Happy Friday, everyone! I have good news, mostly for my editor: This will be shorter than the massively long two-week update from last Friday. The bad news, however, is that Justin Verlander makes for a less compelling featured photo than Corbin Burnes, so I appreciate that you clicked on this article anyway. Let’s fill you in on what’s new with the Matrix.
Free Agent Signings
Giants Sign Justin Verlander for One Year, $15 Million
• Michael Baumann’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Giants
The Giants would surely make an exception if Jack Flaherty or Nick Pivetta (they’ve expressed interest in the former, but not the latter) had a price that was too good to pass up, but otherwise, it appears that their rotation is set with Verlander in the fold. After he ran out of gas and moved to the bullpen to help manage his innings, Jordan Hicks will head back to a starting role, joining forces with Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Kyle Harrison, and Verlander. Landen Roupp, Hayden Birdsong, Mason Black, and top prospect Carson Whisenhunt will be waiting in the wings to back them up.
Orioles Sign Charlie Morton for One Year, $15 Million
• Kiri Oler’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Orioles
My first reaction to this signing was the one that everyone else had: Is signing Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano really all the Orioles are going to do to improve the rotation? But the more I thought about it, the more I realized the answer doesn’t have to be “yes.” Rather, it can be a resounding “maybe.”
Indeed, the rotation looks full as it stands now: Morton and Sugano will be behind Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, and Dean Kremer, with Albert Suárez, Trevor Rogers, and Cade Povich as depth options. But remember, the O’s traded for Burnes on February 1 last year when it appeared they may well be content with their starting pitching. So this time around, adding a couple of back-end starters shouldn’t preclude them from trading for an ace again. In fact, the added depth might make it easier for them to work out a deal for someone like Dylan Cease or Luis Castillo, as the Orioles now should be more comfortable to include Kremer or Rogers in such a trade.
Effect of the Verlander and Morton Signings on Other Teams
The starting pitching market should continue to percolate with Morton and Verlander signed, and as such, the options will keep dwindling. Even so, the cupboards aren’t bare yet. Outside of the top two in Flaherty and Pivetta, who should both get multi-year deals, Max Scherzer, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and Jose Quintana are among the veterans available.
Effect of the Verlander and Morton Signings on Similar Players
That $15 million should be the target number for Scherzer as well, right? It’s apparently the price of admitting a quadragenarian into your rotation.
Dodgers Sign Hyeseong Kim for Three Years, $12.5 Million
• Michael Baumann’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Dodgers
The most obvious effect here already has a resolution: Gavin Lux was traded to the Reds to help clear the Dodgers’ logjam of position players. While general manager Brandon Gomes attempted to put forth the idea that that the Dodgers didn’t need to trade anyone with Kim around, the writing was on the wall for Lux, who now heads to Cincinnati. For more on that, head down to the Trades section.
The Dodgers’ starting nine is now set, with Michael Conforto, Tommy Edman, and Teoscar Hernández in the outfield, Max Muncy, Mookie Betts, Kim, and Freddie Freeman on the infield, and Shohei Ohtani at DH. Against southpaws, the lefty-swinging Kim could take a seat to get Miguel Rojas some playing time, or Edman could move into the infield to make room in center for Andy Pages.
Effect on Other Teams
I don’t want to come across as too dramatic, but Kim’s signing with the Dodgers (who didn’t have a huge need for him) is a crushing blow to the Mariners (who absolutely did have a huge need), even with all the risk that comes with signing an international pro and not quite being sure of how well he’ll adjust to MLB pitching. We don’t know what the Mariners offered or if Kim was interested in playing for them, but the bottom line is Seattle once again failed to add a hitter to upgrade its offense.
If the Mariners are unable to move Castillo for impact bats — or use the money saved by having him off the books to sign, say, Pete Alonso — they’re going to have to continue to dig around in the bargain bin with only $15 million or so in the budget. It wouldn’t be super exciting, but there’s mutual interest in a reunion with Justin Turner (hence the blue cell on the FA Matrix), who could platoon at first base with Luke Raley. Other cheap options in the free agent pool include Jose Iglesias, Yoán Moncada, Brendan Rodgers, Donovan Solano, Paul DeJong, and Mark Canha.
