Looking at the Results of the Draft Lottery

This week, Major League Baseball hosted the second-ever draft lottery. The event featured representatives from each non-playoff team and was used to select the draft order for the 2025 amateur draft that will take place next summer. The order ended as follows

1. Nationals

2. Angels

3. Mariners

4. Rockies

5. Cardinals

6. Pirates

7. Marlins

8. Blue Jays

9. Reds

10. White Sox

11. Athletics

12. Rangers

13. Giants

14. Rays

15. Red Sox

16. Twins

17. Cubs

18. Diamondbacks

Here, we’ll be looking at some big winners and losers from the night as well as some early candidates for the coveted first pick of next year’s draft. Couple notes: The Athletics and White Sox were ineligible to receive a t10 pick, explaining why they ended so low despite poor performances in the 2024 season

The Seattle Mariners were by far the biggest winners of the lottery this week. Going into the event, the club had the 15th-best odds to receive the first overall pick. Coming off another remarkably mediocre season, the third overall pick will arm the Mariners with 1) a high draft pick and 2) a significantly increased bonus pool available to use during the draft. This will allow the club to acquire more talent at the back end of the draft. Their farm system already features a substantial amount of talent, and the rewards from this draft lottery should only help them bolster the system. 

The Cardinals came into the event with the 13th-best odds at the first overall pick and left with the 5th pick in the draft, a turn of events that is sure to leave the organization happy with the results. The club could certainly use some extra reinforcements for their farm system, and 2025 they should be able to do just that. As mentioned with the Mariners, the Cardinals will receive additional funds available to use in their draft bonus pool with the pick which should free them up to acquire some talented prep players later in the draft. 

Despite coming into the lottery with the (tied for) best odds at the first pick, the bounce of the lottery ball left them with the 7th pick in 2025. This continues to add on to the long list of unfortunate events that have plagued the organization in recent memory. Their farm system currently ranks about middle of the pack in the league, and while they’ll be able to reinforce it a bit this draft, they won’t be able to do so as dramatically as they would have with the first overall pick. Couple that with the loss of bonus pool money that they’ll receive, and it was a terrible, no good, very bad day for Miami.

The Rockies were also tied with the best odds at the first pick, and while they didn’t skid as far down the ladder as the Marlins, they still ended up with the 4th pick. The Rockies have started to turn things around in recent years, drafting really well in the past couple of seasons and adding names such as Charlie Condon and Chase Dollander. Luckily for them, this draft class is shaping up to be fairly deep at the top, although I’m sure they would have more than welcomed the increased bonus pool they would have received with the first pick.

The son of Matt and brother of Jackson, Ethan is the next Holliday poised to break into the league. Ranked as the best available prospect on multiple early 2025 boards, Ethan has an uber-physical frame that is significantly larger than Jackson’s was at the same age. He’s able to tap into some legitimate raw power, though I do have some slight concerns on the hit tool. In the field, Ethan will hold his own on the left side with smooth actions and a solid arm. Even if he does get moved to third, the bat should more than make up for the loss in defensive value.

Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M

On the college side, LaViollete possesses a really intriguing skillset with immense raw power from the left side and a physically imposing frame. Coming off of a spectacular season last year headlined by 29 home runs, he’s poised to once again be a force in the SEC. With a big year from him, the Nationals may have a hard time passing on him.

Arnold features some of the most unique pitch release characteristics at the college level. He comes from a low, sidearm slot that has proved to be nearly unhittable throughout his collegiate career. Both the fastball and the slider grade out well above average, and his changeup has taken steps each year. If he goes on a Paul Skenes-esque run throughout the season, Mike Rizzo has proven he’s not afraid to select pitchers with the first pick as he did so with Stephen Strasburg, though his injury-ridden career could be enough to give him pause. Regardless, Arnold is my top pitcher in this year’s draft with a real chance to be the first player selected this summer.