Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 11/15

Eric A Longenhagen: Happy Friday morning, you hosers! It’s Fall League semi-final day so I’ll be (I think boldly/stupidly) riding my bike to Scottsdale Stadium this afternoon and mourning the end of our domestic baseball-watching calendar…

Eric A Longenhagen: This week I posted an update to the Foreign Pro Prospect list, and the Angels list…

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks to Sean Dolinar for implementing this during the week

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, vamanos a su preguntas

Phil: Updated thoughts on Denzel Clarke after his recent season and any looks at the AFL?

Eric A Longenhagen: He has made some of the most ridiculous and incredible plays at the wall that I’ve ever seen. I think it will take a while for him to hit (if it happens at all) but in the meantime he absolutely has a role on a team as a plus defensive center fielder.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s just such a remarkable athlete and runner, truly special watching him go first to third or home

Eric A Longenhagen: he leapt so high trying to rob a homer this week that his thighs were at the top of the wall and he toppled over it. In CF, not the dugout railing

bk: How do you as a prospect evaluator handle seasons like Nimmala’s, where half was awful, and the other half was great?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d look to see if there is visual evidence of an adjustment in the second half. Because Arj played in the FSL there’s scrapeable data that might show him improving in chase/whiff against breaking stuff later in the year

Eric A Longenhagen: that’s how I’d approach him, specifically, knowing issues with spin were present as an amateur (I had him late first round)

Eamus Catuli: Which Cubs prospect do you see having the highest ceiling? Do they have superstar potential somewhere on the farm?

Eric A Longenhagen: I know it’s not sexy and new to say this because he’s been around forever, but isn’t it Kevin Alcantara? A 6-foot-6 22 year old CF with power and speed? It’s him. Cam Smith is probably next, Angel Cepeda might be the sneaky sleeper name you’re looking for.

Broken Pitchers: Has Alex Santos turned a corner?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a 40 RP for me (which is good). Mid-90s, cutter, curveball, everything a little better than average for me but nothing consistently plus. Don’t think he’s a late-inning guy or mid-rotation starter, though.

MetsHead: Drew Gilbert seems to have found his power stroke but lost contact.  Is this all rust, or a shift in skill set?

Eric A Longenhagen: His head has been flying all over the place when he swings, it was true when I saw him with Syracuse around Labor Day (though I think he was freshly off injury then?) and has remained so. Definitely looks more like a 45 than a true everyday guy

Say Whaaaaaa: Did Chase Meidroth do enough this year at AAA to move up to the 45+ tier? Can he be something like a MI utility version of Schanuel?

Eric A Longenhagen: He just doesn’t have the kind of physical tools I’m looking for when we’re talking about a grade that high. What grade would you put on Schanuel?

Eric A Longenhagen:

TJ: Steamer has Ben Rice at a 115 wRC+ for 25. He had a 16% barrel last year. You really think he’s a fringe 40 man guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do, I love his ability to snatch those high fastballs, and no doubt big physical guys with lefty power like him are the sorts who break late and have a relevant window…

Eric A Longenhagen: But Rice hit like .180 against non-fastballs last year. There’s a way to get him out and I think big league clubs tend to figure that out and exploit it. The projection models loved Davis Schneider, too.

Busts: Ultimate small sample size, but based on their pro debut which 2024 first rounder do you think is mostly likely to fail in 2025

Eric A Longenhagen: Condon’s was pretty concerning

Kave Dingman: Years ago, I worked with a guy whose son was a 25th rounder and pitched in the minors and in Indy ball. He basically said that if you were a top pick, you would have to “work on” specific things. Like improving your curveball would mean EVERY batter gets a 1st pitch curve. Which doesn’t take long for the other team to figure out. The result is that top prospects results will suffer, meanwhile the pitcher is progressing.

How much of this is still true and how much does it impact the statistics of the top prospects/

Eric A Longenhagen: I agree that there are instances where this happens but it’s rarely for so long that it has a huge impact on anyone’s statistical performance across a big enough sample. For me, for scouts, or even for analysts I think being sensitive to the possibility that stuff like this might be going on is important…

Eric A Longenhagen: For instance, Griff McGarry used to have a great changeup. He hasn’t thrown his changeup for me in the AFL. When I do the Phillies list, I have to dive into that either in his regular season data and film, or by asking someone with Philly why this is the case.

Mlong: Are you going to rank Roki this year?  What about Sugano? I forget where you draw the lines on rank vs don’t rank?

Eric A Longenhagen: The way we’ve settled on it (Meg and I liked JJ Cooper’s logic) is that the guys who are subject to Int’l Bonus Pools get ranked, the guys who’ve played enough to be posted free agents do not.