Effect on Similar Players
Players coming from the KBO or NPB, unless they’re elite like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, almost always come with lower expectations for how much they’ll sign for, since their earning power if they stay in Asia is so much lower. That gives MLB teams a lot more leverage, so we can’t apply what Kim signed for to any of the above listed options for the Mariners (and plenty of other teams, of course). That $4 million AAV tag is bench-player money these days, yet Kim will be starting for the reigning World Series champs.
Orioles Sign Andrew Kittredge for One Year, $10 Million
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Orioles
While the Orioles haven’t come close to adequately replacing Burnes, their bullpen has the looks of an excellent unit, anchored by closer Félix Bautista, who is returning from Tommy John surgery. Kittredge will help to set up for the flame-throwing righty, along with Keegan Akin, Seranthony Domínguez, Yennier Cano, Gregory Soto, and Cionel Pérez. Of the arms in their projected bullpen, only Bautista, Akin, and Cano can be optioned, and it’s highly unlikely any of them would be. As such, the Orioles could trade from that surplus to have more roster flexibility.
Effect on Other Teams
Might this finally be what gets some teams and players to blink and start the run on reliever signings? It’s January, and Kittredge’s $10 million deal is the fourth-largest for a reliever, behind only Blake Treinen, Yimi García, and Aroldis Chapman, none of whom are projected as primary closers for their teams.
Effect on Similar Players
But along with the optimism that the relief market could pick up now comes a point of caution: Kittredge’s earning $10 million for his age-35 season is higher than expected (his median contract prediction was $7 million), which might in fact have a counter-effect of slowing things down as players increase their asks. If Kittredge is getting $10 million, should Kirby Yates be aiming for $15 million or more? Should Tanner Scott have his eyes set on $20 million? A rising tide lifts all boats, after all.
Royals Sign Michael Lorenzen for One Year, $7 Million
• Davy Andrews’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Royals
Royals general manager J.J. Piccolo is likely done with starting pitching additions now that Lorenzen is back on the squad, as Kansas City already has a strong trio atop the rotation in Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and Michael Wacha. That leaves two (or perhaps three) spots for Lorenzen, Alec Marsh, Daniel Lynch IV, Kris Bubic, and Kyle Wright (if he’s healthy). Lorenzen’s extensive bullpen experience makes bouncing back and forth possible for him, and Lynch and Bubic spent their time last year in the bullpen, too.
Effect on Other Teams
There are still pitchers aplenty available, though it’s a shorter list of arms who have both starting and relieving experience. Spencer Turnbull, Jakob Junis, and Colin Rea all bounced in and out of the rotation in 2024 and could do the same this year for a team looking for a more open competition for its final one or two starting spots.
Effect on Similar Players
Lorenzen did really well to get $7 million, coming in $3 million ahead of Joe Ross’ $4 million deal with the Phillies. That range serves as a broad estimate for what the swingmen listed above could get. It’s worth noting that the Brewers declined Rea’s $5.5 million option — that was after they placed him on waivers and he went unclaimed for that much — so he’ll sign for less than that.
Rangers Sign Chris Martin for One Year, $5.5 Million
• Michael Baumann’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Rangers
This may well end the Rangers’ quest to rebuild a bullpen basically from scratch. Yates, David Robertson, José Leclerc, Andrew Chafin, and José Ureña are all still free agents, but Texas has brought in five relievers to take their places: Martin, Robert Garcia, Jacob Webb, Shawn Armstrong, and Hoby Milner. As of now, the Rangers do not have a set closer for 2025, but I’d expect Martin to get the bulk of the opportunities with Garcia (whose 2024 ERA belies his true talent level) as his main support.
