Bath have to be favourites after dominating the regular season and with a treble on the line but Leicester have the game to upset the odds.
So much of this final, like many others, will depend on how each team manages the emotion of the occasion as much as how they impose their game on the opposition and both have narratives that could be used as added motivation or go against them if they aren’t careful.
Tigers need to avoid making the same mistake they did in 2005 when I was involved and we were guilty of making too much of the fact it was Martin Johnson’s last game and it went pear-shaped with Wasps winning convincingly in the end.
Ben Youngs and Dan Cole have been legends for club and country, and Julian Montoya and Handre Pollard are moving elsewhere too, but you just can’t make that the main driver for the week or you’ll come unstuck.
Youngs and Cole would both undoubtedly take a narrow win to ride off into the sunset in style and only come on for 30 seconds as opposed to coming on for a big fanfare and lose the final so it has to be about the players who are on the pitch for the most part.
Pollard has had an up and down spell in the East Midlands but inevitably his head-to-head with Finn Russell is going to draw more attention than any other individual battle and if Leicester can get the edge up front, you’d back him to deliver in the clutch moments.
He’s done it twice on the very biggest stage in the sport and, while Bath will probably look to mix it up and play in a number of different ways, you can expect Tigers to play the percentages and keep it tight with Pollard the best there is at steering his side home.
Johann van Graan’s selection of Miles Reid in the back row, alongside Guy Pepper and Ted Hill, suggests they might try to keep the tempo high on what looks like being a pretty hot afternoon and with the opposition pack being more physical and a bit less mobile.
They’re two incredibly well-matched sides though and the quality of the benches looks very similar too, even though that’s where Bath have had a lot of joy this season when they’ve unloaded their own version of the bomb squad in the second half.
They have gone for a 6-2 split, with Leicester going for a traditional 5-3 split, so that could play a part at the death with Alfie Barbeary and Josh Bayliss likely to have big impacts in particular but Emeka Iliona and Izaia Perese have been key for Tigers of late too.
If Leicester can avoid falling into the trap of focusing too much on their departing players, and head coach, then all the pressure should be on Bath as they were streets ahead in the regular season, are seeking redemption after last year and have a very rare treble on the line.
The men from the west country delivered in the Challenge Cup and Premiership Rugby Cup finals but this is the one they’ve wanted all year, well for 29 long years since they last lifted the trophy in 1996, and it’s all been building to this for them.
The history of that long drought and the rivalry with Tigers might not have any bearing on the match but it’s great for the media and more importantly the fans as there are generations who have grown up with this being the big one.
I was playing the last time these two met in a final at Twickenham, in the 2001 Zurich Championship final, and it was always drilled into us how much it meant to beat Bath but that has fallen away a bit with Bath’s struggles over the past couple of decades.
It seems to be back now and there will be a lot of fans inside Allianz Stadium and watching from further afield who remember the English Cup finals in the 1980s and 1990s and the other epic clashes from the amateur era and early professional era.
It’s fantastic to see them both at the top table once more and you’d fancy Bath being back again next season with their recruitment, whereas Leicester might have to wait a while longer with Michael Cheika departing and Geoff Parling left with a bit of rebuilding to do.
In the here and now, Tigers very much need to keep it tight as they’re not a team that you can see coming back from a 15-point deficit but they’ll be looking to get a territorial edge and unleash Adam Radwan and Ollie Hassell-Collins when the time is right.
With Russell’s box of tricks, Bath can strike from anywhere so they won’t be as worried about falling behind but they’ll be looking to nullify Leicester at the breakdown and get the quick ball that suits their game.
A lot of neutrals will want Bath to win and it’d be quite something for the league to have a sixth different champion in the last six seasons but not many would begrudge Youngs and Cole the perfect send off after a million appearances between them and all the blood, sweat and tears they’ve put into the Leicester jersey over the years.
Finals are normally tight, tense and cagey though and if they can keep a lid on the emotions until after the game and get just a slight edge in the physical confrontation, I just have a feeling it’ll be Tigers getting their paws on the trophy by two points with Pollard to the fore once again in a major final.
