I’ve already predicted the regular-season standings for all six divisions in the major leagues. The next logical step, of course, is to forecast the postseason.
That’s what I’ll be doing today and in the next two installments of Baseball’s Best (and Worst). I’m going to begin with the American League, followed by the National League on Tuesday and the World Series at the end of next week.
These links offer a look back at my expectations for the AL in the year to come:
The AL’s three divisional champions, according to my predictions, will be the Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros, and Minnesota Twins. I’ve listed them in order of their seeds, as determined by the number of points they received from my history-based prediction system.
The three wild-card entries will be the Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees, and Detroit Tigers, respectively seeded fourth through sixth.
The two top-rated teams in each league — the 1 and 2 seeds — get byes in the wild-card round. They subsequently play the two wild-card winners in a pair of division series, culminating in the league’s championship series. The winner, of course, heads on to the World Series.
What follows is my script for the American League’s postseason ladder in October 2025. I ran 1,000 simulations of each series, powered by each club’s prediction score. I kept things simple, advancing the team that won more than 500 simulations to the next round. (But prospective upsets were always lurking. You’ll notice that the underdogs were victorious in hundreds of matchups in every series.)
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Matchup: Minnesota Twins (3 seed, first place in AL Central, 94 prediction points) vs. Detroit Tigers (6 seed, second place in AL Central, 83 prediction points)
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Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Twins 522, Tigers 478
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Bottom line: The Twins scored 20 fewer prediction points than one of the wild-card entries, the Seattle Mariners. But the postseason schedule is tilted in favor of divisional champions, handing Minnesota this fairly cushy slot against an AL Central foe. The Twins will advance.
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Matchup: Seattle Mariners (4 seed, second place in AL West, 114 prediction points) vs. New York Yankees (5 seed, second place in AL East, 86 prediction points)
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Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Mariners 570, Yankees 430
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Bottom line: This is the most lopsided series in the American League. The Mariners outperformed the Yankees by 28 prediction points, setting the stage for a mismatch. My computer gives Seattle a decided advantage.
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Matchup: Baltimore Orioles (1 seed, first place in AL East, 117 prediction points) vs. Seattle Mariners (4 seed, second place in AL West, 114 prediction points)
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Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Orioles 510, Mariners 490
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Bottom line: The schedule doesn’t give Baltimore any favors. The Orioles led the entire league in prediction points, yet they draw a wild-card opponent, Seattle, which finished just three points behind. Baltimore is a slight favorite.
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Matchup: Houston Astros (2 seed, first place in AL West, 115 prediction points) vs. Minnesota Twins (3 seed, first place in AL Central, 94 prediction points)
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Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Astros 536, Twins 464
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Bottom line: The Astros get a far easier path through the ALDS than Baltimore does. Houston is pitted against Minnesota, the least skilled of the three divisional champions. The computer expects the Astros to prevail.
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Matchup: Baltimore Orioles (1 seed, first place in AL East, 117 prediction points) vs. Houston Astros (2 seed, first place in AL West, 115 prediction points)
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Wins in 1,000 simulated series: Astros 502, Orioles 498
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Bottom line: The top two seeds meet in the ALCS. Their totals of prediction points are virtually identical, though their levels of postseason experience are vastly different. Houston has played in seven of the past eight championship series, while Baltimore hasn’t appeared in an ALCS since 2014. The Astros are given the slightest of nods in 2025.