Effect on Other Teams
There are still plenty of strong relievers listed in black and white on the FA Matrix, with Scott, Jeff Hoffman, and Carlos Estévez the three remaining arms who are all but guaranteed to earn multi-year deals. (Hoffman, though, could end up signing as a starter.) Others with closing experience include Yates, Robertson, Kenley Jansen, Paul Sewald, Craig Kimbrel, and Will Smith, if you want your favorite team to sign a Proven Closer™.
Effect on Similar Players
Martin reportedly could have made “a lot more money” pitching elsewhere, but he prioritized playing for his hometown team, so this is a special case that doesn’t really mean much for the market.
On the Total Spending Projection tab, I color-code players’ rows with green (when the player does as well or better than expected), yellow (when the player gets slightly less money than expected), or red (when the player gets much less money than expected). So under normal circumstances, a player who signed for $1.5 million less than his median contract prediction would be color-coded with red, but I made Martin’s row green because the context of his decision-making has been reported.
White Sox Sign Martín Pérez for One Year, $5 Million
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the White Sox
Before adding Pérez, it was a wide-open rotation competition for the Pale Hose, with none of the five spots filled. Now… well, it’s still a wide-open competition, but at least there’s one spot filled! Pérez should be the favorite to start on Opening Day.
Effect on Other Teams
Pérez is perfectly solid — you don’t accrue 10-plus years of service time by being bad — but he’s not a needle-mover, either. Teams won’t be crying themselves to sleep because they couldn’t nab him, especially with the options in the Verlander/Morton section still available.
Effect on Similar Players
The crafty lefty got a little bit less than expected (his median contract prediction on the Total Spending Projection page was $7 million), which is decidedly not ideal for the other low-end starters out there. But, it’s entirely possible he took less money for a guaranteed rotation spot and probably a longer leash than being a five-and-dive guy, especially when you consider the fact that there’s be a good chance that he’ll get traded to a contender if he pitches well. There’s often context missing in free agent news that never makes it to the public.
Pirates Sign Caleb Ferguson for One Year, $3 Million
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Pirates
Ferguson adds some much-needed left-handed balance to a bullpen that could use it, as Aroldis Chapman, Jalen Beeks, and Ryan Borucki all hit free agency. That is, if he’s even a reliever at all. The Pirates are at least toying with the idea of making Ferguson as a starter, a role he hasn’t been used in (in non-opener fashion) since his 2018 rookie season. He’ll be on a starter’s schedule in spring training and battle with Bailey Falter, Johan Oviedo, Braxton Ashcraft, Mike Burrows, and Bubba Chandler for two rotation spots.
Effect on Other Teams
Not an earth-shattering move here, but teams always covet cheap lefty relievers, and now there’s one fewer of them on the market.
Effect on Similar Players
Some of those cheap lefties include Tim Hill, Scott Alexander, Andrew Chafin, and Beeks. All were better than Ferguson in 2024 as far as WAR is concerned, so the $3 million figure serves as a reasonable floor for all of them.
Nationals Sign Amed Rosario for One Year, $2 Million
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Nationals
Rosario will presumably bounce around the infield and outfield, just as he did for the Rays, Dodgers, and Reds last year. A platoon with José Tena at third base makes a lot of sense; that could mean the Nationals will be done adding position players and give Tena some run. He showed flashes of talent in 2024 after the Nats acquired him from the Guardians.
Effect on Other Teams
Rosario offered intriguing versatility after primarily playing shortstop prior to 2024, but he’s pretty horrid on defense no matter where he plays. That would have made him an inelegant fit for a lot of teams, who probably want their utilitymen to be competent fielders. Garrett Hampson and Jon Berti offer similar versatility — with lower offensive ceilings but much, much higher defense floors — and are both still available.
Effect on Similar Players
Hampson and Berti should also be targeting $2 million, though either or both may have to settle for a minor league contract depending on how the rest of the dominoes fall.
