If England were an item on a cake counter they would be a Battenberg – tasty-looking initially but ultimately disappointing.
During an autumn when optimism has given way to frustration on a weekly basis, their home-straight slip-ups have rendered them the Devon Lochs of Test rugby.
You can pick your poison as to why it has gone wrong late on in each game – poor substitutions, a lack of depth on the bench, not picking France-based players, mental hang-ups, fitness issues – but whatever the cause England have been left in a gloomy space.
Three successive home defeats and five on the bounce in all are miserable statistics. The only consolation for England supporters is that at least they’re not Welsh.
If results are the currency by which a side is judged – and they are – England are at their lowest ebb for six years. The thing is though, England do not look like a side in freefall.
They have lost to three top teams – it turns out Australia aren’t nearly as bad as advertised – by a click of the fingers. The average margin of defeat over this exasperating period has been 4.8 points. They are not that far off being a winning side.
Had this autumn’s schedule been assembled in a different order with Japan first up, there is every chance England would have won the majority of them
In a sense that almost makes things worse, especially when it isn’t just the brilliance of a Mark Tele’a or a Len Ikitau or a Cheslin Kolbe which has condemned them to defeat. They have been more than simply witnesses at the crime scene; in each case to some degree or other they have been complicit.
But on the flip side it should not be beyond England to inch from the funeral parlour into the parade ring. There are areas which need fixing up – the defence, both close to the ruck and in blitz mode wider out, being the main one – but the blanket of despair which has descended feels like it has been overdone.
But for the George Ford kick which hit the post against New Zealand and the Maro Itoje restart fumble against the Wallabies, England would have been two wins from three going into the gimme game against Japan this weekend.
Take a step back and there have been bright individual contributions in the November gloom.
Marcus Smith has been a joy. He is edging towards world class now. Will Stuart has debunked the theory the only tight-head prop worth his salt in England is 37. Chandler Cunningham-South was outstanding in the back row against the All Blacks; Sam Underhill, likewise, against the Springboks.
Had this autumn’s schedule been assembled in a different order with Japan first up, there is every chance England would have won the majority of them. With the added cohesion of a game against the Brave Blossoms under their belts – as New Zealand enjoyed – England could well have taken down the All Blacks.
Put the New Zealand scalp in the back pocket and the confidence lift sees them beat Australia; trouser three wins in a row and they run double world champions South Africa even closer.
Ifs, buts and maybes? Absolutely, but the point remains valid that England are near enough to the southern hemisphere giants for small alterations to make a big difference to the outcomes.
Of course, if they get themselves into position England will still have to get over their stage fright when it comes to closing out games but, given they managed to do so against the Irish earlier this year with Smith’s late drop goal, it is not beyond them
As it is of course, a closing win for England against Eddie Jones’s Japan will make no difference whatsoever to the negative narrative. It is too late to change the vibe.
England will go into the Six Nations under a cloud – third favourites behind Ireland and France who they face in their opening two fixtures of the championship. Is 2025 a lost cause already then? You might think so from the mood music.
Why, though?
Ireland have not looked significantly better than England this autumn; France have lost at Twickenham nine times in their past ten visits. It is not the ravings of a madman to make a case for England winning four of their matches and being involved in a title race.
They will hope to have Alex Mitchell, who has been a big miss at scrum-half this autumn, back by then. If they can have a fit Tom Curry and Manny Feyi-Waboso – both of whom have also been sidelined for part of this campaign – England will be a handful.
They will have a defence coach in Joe El-Abd who will then have a proper idea of what Test rugby is all about and a skills coach Kevin Sinfield who will be back with the squad on a more regular basis.
Of course, if they get themselves into position England will still have to get over their stage fright when it comes to closing out games but, given they managed to do so against the Irish earlier this year with Smith’s late drop goal, it is not beyond them. Maybe they try something creative like putting Jamie George on the bench and bringing him on to lead the side in the last quarter.
The fact is England, for all the doom and gloom, still have some very good rugby players. And coming over the horizon are some special talents from the world title-winning under-20s squad, spearheaded by Northampton back-row Henry Pollock. He is still eligible for the age group side but after an impressive performance for England A in the victory over Australia A last weekend, he has a bigger stage beckoning.
It has been reported Steve Borthwick has his sights on bringing another of that successful U20s side, Junior Kpoku, back to England from France, using the lure of an enhanced EPS contract. Likewise Henry Arundell, his super-rapid clubmate at Racing 92, who scored five tries for England against Chile at last year’s World Cup. If Borthwick can land the pair of them and make them eligible for England selection it would add further to his stocks.
Borthwick is under the cosh – his job is to win Test matches and if he doesn’t beat Japan this weekend he cannot survive – but England will win and by some distance. When they start afresh in 2025, the losing streak snapped, do not be surprised if Borthwick’s stumblers begin to find their stride.
