

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, the entire chat is just Caleb Durbin questions which I think is a sign that I should depart. TBD on chat next week because I’m traveling to Philly for a wedding and the holidays. Until then…