Guards in the NBA must threaten defenses as drivers. Rim pressure and slashing are imperative skills, especially when projecting translation to the pros from college or pro leagues. Even for guards who aren’t high flyers, driving helps open up their passing and shooting games.
Learning about prospects’ driving and finishing can help us project guards to the next level. I compiled data for all relevant guard prospects in the 2025 class that describe their ability to pressure the basket, score at the rim and create high value shots:
| HC Rim frequency | HC Rim% | Dunks | Free Throw Rate | |
| xaivian lee | 45.50% | 48.30% | 1 | 29.2 |
| kam jones | 43.60% | 64.80% | 0 | 16.6 |
| dylan harper | 39.30% | 63% | 10 | 42.1 |
| wesley yates | 37.70% | 51.70% | 6 | 27.7 |
| labaron philon | 37.20% | 49.30% | 5 | 26.7 |
| sergio de larrea | 36.40% | 56.30% | 5 | 36 |
| jeremiah fears | 36.30% | 46.40% | 7 | 51 |
| mark sears | 36.20% | 48.40% | 0 | 51.2 |
| egor demin | 34.60% | 63.50% | 12 | 30.8 |
| jaland lowe | 33.40% | 56.50% | 0 | 37.5 |
| anthony robinson | 33.30% | 51.30% | 6 | 78.3 |
| nolan traore | 33.10% | 58.60% | 2 | 31 |
| jase richardson | 32.90% | 72.20% | 4 | 39.2 |
| kasparas jakucionis | 32.70% | 62.90% | 1 | 47.8 |
| ben saraf | 32.20% | 56.70% | 10 | 30 |
| ian jackson | 31.50% | 55.60% | 8 | 30.3 |
| bennett stirtz | 31.40% | 66.70% | 10 | 40.2 |
| tamin lipsey | 30.90% | 63.60% | 1 | 37.1 |
| vj edgecombe | 30.90% | 46.50% | 29 | 35.6 |
| pj haggerty | 29.70% | 59.60% | 0 | 54.3 |
| tyrese proctor | 25.10% | 52.20% | 7 | 18.6 |
| hunter sallis | 23% | 63.70% | 22 | 31.8 |
| walter clayton jr | 22.30% | 53.70% | 5 | 22.6 |
| javon small | 22.20% | 57.70% | 13 | 38.5 |
| boogie fland | 17.70% | 26.50% | 0 | 26.4 |
| tahaad pettiford | 16.60% | 48.50% | 5 | 26.3 |
| tre johnson | 16.30% | 51.70% | 7 | 25.2 |
| john mobley jr | 16% | 49.10% | 0 | 26.1 |
| braden smith | 15% | 52.70% | 0 | 19 |
| joson sanon | 14.50% | 41.90% | 0 | 22.5 |
These are the four metrics I included to encompass a player’s ability to drive and finish at the rim:
Half-Court Rim Frequency: What percentage of a player’s half-court shots come at the rim. Players with a higher rim frequency tend to have more tools or skills that help them slash. We’re excluding transition buckets given their variability and challenges translating to offense against set defenders.
Half-Court Rim Efficiency: What percentage of a player’s half-court rim attempts end in a make? This helps us evaluate a player’s touch, as well as their ability to pressure the rim and finish in traffic.
Dunks: How many times has a player dunked this season? This can help us approximate a player’s vertical athleticism.
Free-Throw Rate: How often does a player generate free throws compared to their field goal attempts. Historically, free-throw rate is a powerful indicator for NBA translation, approximating a player’s functional strength, power and advantage generation.
Now, let’s discuss some of the most interesting prospect results from the table, from the best slashing guards in the class to the worst.
Dylan Harper
Harper is the only prospect of the 30 I tracked to place in the top quartile for all four of the relevant statistics. This makes sense for a prospect widely considered a blue-chip player and one who will almost certainly be a top two or three pick. Harper’s greatest strength is his incessant rim pressure, fueled by his size, incredible handle and strength.
He’s not a perfect driver, as Harper doesn’t have an elite first step or vertical bounce. His dominance in so many areas, whether that be foul drawing, strength, touch or advantage creation, should help him translate seamlessly to the NBA. If Harper develops into a superstar, it will come from his driving greatness.
Bennett Stirtz
One of college basketball’s breakout stars, Drake sophomore Bennett Stirtz grades as one of the best driving and finishing prospects in the class. He’s the only prospect with three of four stats in the top quartile, still boasting a respectable rim frequency above 30%. Mid-major guards often struggle to translate to the NBA level, but Stirtz’s driving bodes well for him.
He’ll need to progress as a shooter to pair with his passing, slashing and defense, but Stirtz should translate as a driver, especially facing less defensive attention at the NBA level. His pace with the ball, touch (second in HC rim efficiency) and vertical pop are all factors that render Stirtz one of the draft’s most underdiscussed players.
Kam Jones
Of all the guard prospects in the database, Jones’s profile fascinates me the most. The 6’5 senior pressures the rim at the second highest rate (43.6%) with the third highest efficiency (64.8%). However, hasn’t dunked all season (3 career dunks) and draws the fewest free-throws of any prospect on the list.
Jones’s lack of functional explosion and strength, especially for a 23-year-old prospect. His touch and craft are both stellar and those skills, paired with his passing and shooting, should help Jones become a solid rotation piece. The stats might suggest a limited NBA ceiling, especially carrying excess on-ball usage.
VJ Edgecombe
Edgecombe’s statistical profile also raises questions while providing some optimism for the future. He leads all prospects on the list in dunks (29) and has a solid free-throw and half-court rim rate, showcasing his elite athletic tools. Few prospects in the class can match his first step and vertical bounce, leading to quite a bit of theoretical upside.
However, Edgecombe is an extremely inefficient finisher in the half-court despite his dunking prowess. His 46.5% half-court rim efficiency ranks in the bottom five, shooting a worrisome 41.9% on half-court layups. Edgecombe certainly possesses the traits to dominate as a driver, but his touch and handling coordination are notable concerns for that development.
Boogie Fland and Tahaad Pettiford
Short guards often struggle to adapt to the NBA due to their size, strength, and athletic tools. Fland and Pettiford both place in the bottom quartile for three of the four stats, but Pettiford’s solid vertical bounce is a saving trait. Still, their struggles working downhill and scoring at the basket suggest some worries for pro translation.
Fland and Pettiford both have NBA-quality skills, elite handles, and impressive shotmaking repertoires. However, to succeed in the NBA, both will need to reach elite levels for their other standout traits to compensate for limitations at the rim.
Xaivian Lee
The class’s leader in half-court rim pressure, Xaivian Lee, comes as a bit of a surprise given his lack of explosiveness and size. He’s not an efficiency finisher in the half-court, but Lee pressures the rim at an elite level in the college game.
Lee wins with a strong first step and one of the class’s best handles, capable of shifting in and out of defenses. This rim pressure ability combined with Lee’s excellent shooting and passing could make him worth more draft consideration than he currently receives.
All Stats via Synergy and Bart Torvik
