Clay Holmes is one of the top bullpen arms in free agency. While Holmes is surely drawing interest in his typical relief role, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that a few clubs are considering the right-hander as a candidate for a move to the rotation. According to Sherman, the Mets are among the teams looking into Holmes as a potential starter.
The bullpen-to-rotation move has become increasingly prevalent in recent years. The Rays have found success with rotation conversions for the likes of Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs and Zack Littell. The Yankees started to stretch Michael King out into rotation work at the end of the 2023 season. King dominated in that role, centered the Padres’ trade return for Juan Soto, and turned in an excellent first full season as a starter.
Teams have been especially willing to stretch free agent signees back into rotation work. San Diego hit on their decision to sign Seth Lugo as a starter going into 2023. One year later, Lugo finished second in Cy Young balloting for the Royals. The Braves and Giants took this path with Reynaldo López and Jordan Hicks, respectively, last winter. Hicks tailed off in the second half, but López turned in a 1.99 earned run average over 25 starts for Atlanta (albeit with a pair of late-season injured list stints). The White Sox developed Garrett Crochet from a talented reliever with workload concerns to a top-of-the-rotation arm who should net them a huge trade return this offseason. The Angels found some success with a rotation move for sinkerballer José Soriano.
Given the number of hits just within the past three to four years, it’s little surprise teams are interested in continuing the experiment. Jeff Hoffman, the top righty reliever of the free agent class, has already gotten attention as a starter. There’s risk in taking a successful pitcher out of the role in which he’s most comfortable, but the upside of a successful rotation move is tremendous. Even if the pitcher flames out as a starter, as A.J. Puk did with the Marlins this year, there’s a decent chance he could return to the ’pen without too much issue.
Holmes, who turns 32 on Opening Day, has essentially no major league experience as a starting pitcher. He has made four MLB starts, all of which came as a rookie with the Pirates in 2018. That’s a minuscule sample from six years ago, so there’s little to be gleaned from it, but Holmes struggled in that look (15 innings of 7.80 ERA ball with 13 walks and 12 strikeouts). Like many big league relievers, Holmes did work as a starting pitcher for the bulk of his minor league career.
Since moving to the bullpen, Holmes has essentially scrapped his changeup. His mid-upper 90s sinker is his primary pitch. He has a pair of distinct breaking balls (a slider around 87 MPH and a sweeper in the 83-84 MPH range) and uses each 20-25% of the time. That’s more promising for a potential rotation move than if he were strictly limited to two pitches. Still, he’d likely try out changeup or splitter grips if he’s working deeper into games. Finding a viable changeup, which is easier said than done, would give him a different look as he faces left-handed hitters multiple times in an outing.
Holmes has had some platoon issues throughout his career. He has stifled righty batters to a .209/.295/.293 slash across 843 plate appearances. Lefties have hit .250/.359/.346 over 618 trips to the plate. There’s a huge discrepancy in his strikeout and walk profile. Holmes has excellent strikeout and walk numbers (28.9% and 8.7%, respectively) when he holds the platoon advantage. His K/BB rates against left-handed hitters (18.9% and 12.9%, respectively) are very poor. He has been able to avoid the home run ball against hitters from either side of the plate, though. He gets a ton of grounders regardless of his opponent’s handedness, which served him well over three and a half seasons at Yankee Stadium.
Overall, Holmes had a strong run as New York’s closer. He turned in a 2.69 ERA across 217 2/3 innings as a Yankee. Holmes has topped 20 saves in each of the last three years and set a career mark with 30 saves this past season, but his production wobbled midway through the year. Holmes gave up the lead 13 times, five more than any other pitcher. The Yanks bumped him from the ninth inning for Luke Weaver down the stretch and into the playoffs. Holmes continued to struggle in September before finishing the year with 12 innings of 2.25 ERA ball in the postseason. He recorded five holds and didn’t blow a lead in October.
The Mets lost a trio of starters — Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana and Luis Severino — to free agency. They’ve begun to backfill the rotation by agreeing to a two-year deal with Frankie Montas. There’s a lot more work to be done as they build around Kodai Senga and David Peterson. The Mets are sensible fits for any of the top free agent starters, but president of baseball operations David Stearns has gone the reclamation route with the Manaea, Severino and Montas signings over the past two winters. New York has more than enough payroll space to sign a top-tier free agent (e.g. Corbin Burnes, Max Fried) and add another starter from the middle of the market. MLBTR predicts a three-year, $30MM contract for Holmes, who did not receive a qualifying offer and wouldn’t cost any draft compensation.