Eric A Longenhagen: We used to use whether or not the p[layer was Rookie of the Year eligible, which applied to Yamamoto, Imanaga, etc., because my logic was, “give people all the info you can, don’t take stuff away”, but when Yoshida said he felt disrespected by being on ROY ballots at his age/experience I became open to change

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the BBWAA should agree to cut off ROY voting with the same definition. Having Yamamoto, etc. be ROY eligible impacts how teams view Prospect Promotion Incentives

Sodo Mojo: When you have a team like the Mariners who have to very batter friendly A ball home parks what are you looking at from a stats perspective when you are trying to judge their hitters at that level.

Eric A Longenhagen: Park-independent stuff like contact rates and hard hit rates. Basically the same stuff as I’d look for from anyone else. The home park factors just influence how much I care about triple slash lines and such

Vslyke: Jared Jones slumped as the season went on – is he going to be strong enough to hold up over a full season?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a great question that has been part of his profile for his entire prospectdom, and he’ll either get to prove it or not. He’s a special enough athlete that I am optimistic.

Perfect timing: I was just offered Xavier Isaac in OttoNeu. 80/80/80/80 power.   Any chance of 2025 MLB contributor?  One ink says “excellent bat control”; another K rate is exploding. You say?

Eric A Longenhagen: K’s exploding, not a 2025 contributor, still believe in the power long term

Eric A Longenhagen: He might be dealing with persistent wrist or hand stuff? He’s had a brace on sometimes here

Anaheim gives you Wings: Are there any benefits to the Angels’ “promote as quickly as possible” program?  Seems like the development is lagging, the players make it to FA sooner, and the minors are left with few pieces.  So what are the pluses?

Eric A Longenhagen: There are definitely people in baseball who think the players who are actually good will just perform all the time without any prolonged speed bumps. If that’s true then their approach makes sense.

Eric A Longenhagen: It made some situational sense given the Ohtani/Trout window, but now it feels kind of rushed as if there need to be results from the pipeline in order for people to keep their jobs

Philip: By any chance do you have Salas EV data for AFL (all games not just the ones statcast showing)? thanks

Eric A Longenhagen: I do not, some ballparks are using Trackman and others Hawkeye so it might be split up all over the place no matter who you are

Stromile Swift: Moinelo’s conversion to starting makes him a really interesting FA possibility with his fallback as a potentially elite reliever. Have you heard anything in regards to the potential of him actually coming over? I realize this is a lot more complicated since he has to defect as well

Eric A Longenhagen: I have not. This question and and username are the most Eric bait ever, btw.

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess I really have divulged a lot about myself across 8 years of being here

E: Thoughts on Ballesteros likelihood to stick at catcher to some degree? How much does he move up on the board if he’s a catcher? The bat seems impressive for a young guy in AAA.

Eric A Longenhagen: He can throw well enough to do it and I think that’s key. He definitely lacks the frame/size I want (he’s a husky 5-foot-8) and he’s been running to the backstop a ton here in AFL. It’s more dicey than Liranzo and Agustin Ramirez but I’m still cautiously optimistic

Stromile Swift: And as a follow up to my previous question, how does it work for an NPB prospect that needs to defect with the posting system? Does he defect then gets “posted”? Seems very messy (and maybe they only end up coming over when they reach FA status)

Eric A Longenhagen: In Moinelo’s case he signed a four-year deal in March so it’d be a gigantic mess, and I can’t imagine him actually bailing on it. I think the Robert Suarez’s of the world wait until their NPB deal is up and they’re true FA

Jay: After reading the LAA report, what is the ‘surface’ (90th %tile?) for Natera if he’s able to hone his command?

Eric A Longenhagen: JA Happ?

Eric A Longenhagen: Like super well-built lefty without monster secondaries type guy, just hucking strikes with sink/cut, super durable above avg arm strength type guy

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Do you believe in Austin Overn making adjustments Cape Cod and forward?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s just so narrowly built, the PAC12 tourney look was just okay, more 5th OF look for me than anything else unless he gets stronger. Love football players, of course, but he’s gotta add mass

Buf: How many years would Schanuel have to put up .258/.355/.402 (current projection, 118 wRC+, 2 WAR) before you considered him a 50? I’m guessing it would take over a full season lol. And I think I’d agree!

Eric A Longenhagen: Gotta do it multiple years, like avg 2 WAR for 5 yrs

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Is there any public-facing data that you use to evaluate players at the CPX/DSL level, or is it all visual scouting and non-public strike zone/plate discipline stuff?

Eric A Longenhagen: The latter, if there’s a public-facing thing that folks don’t know about it’s that there are tons of CMPLX/DSL streams on YouTube that you could be watching, and those often have live TrackMan on the stream

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s happening right now. It’s awesome. This is how I spend my mornings.

