RosterResource Chat – 2/21/25

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the (earlier-than-normal) RosterResource Live Chat!

We’ve reached the time of the year where the projected WAR for remaining Free Agents is finally lower than all 30 teams.

It’s also the time where my projected rosters change often and the best way to find out why I moved something around (lineup order, bullpen role, etc.) is to ask me here. Big changes for projected lineup orders for Phillies and Yankees in recent days.   

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/phillies

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/yankees

Here we go …

Phil: The current Red Sox drama seems to revolve around Devers vs. Bregman at 3rd and Bregman vs. Campbell at 2nd. Does Vaughan Grissom have a role to play here, though? He had a terrible year, but it’s still weird to me that he’s gone from likely everyday 2nd baseman to completely forgotten man in just a year. Is this an Adalberto Mondesi situation where he’ll just never be heard from again?

Jon Becker: Happy Friday everyone! I wouldn’t say Grissom is quite in Mondesi limbo (Mondesi just never got healthy and hasn’t played anywhere in the world since the Red Sox got him, as best as I can tell), but he’s pretty buried on the depth chart, yeah. The Braves gave him some LF reps before he was moved to the Red Sox and I wonder if the Sox might move him around the diamond this Spring just to give him more opportunities.

Blue: Hey Jason, what do you think about the plethora of middle-infield options Toronto has now that they have Gimenez for 2B. There will be a competition for 3B but should we expect a trade, perhaps to clear out some of them?

Jason Martinez: I don’t really see a crowded infield at the moment. Sounds like Orelvis is gonna play 2B/3B while trying to put himself back on the prospect map. Trade value isn’t near what it can be if he mashes in AAA for a few months. Josh Kasevich (2nd Rd pick in ’22) could put himself in the mix for a starting job in 2026 if he has a good season.

Phil: With Anthony close, is Rafaela still an everyday player?

Jon Becker: He is for now, but once two of Anthony/Mayer/Campbell come up, it’s hard to see Rafaela playing every day if nobody else gets hurt. Probably switches to being a very useful super-utility guy in that scenario.

drplantwrench: with trout moving to RF, i’m a big believer in Jo Adell (i call myself the Mayor of Jo Island), but theres also stories that Rengifo is getting time in CF, who do you think is the primary CF for the Angels moving forward?

Jason Martinez: He’s improved in RF and he’ll have the same coaching staff working with him to become a good CF. I think he’ll be fine out there but probably a short leash if he struggles at the plate. In that case, I think it will be a mix of Moniak and Adell. Not sure if Rengifo can play out there but should be in the lineup on most days. And that could become difficult whenever Christian Moore gets the call to play 2B. Maybe Ward in CF and Rengifo in LF?

Bradford: Cease & Suarez for Vlad Jr?

Jon Becker: I don’t think Vlad Jr. is going to get traded, nor do I think this proposal would make a whole lot of sense for the Jays. Cease is an upgrade over Bowden Francis but their rotation is still theoretically full, and then after this year all they’d have to show for moving Vlad Jr. is Suarez. I think they’d rather just see how this year goes and have the draft pick if he signs elsewhere.

Jordan: How much would it reasonably cost to sign Anthony Rizzo? A couple million? He might even need to sign a minor league deal. Would he make sense for the Pirates as an early season replacement for Horwitz? Feels like using Triolo after 1B takes away his value of being a good glove at the other infield positions.

Jason Martinez: For someone like Rizzo who has a WS ring and more $ than he’ll ever be able to spend, it’s only a question of how badly he wants to keep playing baseball. My guess is that he’s relaxing and doing whatever he wants right now and not interested in playing for a team like the Pirates, especially if he’s not guaranteed a starting job. Or in the Pirates’ case, they only need someone to fill in until Horwitz is ready.

Padres: Multiple options for 5th starter: Hart, Waldon, Vasquez, Kolek, Brito.  Who gets the most starts this year.

