As Jacob deGrom Returns, the Rangers Look Like Contenders

Jacob deGrom made his Cactus League debut on Saturday, tossing two perfect innings against the Royals and looking dominant while doing so. The 36-year-old righty, who returned from his second Tommy John surgery to make three abbreviated starts last September, projects to be the team’s most valuable starter, even while pitching at the back of the rotation in order to limit his innings. He’s the most substantial “addition” to a team that succumbed to a championship hangover last year but is forecast (barely) to have the upper hand in a three-way race in the AL West.

After winning the 2023 World Series in manager Bruce Bochy’s return to the dugout, so much went wrong for the Rangers in terms of injury and underperformance last season that they slipped to 78 wins and third place in the AL West. But while the Astros traded Kyle Tucker and lost Alex Bregman this winter, and the Mariners mostly sat on their hands, the Rangers had a comparatively productive winter, with general manager Chris Young making a couple key trades and adding a handful of free agents to augment their lineup and overhaul their bullpen. Our Playoff Odds currently project Texas for 84.8 wins and a 32.8% chance of winning the division, compared to 84.4 wins for the other two teams, with Seattle’s odds at 30.6% and Houston’s at 29.4%. Obviously, that’s a true toss-up, but things look better for the Rangers than at the start of last year, when even as reigning champs, they projected for 81.8 wins (and 10.7% odds) to the Astros’ 90.5.

Unlike Jake Burger, Kyle Higashioka, Chris Martin and Joc Pederson — the most prominent outside additions to this roster — deGrom was already a Ranger, having signed a five-year, $185 million deal in December 2022. Yet his contribution since putting pen to paper has been minimal. He made just six starts before needing another repair of his torn ulnar collateral ligament on June 12, 2023 (his first was in 2010). Fifteen months and one day later, he returned to throw 10.2 innings spread over three starts, enough to provide some peace of mind heading into the offseason.

Not intending to push deGrom for a 200-inning workload like he managed from 2017–19, the Rangers have ramped him up more slowly. Last week, they announced that he’ll pitch at the back of the rotation, debuting either in Arlington on March 30 against the Red Sox or in Cincinnati on March 31 against the Reds. On Saturday, he made his spring debut in the team’s 15th Cactus League game. He threw 31 pitches (21 strikes) over two perfect innings, striking out three: Kyle Isbel looking at a slider, Bobby Witt Jr. chasing a slider low and away, and Tyler Gentry looking at an outside strike that should have been a ball.

DeGrom went to a three-ball count only against Vinnie Pasquantino in the first inning; he recovered from a 3-1 count, getting the Royals slugger to foul off a couple of pitches before popping up a slider. He got four whiffs in all, three via the slider, and 11 called strikes for a 35% CSW rate. His four-seam fastball averaged 97 mph and topped out at 98, while his slider averaged 90.3 mph. He mixed in just two curveballs.

DeGrom’s stated goal of making 30 starts is probably a bit ambitious. Our Depth Charts project him for somewhere around 22 starts totaling 132 innings, but a handsome 2.99 ERA, 2.76 FIP, and 4.0 WAR. The Rangers didn’t even have a pitcher reach 3.0 WAR last year; Nathan Eovaldi led the staff with 2.7, and the group ranked just 22nd in the majors with 9.7 WAR. Max Scherzer, who underwent December 2023 surgery for a herniated disc after being forced off the World Series roster, made just nine starts; he’s gone in free agency, as is Andrew Heaney, the only Ranger to make 30 starts last year, and one of two besides Eovaldi to top 100 innings.

Thus the rotation has been reshaped, albeit without any notable outside additions. After hitting free agency, Eovaldi re-signed on a three-year, $75 million deal, accounting for more money than the Rangers guaranteed to their other seven major league free agents combined. Righties Jon Gray and Tyler Mahle and lefty Cody Bradford are expected to round out the rotation. None had complete seasons in the majors last year. Gray was limited to 19 starts by a recurrent groin strain and a neuroma in his right foot. Bradford, a former sixth-round pick who entered last season as the team’s no. 9 prospect (45 FV), made 13 starts, including just three in April before a lower back strain sidelined him for three and a half months. Mahle, signed to a two-year, $22 million deal while midway through rehabbing from May 2023 Tommy John surgery, made just three starts before returning to the injured list due to shoulder tightness.

With 2022 first round pick Kumar Rocker and ’21 first rounder Jack Leiter also expected to contribute after debuting last year — Rocker’s three starts went pretty well, but Leiter was lit up — the Rangers rotation projects to be one of the majors’ best. They rank ninth on our Depth Charts with a projected 13.4 WAR; four teams, including the starter-rich Mariners, are tied immediately above them at 13.5 WAR.

Turning to the bullpen, last year’s unit wasn’t much to write home about, ranking 25th in the majors in WAR (2.0) while posting a 4.41 ERA and 4.37 FIP. With six of the seven relievers who threw at least 25 innings no longer in the organization — including free agents David Robertson, José Leclerc, José Ureña, and Kirby Yates — it’s a whole new ballgame for the group. The team acquired lefty Robert Garcia from the Nationals in a December trade for Nathaniel Lowe, and inked five pitchers to major league deals, plus another three to minor league deals:

None of these guys saved more than two games last year, and only Jackson and Martin have more than eight career saves (19 for the former, 14 for the latter). Said Bochy last week, “Right now, I’d say we are not going to have a defined closer… We have some guys that we think we can get the matchups that we want.”

