The Lions selection meetings are now over and players will find out their Test fate imminently
At the time of writing, only the British and Irish Lions coaches know what they will do with selection ahead of the first Test against Australia in Brisbane on Saturday.
Well, that is if you believe what they told the media on Tuesday. The selection meetings have taken place and the players will be informed on Wednesday whether they’re in or not. It’s hard to believe they would have trained on Tuesday without the players having some knowledge of the team, but that’s the Lions’ story and they sticking to it.
Secretive is how the tourists are playing it. Any mention of selection meetings and conversations between coaches are given little in the way of lengthy answers; headed off at the pass with as few details as possible.
They’ve been and gone. We know that much. Decisions reached weren’t easy. Another given.
From a Welsh perspective, there’s just one question. Jac Morgan – in or not?
Put another way, do Wales keep up their record of providing a Lion in every Test since 1899 or not?
Competition is fierce. Josh van der Flier and Tom Curry are both world-class opensides, with Ben Earl, Jack Conan and Henry Pollock also competing for back-row places.
There’s also the decision for Andy Farrell on whether he goes for a hybrid second-row at blindside. Ollie Chessum and Tadhg Beirne have both played there – with the former in particular impressing when starting there against the Brumbies last week.
Given it’s understood Farrell had some concerns ahead of the tour about his back-row options being too similar, the use of a hybrid in the six jersey makes sense for balance.
That could make it a shootout between three top-quality opensides in Curry, Morgan and van der Flier – with each having distinct strengths they would bring to the side.
Perhaps the one area that goes in Morgan’s favour that doesn’t get talked about too much is his work at the attacking breakdown.
However, it’s something that has gone relatively well for the Lions while he’s been on the pitch. In the two games Morgan has started in Australia, the Lions have lost just one attacking ruck. Get the latest breaking Welsh rugby news stories sent straight to your inbox with our FREE daily newsletter. Sign up here.
In the three games he didn’t start, they lost 14. It’s not an exact science – there are so many variables – but, for the Lions, it seems that when Morgan is on the field, their attacking breakdown efficiency just works better.
Wayne Pivac used to call the attacking breakdown one of the most important parts of the game. “We have a couple of hundred breakdowns in a game,” he said back in 2022, comparing that to the much smaller number of scrums and lineouts.
The Lions are aware of its importance, too. They know Australia will target them in this area, given they possess some good jackallers like Fraser McReight.
“We know how well Joe Schmidt coaches his team,” said assistant coach Richard Wigglesworth on Tuesday. “What we’re clear on is that they’ll come with a very clear plan.
“We think the breakdown and aerial game will be big, but we think we’re pretty good there too.
“The boys have done well, it’s probably always the hardest thing and naturally it’s going to look a bit clunky at times but there are some reasons for that. We haven’t got the breakdown quite right in a couple of games and there’s not a team in world rugby that looks good without a decent breakdown.
“We were better at that at the weekend and we know we need to be better at that again this weekend.
“I think everything goes into it (fixing the breakdown). It’s never just the breakdown.
“It’s never just bodies. It’s how you set up. Your reaction to it.
“The speed you’re in there, the height you’re in there, the aggression you show, the decision you make when you’re in there. The ball-carrier, how he places the ball.
“All those things that go into it that are hard to do with no training. But I thought the boys at the weekend did a really good job of tidying that up on Saturday (against AUNZ XV).
“They look a big step forward from Saturday/Wednesday to that, which was really pleasing without much training.”
Prior to the tour, Morgan had been hitting roughly seven more attacking rucks per 80 minutes since the start of 2024 compared to Curry. Ireland openside van der Flier was clearing out around seven more per match than Morgan, coincidentally – but the breakdown efficiency hasn’t seemed to have followed the Irishman in the way it has Morgan.
That could be down to van der Flier usually being partnered with a hybrid at six. For what it’s worth, Morgan has also had more defensive ruck involvements per 80 minutes than both Curry and van der Flier since the start of Opta.
But his work on that side of the ball has always been plain to see.
Of course, the coaches already know which way they’re going with selection. Perhaps the way the breakdown is managed – on attack as much as defence – might have been a big factor in any discussions earlier this week.
