The Cubs finalized a two-year free agent deal with catcher Carson Kelly on Friday evening. The CAA client is reportedly guaranteed $11.5MM with the chance to earn another $500K annually via incentives. Kelly will make $5MM salaries in each of the next two seasons and is guaranteed a $1.5MM buyout on a $7.5MM mutual option for 2027. He’d trigger a $250K bonus for starting 81 and 91 games in each season. Chicago already had a 40-man roster vacancy after dealing two roster players in this afternoon’s Kyle Tucker trade.
Kelly was the top unsigned catcher. The thin market has moved quickly. Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Higashioka, Gary Sánchez, Danny Jansen, Jacob Stallings and Austin Hedges have all gotten MLB deals. Kelly joins Higashioka and d’Arnaud in securing a second guaranteed year and exceeding the $10MM mark.
The righty-swinging backstop had a nice year in 2024. Kelly started the season particularly well, hitting .240/.325/.391 with seven home runs in 203 trips to the plate for the Tigers. Detroit dealt him to the Rangers at the deadline. That was designed to give Kelly a chance to join a contender, but the Rangers sputtered while the Tigers made a surprise playoff push in the final couple months. Kelly’s bat tailed off after the move, as he hit .235/.291/.343 with two homers over 31 games as a Ranger.
That mediocre finish led Texas to pursue Higashioka instead. Still, Kelly’s combined .238/.313/.374 slash line in 313 plate appearances is solid work from a part-time catcher. Statcast graded him positively for his work behind the plate, crediting him with better than average framing and blocking metrics. While Kelly’s raw arm strength was middle of the pack, he cut down an above-average 26.3% of basestealers.
That was a rebound after Kelly had consecutive poor offensive showings in 2022 and ’23. He combined for a .210/.281/.320 slash between the Diamondbacks and Tigers. Kelly had intermittently shown the upside to be a true #1 catcher early in his career in Arizona. He has since settled in as a quality part-time player.
That’s the role he should play in Chicago. The Cubs can somewhat evenly divide playing time between Kelly and 25-year-old Miguel Amaya. A former top prospect, Amaya struggled early in the year before going on a tear in the final two months of the season. He ended the season with a .232/.288/.357 slash over 363 plate appearances. The strong finish wasn’t enough for the Cubs to forego the catching market entirely, yet it lessened their urgency to entertain trading from the top of the farm system for a clear starter.
Kelly’s salary bumps Chicago’s projected payroll to roughly $199MM, according to the calculations at RosterResource. The $5.75MM average annual value pushes their estimated competitive balance tax number to $215MM. That leaves them around $25MM below the base luxury tax threshold.
Robert Murray of FanSided first reported on Monday that the Cubs and Kelly were closing in on a deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the $11.5MM guarantee. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers first reported the presence of the ’27 mutual option and the potential $500K in annual incentives. Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic had the salary breakdown and specifics on the bonuses. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