Jon Becker: Hart, I think. I thought he’d sign for a lot more than he did, but he was still great last year in the KBO and I think he’d have to have an absolutely awful spring to not get that spot. Waldron would be interesting out of the bullpen, can’t be fun to face Dylan Cease 2-3 times and then have to figure out a knuckleball mid-game.

KingRaj4826: I noticed on the White Sox team page that Justin Anderson is projected to be their closer, but Prelander Berroa is projected to have more saves. Would it be more accurate to say Berroa is the closer (or a committee of Anderson + Berroa), or is there something I’m missing?

Jason Martinez: It’s probably the best way I can say that Berroa will end up as the closer but I don’t trust him enough in that role to begin the season. There really are no good options. Could make more sense to list a committee (Anderson-Berroa-Ellard-Varland) but how would we even know if they don’t win very often. Berroa has the big K numbers and he was getting better towards the end of the season. Biggest upside of the candidates. Maybe Gus Varland ends up being the guy. But it might even be someone like Mike Clevinger, who just re-signed to a MiLB deal and probably doesn’t make sense to block a younger player in the rotation.

Braves: Is there a realistic infield bench upgrade from Nick Allen available in free agency?

Jon Becker: Iglesias definitely is, but I don’t think he’s going to sign for the “break glass in case of emergency” backup infielder role that the Braves have — those guys just don’t play unless someone gets injured. Beyond him there’s Merrifield, Wendle, and Matt Duffy, who aren’t clear enough upgrades (if at all) on Allen. So I think it’ll be Allen and R5 pick Christian Cairo fighting for that spot.

G4: Turner a nice add by the Cubs. Busch now looking like a conventional platoon. How many PAs did adding the former knock off the latter’s season projection?

Jason Martinez: I wouldn’t call it a conventional platoon just yet. We’ll see how things play out. Busch was slightly above-league-average vs LHP in 2024 and he’s the type of hitter who deserves to get a chance to keep playing every day. But adding Turner, who crushes LHP and is mostly limited to 1B/DH, probably takes away that ability for the most part. I think his projected PA went down by around 50 PA so I still have him in the at around 80% of the time.

Chris Ilitch’s new girlfriend: What’s the record for platoons on one team and will the Tigers challenge it? Seems like 7 could be out there including the C battery.

Jon Becker: There were definitely points during the Gabe Kapler Giants years where we had all 4-5 bench spots in platoons, at least for a little bit. And those are just based on handedness, not specific matchups or who they have to play defense behind or anything else. The Tigers will definitely do a lot of mixing-and-matching!

Guest: At this point who likely had the dollars, role and roster space necessary to sign Robertson Finnegan?

Jason Martinez: At this point, my guess is that Robertson could easily get 1-yr, $6MM and Finnegan maybe something like 1-yr, $3MM. Waiting teams out for 1-2 more weeks in case a major injury occurs (it probably will) could help their cause. Braves seem the most likely team to add a high-leverage reliever.

David: Assuming the Mariners try to move on from Haniger; who is next up? Locklear or Bliss?

Jon Becker: Probably Locklear, since he’s more of a conventional DH-type and Bliss is a decent enough defender. Though they could always give Polanco more DH time to accommodate Bliss, depending on how well Polanco can handle 3B.

Ollie Dunn: Why is Caleb at 3rd for spring opener ?

Jason Martinez: Sounds like Ortiz will be the starting SS so Durbin winning the starting 2B job (Turang to SS) isn’t likely. Thus, they’re gonna give him a long look at 3B. Should be a good competition between Durbin/Black/Dunn. At the least, Durbin could be the platoon vs LHP.

Scotty: Longenhagen expressed his belief that Alex Freeland will play a roll in the Dodgers 2025 lineup due to his ability to play SS. Do you think this can happen without an injury to Mookie, Kim, or Rojas?

Jon Becker: A lot of different scenarios where this could happen, IMO. Just to name a couple: OF gets injured, Mookie moves back there, SS open for Freeland; Kim underperforms and gets sent down, Mookie slides over to 2B to accommodate Freeland. Mookie was reportedly working really hard at SS in the offseason and he’s too talented to underperform defensively so much that he gets moved.

