The first All Blacks squad of 2025 is less than a week from being named, and pundits have piled extra emphasis on the upcoming campaign as coach Scott Robertson builds towards the 2027 Rugby World Cup.
The conversation came about on The Breakdown as the panel of former All Blacks debated the potential selection of young Hurricanes N0. 8 Peter Lakai, who is tipped to have a bright future in the black jersey but has his work cut out for him earning selection amongst an uber-talented field.
Lakai has two Test caps to his name, a tally that will need to be added to before he can stake any kind of claim on a spot in the All Blacks’ matchday 23 at the upcoming World Cup.
Test experience is something that often comes up on the eve of Rugby World Cups, but coaches must plan ahead to ensure players are given the best chance to succeed. Former Test winger Jeff Wilson broke down the numbers to highlight the importance of selections in 2025.
“I do the numbers, and the numbers suggest to me there’s probably 30-35 Test matches (remaining). All Blacks coaches in the past have said that they would like to have somewhere between 30, 40, 50 Test matches in terms of experience,” Wilson explained on Sky Sport NZ‘s flagship rugby panel show.
“I’m going to give you some numbers then, this is the average Test caps. It’s based around at Rugby World Cups, the number of average Tests our players have.
“So, we start talking around ’11, ’15, ’19 and ’23. As you see in ’11, we were a young team; it took one point, a one-point win to get the job done. ’15, it goes up a little bit more. ’19, it goes slightly down, and then 45 in ’23.
“So, I sit here and go, ‘we’re one play away from winning the 2023 World Cup’. But here’s another number for you as well. Against Italy last year, the last Test match of the year, we actually had an average of 53 Test matches.
“If you take out Sam Cane, TJ Perenara, who are now not there, and Ofa Tu’ungafasi, who’s not available through injury, we were still at 48.
“So, for me, I look at our group, I look at our experience, most of them, in two years’ time, are still going to be there. So, experience isn’t going to be a problem.”
While Scott ‘Razor’ Robertson blooded 10 new players in 2024, he kept the bulk of the established talent, even those veterans who were confirmed to be ineligible for selection moving forward. If those new players can stick around, they have the chance to reach the 30-cap threshold by 2027.
Wilson’s co-panellist, Stephen ‘Beaver’ Donald, was the man who scored the winning points in the 2011 Rugby World Cup final, and added extra context to the value of the experience in the current squad.
“And World Cup experience isn’t going to be (a problem) either, because they’re all the guys that you talk about, the herd from 2023.
“Look at those other numbers, ’11 carried on to ’15 essentially, it was very much the same squad. So, they tick all those boxes. Having a 50-odd Test experience average, that’s a luxury.”
