I think the All Blacks will thrash France on Saturday.
Well, let me clarify that slightly. I’ll be appalled if they don’t.
There’s a couple of reasons why I believe Saturday’s second match in this three-test series won’t be a contest. The first, is that I suspect France have fired their best shot and, second, I don’t believe the All Blacks are entirely stupid.
New Zealand
France
New Zealand’s 31-27 win over France in Dunedin was embarrassing for the hosts. Not because France opted not to bring a full-strength team to these shores, but because the brand of rugby played by the All Blacks was so inappropriate for the occasion.
France had a debutant playing at first five-eighth and still gave the All Blacks a lesson in how to play test rugby.
New Zealand, by contrast, appeared determined to play Super Rugby, despite boasting playmakers in Beauden Barrett and Damian McKenzie with almost 200 test caps between them.
I’m no fan of Super Rugby. There’s no doubt it provides poor preparation for the international arena, compared to what France’s B team rolled out.
Head-to-Head
Last 5 Meetings
Average Points scored
If you ever wondered whether the Top 14 was simply where ageing international players went to get one last payday, you got your answer.
If the All Blacks’ brainstrust can’t see how limited but effective France were and how frivolous and profligate they were by comparison, then they’re all in the wrong jobs.
The All Blacks had enough ball to win the first test by 40 points. They had the perfect conditions they crave, almost every first-choice player available and were facing opponents of only modest ability.
I was thinking back to the June test matches of 1998, ahead of this series.
Back then, England were the opponents. They sent a depleted squad themselves, while the All Blacks were going through the transition from being a team led by gnarled veterans such as Sean Fitzpatrick and Zinzan Brooke and into one that quickly became mentally frail.
Most folk won’t need reminding that the All Blacks ended 1998 with five defeats on the trot.
But we weren’t to know that in June. At that time we still regarded the team as ruthless and all-conquering.
And so it proved against England, who were beaten 64-22 in Dunedin and then 40-10 at Eden Park.
The ferocity and accuracy of the All Blacks’ play was simply too much for England and points flowed off the back of that physical domination.
I wondered if there were parallels to be drawn between then and now. I wondered if this All Blacks team would be similarly clinical against these token 2025 tourists.
I certainly hoped that would be the case.
The All Blacks did at least win last week. It’s just that the manner of that victory showed glaring holes in the team’s strategy.
It was rugby played without thought. It was lazy, complacent. It was the kind of footy you dish up after growing fat on flogging inept Super franchises for months.
That’s what I meant about the All Blacks not being entirely stupid. I mean, surely they recognise that the style of rugby they sought to play last Saturday isn’t fit for purpose against France B/C let alone a truly formidable test line-up.
Because, if they don’t, then you wonder what hope there is for this team.
Regardless of the inadequacies of Super Rugby, Barrett and McKenzie aren’t Joris Segonds. That wasn’t their first rodeo and they of all people shouldn’t need to be shown how to control a test match by a 28-year-old journeyman on debut.
Not for the first time, I watched Saturday’s test and felt for an All Blacks forward pack that’s done its job, only to see the backs make a bit of a hash of theirs.
Sport always offers the opportunity to atone. What was bad one week can quickly become good the next and I have sufficient faith in the All Blacks’ collective intelligence to believe they’ll be better this time around.
It’ll be a bit of a worry if they’re not.
