While the Astros have been intent on trying to re-sign Alex Bregman this offseason, the club landed a potential third base backup option in Isaac Paredes, and is now looking at an even bigger option at the hot corner. The Athletic’s Chandler Rome reports that Houston has “emerged as a serious suitor for” Nolan Arenado’s services, though a trade isn’t “believed to be imminent.”
Since the Cardinals are looking to create more playing time for younger players and reduce payroll, the club has been open about its attempts to trade Arenado this offseason. The third baseman has a full no-trade clause but is open to waiving it in the right situation, as agent Joel Wolfe stressed that Arenado is only willing to leave St. Louis for “a team that he thinks is going to win now and consistently for the remainder of his career. He wants a team that has the throttle down….that he believes he can jump right in and they’re going to win right now.”
The Astros would seemingly fit that description as longtime playoff regulars who are trying to keep their contention window, but it is unclear if Arenado would have interest in going to Houston. The Dodgers, Padres, Angels, Phillies, Mets, and Red Sox are the six teams Arenado would reportedly be willing to play for, but it isn’t known if any clubs beyond this group would also meet his approval for a waiver of his no-trade privileges.
Beyond the no-trade clause, the Astros and Cardinals also have to work out the terms of the actual deal, and finances could present an obstacle. Rome writes that “the Astros will ask the Cardinals to help pay down” the $74MM owed to Arenado over the final three years of his contract. (Only $64MM is technically the Cards’ responsibility, as the Rockies are covering $10MM of that figure as per the term of the 2021 trade that brought Arenado from Colorado to St. Louis.) Whether or not the Cardinals are willing to cover any of Arenado’s salary is an open question, and if so, it’ll be a matter of whether they can match figures with the Astros or any other suitor, or if St. Louis is willing to take on an unwanted contract as salary offset.
Some additional baggage might stand in a way of an Astros/Cardinals trade in particular. Former Cardinals scouting director Chris Correa was found guilty in federal court over charges of illegally accessing the Astros’ proprietary baseball operations database in 2013 and 2014, and MLB punished the Cardinals by forcing them to give $2MM and their top picks in the 2017 draft to the Astros as punishment. Though Houston’s front office has since been overhauled and Chaim Bloom is set to replace John Mozeliak next year as the Cards’ next president of baseball operations, the two teams haven’t completed a trade with other since 2012, hinting at some lingering bad blood.
Astros GM Dana Brown said yesterday that the team’s decision to trade Kyle Tucker (and get Paredes back in the trade package from the Cubs) didn’t indicate that anything changed in Houston’s pursuit of a reunion with Bregman. KPRC’s Ari Alexander also hears from a source that the Astros remain among “the strong four” top contenders for Bregman along with the Red Sox, Mets, and Yankees, with the Tigers and Blue Jays also linked to Bregman’s market.
Technically, a scenario exists where Houston could re-sign Bregman, install Arenado at first base, and then have Paredes at DH whenever Yordan Alvarez is in left field. But, more realistically, trading for Arenado would surely close the door on the chances of a reunion between Bregman and the Astros. Reports have indicated that Houston has offered Bregman a six-year, $156MM contract, but if he and his camp have indicated that a larger outlay is necessary, that might explain why the Astros now have given more attention to Arenado since the end of Winter Meetings. With at least the Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox in on both third basemen, it make sense that the Astros would also explore both options out of due diligence.
