2025 ZiPS Projections: Baltimore Orioles

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Baltimore Orioles.

Batters

Anthony Santander was a lot of fun in 2024. He’s currently a free agent, but the projections suggest that when we talk 2025 and beyond, he’s arguably less impactful to the Orioles than he would be to practically every other team in the majors. That’s because the Orioles have plenty of depth in corner outfield; they should get a full season of Heston Kjerstad in right field and Colton Cowser in left, and it’s possible that Coby Mayo could get some corner outfield reps as well. You can’t expect the O’s to match Santander’s home run count, but they have enough solid players to overcome his potential departure. ZiPS has a surprisingly optimistic view of Daz Cameron as a reserve outfielder, despite his weak showing with the A’s last season. The Orioles must see something there as well, considering they brought him back to the organization after less than a year away; he spent all of 2023 with Triple-A Norfolk.

There’s been a bit of panic among some O’s fans – at least mild panic if that’s not a misnomer – about Adley Rutschman and Jackson Holliday, but it’s far too soon to start worrying that much. Rutschman’s not at an age where decline is likely, and even with a slightly diminished projection, he still looks to be a big plus in the lineup. Holliday struggled in the majors, especially during his initial stint, but this is a player who just turned 21 on Wednesday. This is likely still a story of awesomeness delayed rather than cancelled.

The offense is very solid just about everywhere. Gunnar Henderson is the best player on the team and the new face of the franchise. He was in the MVP conversation early, and even though Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr., and Juan Soto pulled ahead of him, Henderson was still an eight-win player in 2024. If this lineup has a weakness, it’s at 1B and/or DH; both positions still project as adequate, but they’re just not very exciting. I’m admittedly unusure exactly what effect the new dimensions in left field will have on this offense. So, question marks!

There’s probably not much the Orioles really have to do here. It wouldn’t be a problem for them to add a bat on the easy side of the defensive spectrum, but it’s not absolutely crucial.

I’ve already mentioned Mayo, but ZiPS also thinks Samuel Basallo is very close to being big league quality right now, and it gives strong long-term projections for Enrique Bradfield Jr., who is a possible eventual successor to Cedric Mullins in center field. ZiPS is also surprisingly excited about third-round pick Austin Overn, but the long-term error bars are massive because ZiPS uses college translations for players with a lack of professional experience.

Pitchers

The Orioles have most of a solid rotation assembled, which is a good thing. The problem is, of course, that the part missing is the hardest part to find, that guy at the top who you can count on to throw 180 innings and be somewhere in the Cy Young discussion. Perhaps Grayson Rodriguez or someone will take that big step forward and become that guy, but right now, the O’s don’t have anybody to replace free agent Corbin Burnes if they do not re-sign him. Given that this is the difference between a high-80s-win team and a low-90s win team in the projections, this ought to be a crucial issue to address, and it’s going to need investment. This is arguably the moment where you see just how serious new ownership is about not squeezing pennies until they scream. Right now, the starting rotation looks a bit like when you painstakingly restore a cool early-70s muscle car, turn it on, and then realize it’s not working because you totally forget that it needs an engine.

But aside from the missing ace, things look pretty solid. A full season of Zach Eflin is a good thing and Kyle Bradish will eventually return from Tommy John surgery. Rodriguez still has big upside, and ZiPS just can’t quite figure out Dean Kremer. Trevor Rogers certainly isn’t a lost cause yet, and Chayce McDermott received one of the larger one-year boosts from 2024 to his 2025 projection.

Getting Félix Bautista back is a pretty big deal, even if you can’t just assume he’ll be as good as he was before the injury. ZiPS projects the bullpen as kind of the opposite of the rotation; there’s some sizzle at the top with the front four or five guys, but really, Baltimore is in need of some back-end depth. ZiPS just isn’t that interested in the Bryan Baker/Colin Selby/Thaddeus Ward segment of the bullpen, should it come to that in 2025. I thought bringing in Craig Kimbrel was one of the worst ideas the O’s have had in the last few years. It’s not that I think they have a perfect bullpen; I’d just rather Baltimore look at guys based on their likely futures rather than their pasts.

As I hinted above, the Orioles right now project in ZiPS to win somewhere between 85 and 90 games, depending on how some of the playing time assumptions shake out. That’s basically the 2024 squad without Burnes and the lesser impact of losing Santander. So… not surprising? The Orioles are finally at a place where you don’t want surprises, so this is a pivotal offseason for them. Until the Orioles actually start to sign some of their young stars to extensions, I’m not going to lose my uneasy feeling about the mid-to-long-term future of this franchise.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2025 due to injury, and players who were released in 2024. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that only covers songs by The Smiths, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.