Trades
Reds Acquire Gavin Lux from Dodgers for Mike Sirota, Competitive Balance Draft Pick
• Eric Longenhagen’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Reds Roster Projection
• Updated Reds Payroll Projection
• Updated Dodgers Roster Projection
• Updated Dodgers Payroll Projection
Where the Reds Go From Here
Lux had a strong second half, with a 152 wRC+ after a horrible first half in which he mustered just a 60 wRC+. Plus, he’ll be a year further removed from the horrible ACL injury that wiped out his entire 2023 season. But that doesn’t mean he’s without red flags: He’s never been better than 13% above league average by wRC+ in a season, and he doesn’t (as of now at least) have a clear defensive home on the Reds.
Cincinnati could still use a clear middle-of-the-order bat with Matt McLain and Christian Encarnacion-Strand far from sure things coming off major injuries and Jeimer Candelario performing below replacement level in 2024. I don’t think Alonso, Anthony Santander, or Alex Bregman are in the cards, but perhaps the Reds could squeeze Jurickson Profar into the budget.
Where the Dodgers Go From Here
The Dodgers basically operated in reverse here, adding to the rich collection of bats before trading Lux. As such, there’s nothing more for them to do here. Sirota (not to be confused with Mike Soroka, Mike Sirotka, or My Sharona) will make his pro debut this year, as the Dodgers look to find lightning in a bottle like they did with Zyhir Hope last season.
Twins Acquire Diego Cartaya From Dodgers for Jose Vasquez
• Eric Longenhagen’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Twins Roster Projection
• Updated Dodgers Roster Projection
Where the Twins Go From Here
Cartaya is nothing more than depth for the Twins, at least for right now. If they’re able to move Christian Vázquez (they’d have to eat some of his salary to do it), Cartaya would contend with another former Dodgers minor leaguer, Jair Camargo, to earn the backup job, behind Ryan Jeffers. Both Cartaya and Camargo are on Minnesota’s 40-man roster.
Where the Dodgers Go From Here
As with the Lux trade, there’s nothing more for the Dodgers to do here; Cartaya was DFA’d to make room for Kim. Hunter Feduccia is the third catcher on the 40-man and prospect Dalton Rushing will be in Triple-A, though he’s also getting reps in left field.
Biggest Rumors of the Week
• There’s still no clarity on when exactly Pete Alonso will sign, but at the moment it seems he is targeting a return to the Mets. According to MLB Network Radio’s Jim Duquette, Alonso and agent Scott Boras have proposed a deal to the Mets — and only the Mets — for three years with opt outs. Of course, contract offers come from teams, not agents and/or players, and no financial details have been reported, so this nugget alone might not amount to much of anything. However, it’s notable that Alonso seems to be seeking out the Mets specifically.
Alonso’s market has been tepid at best, with the Polar Bear left out in the cold as one of the last free agent first basemen standing in this game of musical chairs, if you will. Without Alonso, the Mets’ chair currently sits empty, though they could fill it by sliding third baseman Mark Vientos over to first, with former top prospect Brett Baty replacing Vientos and getting yet another shot at a regular major league role. The Mets would probably be better off in 2025 with Alonso than without him, so in the absence of a longer-term contract offer from other clubs, it seems that Alonso’s camp is trying to take advantage of New York’s short-term need. As things stand, the Mets have a potent top of the lineup, with Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Vientos, and Brandon Nimmo, but they certainly could use another hitter or two.
• The market for Alex Bregman, the other big name Boras client still available, has also been slow to develop. However, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic dropped an interesting tidbit in his Friday morning column: The Red Sox, long regarded as a top suitor for Bregman, might not even want him all that much. That doesn’t mean they won’t sign him, and they could still be looking to acquire a third baseman — perhaps via a trade with the Cardinals for Nolan Arenado — but they certainly are no longer the frontrunners to land Bregman. On Thursday, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reported that the Blue Jays are “on the periphery” for Bregman as well.
So, where does that leave Bregman? The Tigers have been “all-in” on him, but apparently not enough to seal the deal just yet. Might an opportunistic team, if not the Tigers themselves, see if it can lure Bregman on a shorter-term deal, like the one reportedly put forth to the Mets by Alonso? In addition to the aforementioned Red Sox and Blue Jays, the Phillies could be a fit for Bregman if they trade Alec Bohm.