The overhauled bullpen ranks a respectable 11th on our Depth Charts, with Martin, Garcia, and Webb the best bets for high-leverage work to start the year. Among the holdovers, one of last year’s starters, Dane Dunning, projects to be the long man, while going-on-24-year-old righty Marc Church, a 40+ FV prospect who debuted with a scoreless inning last September 28, could play a significant role. Church, who was limited to 25.2 innings by a shoulder strain last year while splitting time between High- and Triple-A, is a converted infielder whose fastball has touched 99 mph this spring, and whose slider/cutter has been graded plus by multiple outlets. Bochy believes he has the stuff to be a high-leverage reliever, saying, “I see him having that role sometime down the road here. It could be when we break camp. This is how good we think he can be.”

As for the lineup, hopes were high last year that a full season of late-2023 phenom Evan Carter, plus the addition of no. 2 overall prospect Wyatt Langford, and continued strong production from a 20-something core (Lowe, Jonah Heim, Josh Jung, Leody Taveras) to augment their 30-and-over heavy hitters (Adolis García, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien) would add up to a potent offense. Instead, just about everybody mentioned save for Langford and the departed Lowe took steps back either due to injuries or regression, and the team fell from a 116 wRC+ (third in the majors in 2023) to a 95 (22nd) while scoring 198 fewer runs (4.22 per game, eighth in the AL).

The Rangers didn’t even escape the first week of last season unscathed, as Jung was hit on the right wrist by a pitch on April 1, suffering a fracture that required surgery that kept him sidelined until late July. He played just 46 games before being shut down in mid-September for surgery to release a tendon. Carter, a September 2023 call-up who placed 12th on last year’s Top 100 Prospects list, played just 45 games and managed an 80 wRC+ before being sidelined by a lumbar sprain in late May; he didn’t play again. Langford, the fourth pick of the 2023 draft and no. 2 on our Top 100, managed just a 68 wRC+ through the season’s first five weeks before missing three weeks due to a hamstring strain. Though he had his ups and downs, he still finished with a 110 wRC+ and a respectable 2.9 WAR. Seager, fresh off winning his second World Series MVP award before his 30th birthday, actually played more games in 2024 than ’23 (123 vs. 119), but didn’t play after September 2 due to surgery to repair a sports hernia.

Yet injuries didn’t explain everything. García, who was replaced on the World Series roster due to an oblique strain after winning ALCS MVP honors, was healthy last season but his production took a nosedive, from a 126 wRC+ and 4.6 WAR to a 92 wRC+ and -0.2 WAR. Heim, like García, slipped from All-Star to replacement level, which in his case meant a plummet from a 105 wRC+ and 4.0 WAR to a 70 wRC+ and -0.1 WAR. Semien, who tied Seager for second in the AL in WAR (6.3) in 2023, fell from a 126 wRC+ to a 99, with his WAR dipping to a still-respectable 4.2.

Young didn’t break the bank to shore up the lineup, but he didn’t stand idle either. In December, the Rangers signed Higashioka to a two-year, $13.5 million deal to pair with Heim, who over the past three seasons has caught more innings than all but three catchers. Higashioka, who spent last season with the Padres, hit .220/.263/.476 with career highs in homers (17), wRC+ (105) and WAR (1.6, matching his 2022 showing with the Yankees). Both members of the tandem rank among the majors’ top 10 in framing runs over the past three seasons. They’ll split the catching duties.

Later in December, Young acquired Burger from the Marlins in exchange for a trio of prospects, then dealt away Lowe. Burger, who turns 29 on April 10, will take over at first base. While his offensive performance (.250/.301/.460, 106 wRC+) wasn’t as good as Lowe’s (.265/.361/.401, 120 wRC+), he offers more power and should help the team improve upon a meager .380 SLG. Also adding welcome power is Pederson, who signed a two-year, $37 million deal in December. He’s coming off a stellar .275/.393/.515 (151 wRC+) showing with the Diamondbacks, setting across-the-board career highs with that slash line and 3.0 WAR. While some regression is likely as he heads into his age-33 season, as the long half of a DH platoon he should help the Rangers improve significantly on the AL-worst 65 wRC+ they received from their DHs (mainly Langford, García, Robbie Grossman, Travis Jankowski and Josh Smith).

Regarding the outfield, beyond the addition of 36-year-old righty Kevin Pillar, who hit just .229/.291/.377 (88 wRC+) with the White Sox and Angels, and signed a minor league deal last month, the Rangers hope that the 23-year-old Langford, 21-year-old Carter, 32-year-old García, and 26-year-old Taveras can be a lot more productive than in 2024. It’s not the worst bet given that the group skews young, but it’s not like they’ve got additional top 20 prospects in reserve if they need to patch things.

As their win projection suggests, the Rangers don’t look like a powerhouse. But neither do the Astros or Mariners, and with the losses of Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil and Giancarlo Stanton, even the Yankees’ AL-best projection is down to 85.7 wins. While there are no shortage of ifs here — if deGrom can finally contribute, if Carter and García can rebound, if Jung can stay healthy, if the bullpen can jell — the Rangers have enough talent that this could be a very competitive team.