Matt: Is there a way on the team depth chart pages on Fangraphs to toggle btw projected lineups against righties/lefties?

Josh: Will there be a new home for the projected lineups vs RHP/LHP this year or will they be in the same spot?

Jason Martinez: For now, I’m still keeping them updated here …

Projected Lineups vs RHP/LHP (via RosterResource)

and still hoping to get something built in the near future where you could toggle between vs R/L and see actual/projected/last 3 year splits.

Lord Thunder: Does the Alex Bregman signing jeopardize Romy Gonzalez’s opening day roster spot?

Jon Becker: For now we’ve still got him on the projected bench, but it definitely makes it tougher for Romy to make the opening day squad. If Campbell makes the team you’re looking at one spot for Hamilton/Gonzalez, and I think I’d prefer Hamilton’s speed off the bench since they’ve already got Refsnyder to mash lefties.

Jordan: How do you see the Bucs’ rotation shaking out after signing Heaney? Oviedo not gonna be ready for Opening Day? Oviedo to the bullpen when he is healthy? Use Oviedo/Falter as trade bait for an OF?

Jason Martinez: I moved Oviedo to MiLB section after the Heaney signing. He has an option remaining and (at least for now) seems on track for Opening Day. He’ll be around 16 months removed from TJ surgery. Of course, this allows them to be cautious and take their time with him. He was very good in ’23. They probably have enough depth to make a trade (Chandler, Ashcraft, Burrows, Harrington, etc. could all make an impact in 2025) but I can see them holding off until end of spring training. A lot can happen between now and then.

Bullock: Is this finally the year Brandon Lowe gets traded?  They’re gonna need more infield space as Kim returns and Carson Williams gets ready (not to mention Mead twiddling his thumbs in AAA)

Jon Becker: I think so, since it’s the Rays and this is just what they do. Lowe’s had a lot of injury issues the last few years but if his health lines up with the Trade Deadline (and Kim is also healthy) I think he gets moved.

Late bloomer: Gage Workman has long been recognized as a premium defender anywhere on the left side of the infield and got his most damning offensive weakness under control as a 24 year old at AA, dropping more than 10% in his K rate. The glove should be enough to stick as a bench piece if he can be close to league average with the bat. Any optimism that this rule 5 pick will stick?

Jason Martinez: It’s early and I try not to overreact after 1 spring at-bat (that HR swing was pretty). I still have him as odd man out after the Alexander Canario DFA . Vidal Brujan can play CF, which gives him the edge for a final bench spot, in my opinion. Matt Shaw struggling in Spring Training and/or Nico Hoerner starting the season on the IL will help Workman’s chances greatly.

Dadbauer: Are the brewers really gonna open the season without adding a single infielder?

Jon Becker: I’d be pretty surprised if they added an infielder at this point, yeah. Like Jason said earlier they’ve got an interesting competition with Black, Dunn, and Durbin, and it doesn’t appear as if they’d have the money to add Iglesias, the only potential upgrade, anyway.

Pads Fan: How fair is a Suarez for Torkelson trade? Feels like neither have much value…

Jason Martinez: Makes sense for the Padres if the goal is to cut some salary after the Pivetta signing. And Torkelson fits on their roster as 1B/DH. Not sure it’s a great fit for the Tigers, even if you consider that Suarez would improve their projected bullpen. They already added Kahnle and Brebbia to a strong group. They expect Lange to bounce back when healthy (June-ish) and they have so much SP depth.1-2 of those guys who don’t pitch in the rotation could also help out in the ‘pen. I don’t see them taking on Suarez for potentially 3 yr, $26MM.

Joe: Alex Verdugo last OF musical chair…will he start an Opening Day game for one of the 30 clubs?

Jon Becker: I lean yes, though there aren’t a lot of teams who are (a) clearly trying to win and (b) would view Verdugo as a definite upgrade over what they’ve got. Maybe Pittsburgh (platoon with Pham) or Kansas City (platoon with Renfroe)?

