The Diamondbacks avoided arbitration with first baseman/outfielder Pavin Smith by agreeing to a one-year, $1.5MM deal, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’d been projected for a $1.6MM salary by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.
Smith, 29 next month, was selected with the No. 7 pick by Arizona back in 2017. He’s not lived up to that lofty billing but did enjoy a breakout showing in the big leagues this past season, mashing at a .270/.348/.547 clip. That stout production came in a fairly small sample of 158 trips to the plate, but it was supported by career-best batted ball metrics; Smith averaged a hearty 90.2 mph off the bat and put 44% off his batted balls in play at 95 mph or more.
Smith also drew a free pass in an excellent 11.4% of his plate appearances and fanned in a lower-than-average 19.4% of his trips to the plate. As with his quality of contact, that plate discipline holds up with a look under the hood. Only seven percent of hitters in baseball (min. 150 plate appearances) chased pitches off the plate at a lower rate than Smith last season (20.1%). Only 14% of players in that same set made contact at a better rate than Smith’s 90.5% when swinging at pitches within the strike zone. Put more simply, Smith showed keen knowledge of the strike zone and very, very rarely missed when attacking a ball over the plate. That type of discipline and bat-to-ball prowess is hard to fluke your way into over even a sample as limited as his 2024 showing.
This marks Smith’s first offseason of arbitration eligibility and his first time earning noticeably north of the league minimum. He’s out of minor league options, so Smith is a veritable lock to make the Opening Day roster, barring injury.
Smith won’t be entrusted with regular time at first base even after the Snakes lost Christian Walker to free agency, as Arizona quickly pivoted and acquired Josh Naylor to man the position. However, he should log ample time at designated hitter now that Joc Pederson has also left the club for a two-year deal in Texas, and he’d presumably be the primary alternative at first base should Naylor incur an injury or simply require a breather. Smith can also rotate into either left or right field in the event of an injury or day off for Corbin Carroll, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and/or Jake McCarthy. Smith is a career .226/.289/.310 hitter against lefties and thus isn’t likely to see much action against southpaws, but he’s a .249/.333/.427 hitter against righties — including a huge .282/.356/.564 showing this past season. He’s controllable through the 2027 season.