Jason: Which 2024 draft guys do you like most for dynasty leagues?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d be targeting the power/speed combo guys like anyone else. I’d be more likely to take a PJ Morlando than a Wyatt Sanford because so much of Sanford’s real world ability comes from defense. So Caldwell, Morlando, Lindsey. Pitchers I’d just care about proximity.

Tony Plush: Any thoughts on Cags in the AFL beyond “tired”?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yoked

Eric A Longenhagen: Truly incredible watching him and Peyton Williams stand next to one another with compression shirts on

James: Emmanuel Rodriguez had another injury-plagued year. Did he show you anything this year that moves him in a different way on the boom/bust continuum?

Eric A Longenhagen: The defense gives him a floor, don’t think that guy busts in a true baseball sense

Bort: Does Logan Evans look like a viable big league starter next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have a MIRP grade on him at the moment and I think that SEA/SD/TEX/KC group will be at the end of the list cycle

Refugee: No question, just happy these are back up and running – are you finding you have more time to do these, or did the crowds of Longenheads outside your house convince you?

Eric A Longenhagen: Someone I trust and love told me I was too “walled off” now

Eric A Longenhagen: And the site deserves the traffic these provide

Eric A Longenhagen: Plus my coworkers do them and I felt like a chump for forgetting to chat so often that they just evaporated

Kevin: You mentioned Braden Nett on Effectively Wild as an example of a prospect you would ask for if the Padres wanted extra international pool money to sign Sasaki. Is he a 45/45+ guy now or is that bonus money worth a 35+ guy in your estimation?

Eric A Longenhagen: I just pulled a name from the aether

Ski: In your opinion, are there any tools or skills that are a bit of a blind spot for the scouting industry as a whole? Either because they’re not emphasized appropriately in evaluations or just difficult to evaluate in general.

Eric A Longenhagen: Actual day-to-day makeup is so tough (especially for me), defense can be tough too if you’re not using video to get look after look after look. For analysts, physical projection eludes them and their models (unless they’re using language modeling populated by scouting reports, which some teams do)

Toshi: Thank you for doing this. Is there anyone in the Mariers’ system who can play 3B at the major level in the future?

Eric A Longenhagen: You’re welcome, bud. I think Cole Young could be an okay short term option at basically any infield spot. His lack of power would not be ideal at third but I think he’d be okay. Eventually, Colt Emerson (more juice, not as good a defender), Tai Peete (raw, immense projection), or maybe Felnin Celestin could do it, but that group feels 2 or more years away, at least

Nathan: Why was Chase DeLauter in the AFL if he wasn’t going to play? I read his lack of at bats as evidence that his foot is bugging him again… or am I just being paranoid?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think they want him to get reps without putting him at risk, call it “load management”. I only saw him twice, it was frustrating for me but I get it. We’re definiely at a place with him where the injury persistence alters his “value”

Lord Thunder: Brock Wilken. Still a future power bat for the Brewers or no longer a GUY?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s worked really hard to make himself as lean and athletic as he’s become. Bat speed is still there. He hasn’t been a Top 100 guy for me because of the concerns I’ve had about the hit tool (which have played out) but there’s still so much power there that I’m not ready to write him off

Alec: See anything from Cayden Wallace in the AFL? How’s he tracking since the trade

Eric A Longenhagen: Only played in 3 games, never saw him

Dino Radja: Does Grant Taylor make the top 100 this offseason?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah I think so. Stuff plus projection given his lack of reps. He’ll be toward the very back because of relief risk but I think he’ll be on there

Mariners: Do you keep Harry Ford at catcher at this point?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, that position is so grueling that you’re gonna need bodies back there.

Eric A Longenhagen: Harry can catch part time and play OF part time and be on your team with Dumper.

GA Blood: Did Thomas Saggese display any improvements in plate discipline in the Fall League? I was pretty stunned at his comments about being able to hit everything in the interview Laurila posted with him.

Eric A Longenhagen: He has not. He’s a super tough eval, he and Nick Kurtz have been the two toughest for me to nail down out here.

Eric A Longenhagen: Saggese’s forearms and hands look like they belong to a different person than the rest of his body

Eric A Longenhagen: He can really swing it, but yeah he’s been chase prone out here

wheelhouse: is caleb durbin’s power ceiling as low as the 2024 exit velo numbers would indicate, or is there any reason to believe injuries dragged those down

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s so short levered and on time to pull so often that I bet he out slugs his raw power. Is it enough for him to be a regular 2B/3B? No, but I think he’ll be a nice little utility guy.