Carson: Mining The News suggested Heliot Ramos could short side platoon with LaMonte Wade once Eldridge was called up, and that feels silly given pedigree and results from last year. Am I wrong? DH feels like the place for Wade.

Jason Martinez: I think we’re probably looking at a few months down the road with Eldridge and this potential scenario. He’s 20 years old and has a combined 75 PA between AAA/AA. Doesn’t mean he can’t force his way onto the roster but I don’t think the Giants are counting on that.

They’ll want to see if Heliot can build off of his breakout season. If he continues to struggle against RHP (he was very bad against them), then maybe he’s only a platoon guy by 2nd half when Eldridge enters the picture.

Fant’sy Feast: Of the following, which, if any, do you expect to add 1B eligibility this season (the league I’m asking about is 5G starting or 10G playing at a position): Bryan Reynolds, Gavin Lux, Kyle Schwarber, Heston Kjerstad (none would be my primary 1B, but hoping to have depth in my daily lineups league so I don’t have to carry a 2nd 1B-only)

Jon Becker: That’s a pretty low bar to clear, but even so the only name I see particularly likely there is Kjerstad. They’re going to need to find playing time for him and 1B might be a little easier than OF, with how many OF they’ve already got.

diadem: If Suarez and Perdomo stay healthy all season what would project would be Lawler;s ab total?

Jason Martinez: I currently have him beginning the season in AAA and 259 PA in the majors. It would probably take an injury to one of their infielders to open up everyday at-bats. Or if Pavin Smith doesn’t hit, they can shuffle guys between the DH spot. So it’s possible he ends up in the mix for 400-500 PA. But my guess is that Lawlar will be the starting 3B in 2026.

Dirk: Once Arenado goes, can we assume Saggese gets everyday 2B job, Gorman to 3B and Donovan superutility?

Jon Becker: Sounds right to me, but this isn’t going to happen anytime soon, maybe not even this year. Arenado isn’t budging off his five-team trade list, none of whom want/need him anymore, so he’ll be a Cardinal on Opening Day unless he expands the list. Maybe he has a change of heart at the deadline if the Cardinals are struggling and he has a better idea of which teams are the strongest WS contenders.

Bullock: When you’re setting batting order in the pre-season, how much are you going by “this is what makes sense” vs “this is what I saw the manager do last year”?

Jason Martinez: During the offseason, there is some combination of how things ended, trends during the season, what makes most sense, etc. During Spring Training, I’m looking at lineups that have several projected regulars and deciding if the manager is tipping his hand. It doesn’t happen often, though, so I’m mostly relying on beat reporters for any tidbits since they speak often with the manager.

Oscar Gamble: Who would you start the season with at 2B for the Guardians if you were making the call?

Jon Becker: I agree with our pick of Brito, since switch-hitters are useful and his minors BB:K has been so good that he feels like a safe bet to be at least semi-productive. But Arias, Angel Martínez, and Tyler Freeman are all contending.

J Mac: Do you see Jordan Westburg sticking at 3B long term while maintaining 2B elig (10-20 appearances or so)? I’m torn on where he’s more valuable, especially if he has a bigger breakout this coming season, health, fences moved in, etc.

Jason Martinez: I think he’s done enough to be locked in as a lineup regular. Would probably take a big drop in production for Coby Mayo to take his job. As far as 2B, he should be there vs LHP. My assumption is that they’ll sit Holliday against most lefties, at least early in the season, and play Ramon Urias at 3B with Westburg shifting to 2B.

Justin: I remember this weird story a few months ago about teams being interested in signing Lance Lynn as a closer . Do you think that was real, or his agent trying to drum up some interest

Jon Becker: I think it’s real, Lynn went pretty in-depth about it in the interview with Ken Rosenthal and I would assume Ken got confirmation from team-side people too. Remains to be seen what role he actually signs for, but it would be fun to see him close.

