West Ham struck gold on their £100m star in the making

Coming off the back of their UEFA Conference League success, and aiming to build on their squad quality for the season ahead, West Ham enjoyed quite the summer back in 2023.

Crucially, this was the summer when Declan Rice was sold by the club, joining Arsenal for a fee of around £105m, and tasking the Hammers with replacing the key figure in midfield.

James Ward-Prowse and Edson Alvarez were both signed, looking to reinstate the qualities of Rice into their midfield in the shape of two players, Alvarez the more protective and defensive midfield type, whilst Ward-Prowse adds more progressive qualities on the ball.

But the biggest signing of the summer was higher up the pitch, bringing Mohammed Kudus to the club after he joined from Ajax for a fee of around £38m, paying £35.59m upfront, with £2.57m being paid in performance-related add-ons.

In the present day, he has proven himself to be just as important as a certain Jarrod Bowen.

How Kudus compares to Jarrod Bowen

Since joining from Hull City in 2020 for a fee of around £20m plus add-ons, Bowen has made 215 appearances for the club, netting 64 goals, providing 41 assists, and totalling 16,880 minutes on the field.

Bowen is a hard-working, dynamic forward who is clinical in front of goal. Last season, the 27-year-old scored 20 goals and managed ten assists, being the real figurehead for the Hammers, slotting in upfront to replace Antonio who was out injured for much of the season.

So far this season, Kudus hasn’t been in the best of form, but his xG numbers are still extremely high for those of a winger, more than doubling the xG generation of Bowen. His sheer volume of shooting, persistence to attack the last line, and running power make him a constant goal threat.

Expected Goals (xG) is a metric designed to measure the probability of a shot resulting in a goal.

But with the Englishman taking up the Ghanaian’s natural right-wing spot, it is actually the former who is demonstrating a high level of clinical finishing right now, scoring 0.38 goals per 90 from just 0.18 xG generated per 90 (outscoring his xG), whilst also creating for others, with 3.83 shot-creating actions and 0.27 xAG (expected assisted goals).

Kudus is more than good enough to be effective from anywhere in the attacking areas, but he would certainly benefit from being back in his natural right-wing position, and with Bowen in that spot, it could be a move away that sees Kudus claim that spot elsewhere.

Kudus’ transfer value in 2024

Since joining the club, Kudus has made 55 appearances for the Hammers, scoring 16 goals, providing seven assists, and totalling 4,204 minutes played.

Across his career so far, the winger has shown his relentless goal threat, ability to drive the team forward, and athleticism to get around and win duels in the attacking third, all traits that have made him a brilliant addition at West Ham.

However, this season has started slightly slower for West Ham, and this has had an impact on the form of Kudus, who has made ten appearances so far, scoring just two goals and providing one assist in 693 minutes.

The problem is something we’ve already mentioned. Indeed, Lopetegui has shifted Bowen back over to the right-wing which has seen Kudus playing in a less natural left-wing spot, an area that doesn’t get the best out of his qualities.

The 24-year-old is at his greatest when he driving at players, has the ability to shift inside and create an opening for himself.

This isn’t to say Bowen hasn’t done well on the right. In fact, he has probably been West Ham’s best forward this season, scoring four goals and providing two assists in his 13 games.

So, we’ve crunched the numbers but much might Kudus be worth in the present day? Well, the ex-Ajax sensation is noted as a ‘similar player’ to Bukayo Saka via FBref. Why? they’re both direct right-wingers, who like to cut inside onto their wand of a left foot.

Saka is currently valued at a remarkable price tag of £116.5m by Transfermarkt, aged just 23. Kudus, on the other hand, is valued at around £42m.

That being said, the Hammers star has been the subject of interest from the likes of Arsenal and Liverpool, with the rumoured fee it would take being marked at around £85m.

The 24-year-old Ghana international shows a higher level of goal threat than Saka, taking more shots per 90, generating more xG, completing more progressive carries and more successful take-ons. Kudus is slightly more direct with his runs towards the box, wanting to get shots off and be closer to goal.

On the other hand, Saka is slightly more intricate with his play, looking to create for others, use a variety of tools, and mix up his game, giving him a slight edge currently, as he also provides high creative numbers, such as 3.78 progressive passes and 2.52 key passes per 90, to go along with his 0.26 goals per 90.

But these comparisons make it clear that Kudus is well on his way to becoming a £100m player if he can add a few extra creative tools to his play, and still continue to offer that extremely high level of goal threat and transitional power on the break.