PhuchAltuve: Any yankees prospects looking like players in the afl?

Eric A Longenhagen: Carlos LaGrange might be, he’s just still so raw. Garrett Martin has had a nice AFL but he’s more an honorable mention type guy for me.

Bill G: Long term who would you rather have, Chourio or Merrill?  Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Ooof that’s tough. Merrill? Gimme the lefty stick and special feel for the barrel.

Harold: Did Rocker show enough this year to move up from the 40+ tier for you?

Eric A Longenhagen: How high? IDK just yet

Nick: Sort of had a general Top X Prospects list question that I’d love to hear your thought process on.

Say you have a top 100 prospects list.  The way I think I would think about making my rankings is that, if I were a GM of a generic team (no particular needs, surpluses, or windows to compete/not compete in), I would be willing to trade the 54th prospect for the 53rd (even if just barely) but not vice versa.

My general sense, though, is that prospect lists don’t tend to reflect this precisely.

What would you say your guiding principles are for ranking one prospect in front of another?  And in what ways — and, more importantly, why! — do you have it differ from “most valuable in a generic trade”?

Eric A Longenhagen: The thought exercise you’re doing — “would I trade X for Y?” — is definitely a question I ask myself when putting any list together, top 100 or team. When we’re talking about the 50 FV tier (which is big relative to the others on the Top 100), I am prioritizing players with skills/traits that I think give them a higher floor. That’s 1) up the middle defense, 2) contact skill, 3) proximity to MLB. So if you look at any of my top 100 lists you’re gonna see the groupings like that. Jacob Wilson윌슨 will be higher than Owen Caissie, etc.

Eric A Longenhagen: But yeah, once the players are comparable enough that the stuff you mentioned (needs, surpluses, or windows to compete/not compete in) is what dictates your answer to “who would I rather have” you get into this area where heuristics are a guide

RWFTF: How much does a Synergy Sports subscription cost?

Eric A Longenhagen: Half of my pre-covid travel budget

KingRaj4826: What are your thoughts on Nestor German of the Orioles? He had a 1.59 ERA with a 2.17 FIP in 73.2 IP across A & A+ in his pro debut this year.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a real prospect. 93-94, high slot downhill angle, real slider command and depth, slower curveball with in-zone utility…Nothing super nasty but it works

Eric A Longenhagen: backend SP/swingman type

Mlong: Prediction on when the next MLB expansion draft occurs and what the rules would be?

Eric A Longenhagen: No idea but I know I want to be involved

guest: with Endy Rodriguez coming back from injury and his first MLB season a struggle offensively, do you still believe in his upside with his minor league track record?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do, love his swing and feel for the barrel, think it’s important to see where his body is at coming out of rehab because some guys get strong when they have nothing to do but lift, and hat’s the only thing he was missing.

Wyatt: Langford had a good rookie season but fell far short of the hype. Do you think he takes a step forward this year, or will he be overmatched by high heaters again?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m still all in

Colton: Any reason why Kurtz has been so hard to nail down in particular?

Eric A Longenhagen: He checks some very specific boxes (big guy with short levers, vertical bat path) but I think he’s a bad athlete and the bar at 1B is soooo high, and I’m traumatized by Vaughn/Tork….

MattM: How would you compare Seth Hernandez and Dylan Lesko as prospects at their same age (heading into their draft year)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sethy is a better athlete with better physical projection. Lesko’s fastball had better shape and movement.

MDS1080: STL looks like they will fill in holes in their pitching staff for 2025 by tapping their farm system.  Any other teams likely to focus on internal promotion over FA acquisition?

Eric A Longenhagen: TB, COL, OAK, CHC

Eric A Longenhagen: Feel like there are a lot of near-ready hitters in those spots, kinda think all four clubs could sneak up on us next year

Eric A Longenhagen: Especially Oakland. Lawrence Butler is gonna have 40 bombs next year.

ML: This is probably more of a pro scouting question but I’d love to hear your opinion on why Tork has struggled so much to meet expectations.

Eric A Longenhagen: Tight lower body, can’t dip and scoop softer stuff.

Guest: Did anything about Jordan Westberg’s performance last year surprise you? As an Orioles fan, watching him play alot I think he’s better than advertised…

Eric A Longenhagen: I 45’d him thinking he’d get worked up around his hands, he’s a Dude.

Mark: The Giants yo-yo-ing of Marco Luciano makes me wonder about their confidence in him. Do you think he’s a major league regular for them?

Dipoto: Think Colt Emerson becomes a top 5 prospect this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everyone, I’m gonna get working on the A’s prospect list now. Look for me on TV tonight and tomorrow, I’m the handsome one. Thanks for coming to the site this week, please consider a sub if you don’t already have one.