Alex: The Braves are clearly hoping that Orlando Arcia can bounce back – even if just a dead cat bounce. How realistic are those hopes? Nacho Alvarez seems about as much of a defensive shortstop as Vaughn Grissom. Are there likely to be any reasonably priced shortstops available at the deadline?

Jason Martinez: If the Jays and Rays aren’t contending, Bo Bichette and Ha-Seong Kim will be two of the biggest names on the trade block. Not sure if the cost would be reasonable, but I guess it would depend on how badly Arcia is doing.

drplantwrench: whats the likelihood we see Christian Moore as the Angels opening day 2B?

Jon Becker: Just a shot in the dark here but maybe 20%? Would have to be Rengifo over Adell in center, or an injury, and Moore himself has to prove he’s ready this Spring. So it wouldn’t surprise me but not likely, I think.

Jack: Can you talk about the changes to the Phillies projected lineup that you linked at the beginning of the chat?

Jason Martinez: Lots of recent talk of Trea Turner moving to the leadoff spot and how that would be best for him. I’ve seen it from at least 2 of their beat reporters and so I finally made the change. In order to split up the two lefties, I moved Harper to 2nd, Bohm 3rd, and Schwarber 4th. Looks good to me. We’ll see if we get any indications in their first few lineups this spring.

DBacks: Mike and Torey have made many mentions of focusing on getting consistent rest for regulars to minimize the chance for injury; to what extent can we expect that to impact the PA workloads on the AZ active roster?

Jon Becker: Broadly speaking, lots of teams are going in this direction — it’s really only the Braves who have super solidified starters now, and a lot of teams really blur the lines, play matchups, give maintenance days, etc. For the Diamondbacks specifically I think we could see a lot of different DHes, working Alek Thomas in more if he makes the team since he’s not a guy you want just sitting on the bench, etc. Could also make it easier to work Lawlar in down the line if everyone’s already used to frequent shuffling.

Deepest AAA rotation?: The White Sox might have the least imposing major league rotations. You have 11 guys listed at AAA that have or had some cache as a future starter, including a few with MLB experience. Who do you think has the best opportunity this spring to force their way into the rotation early this season?

Jason Martinez: It’s clearly a season where guys will be auditioning for 2026. So getting a better look at guys like Nick Nastini, Jake Eder, Jairo Iriarte, and Mason Adams will likely be a priority before their best prospects (Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith) are called up for good.

Lord Thunder: Luis Robert Jr. bounces back this season. Yes or no?

Jon Becker: I’m not saying he’ll hit 38 homers this year, but I do think he’ll be closer to his 2023 than his 2024 if he’s healthy and gets into enough games, which is a massive “if” and probably part of why they signed Michael A. Taylor.

Caleb: With it looking increasingly likely Altuve sees most his time in LF this year, how does that affect the Astros’ depth chart/projections? How do you handle a player moving to a position he’s never played before? How long do you wait before moving him off 2B?

Jason Martinez: Little by little in a situation like this one where it’s kind of a crazy idea that starts to become more of a reality each day as we see him working in the OF and then they sign someone like Brendan Rodgers. My current projected platoon assumes Rodgers plays 2B vs LHP and Altuve would play LF. But it could end up being a full-time thing if Rodgers is healthy and productive. I think I have Altuve over 20% in LF in the playing time projections (compared to around 2% when they first mentioned the possibility).

Hermie: Where do you see Canario ending up and is it a full time role?

Jon Becker: I think he won’t get far down the waiver list (worst to first based on 2024 record) but not sure about an everyday job. Going from DFA immediately to starting role is tough.

wheelhouse: so who was the NRI candidate who turned down the Yankees because he didn’t want to shave? paul dejong? they weren’t interested in b rodgers apparently

Jason Martinez: If this is true and I had to take a guess, I’m going with Luis Guillorme. One of the best beards in the game.

Jason Martinez: That will do it for today. Thanks for stopping by. Sorry if we didn’t get to your question. Feel free to message us on social media and we will respond. Have a great weekend!