It’s always the hope that kills you, as Australian rugby fans have grown far too accustomed.
A week of increased expectations and probably more Grand Slam talk they would have liked pushed most of this Wallabies playing group into uncharted territory, and so it wasn’t a great surprise that the end result is disappointment for the players, coaches and staff, and certainly supporters everywhere.
Scotland’s 27-13 win at Murrayfield was an accurate reflection of the contest in the end, but so would have been whatever the score was if the Wallabies had converted the 70m turnover opportunity in the 63rd minute. It would prove a massive turning point, with Scotland scoring twice in the next eight minutes to properly ice the game.
There are plenty of avenues for excuse, if that’s the direction Australian fans need to head. Disrupted preparations on account of the Arctic circle drifting south for a few days; energy spent on downplaying Grand Slam talk and managing expectations, even day-before and game-day withdrawals of in-form players. But ultimately, there’s a set of numbers that tell the true story.
The Wallabies missed 34 tackles from 159 attempts, conceded 14 penalties and made nearly 200m fewer than Scotland from a similar number of carries. They beat half as many defenders and made only two line-breaks to Scotland’s nine.
Australia won more rucks and had quicker ball more often than Scotland did from an equal share of possession and not-too-dissimilar share of territory, but they just couldn’t crack the brilliant Scottish defence.
This Wallabies team had lifted themselves to a point where the expectation was becoming justified, and the idea that they could beat Scotland in Edinburgh was not nearly as far-fetched or unreasonable as a month ago
Where the Wallabies found space out wide against England and Wales with welcome regularity, it just wasn’t there at Murrayfield. The third pass to unlock the outside channels was rarely reached, and Tom Wright’s secondary playmaking – which had been so beneficial in the wins in previous weeks – was largely unsighted.
Simply put, they were done over by a better team on the day, and a team that needed to win that match as much as their opposition did.
And it’s all a great shame, because this Wallabies team had lifted themselves to a point where the expectation was becoming justified, and the idea that they could beat Scotland in Edinburgh was not nearly as far-fetched or unreasonable as it might have felt even a month ago.
Australia have already achieved some great success on this Spring Tour, and it’s largely come down to the work they’ve done as a playing group on the field, and in preparations off it. Like the great Ernest Hemingway quote, the Wallabies’ improvements this year have come gradually and then suddenly.
The squad has come together in much the same way. Through plenty of tinkering, and plenty of backing from the coaches at the selection table, Joe Schmidt’s preferred team going forward has emerged, and they’re playing comfortably both as individuals in specific roles, and together for themselves.
A simple observation of the side named for the Scotland Test really cut through, with a social media follower, responding to my point that the guys being rested and the players coming back in all made sense, simply saying:
“Somehow, Schmidt has selected more debutants than ever but the team seems more settled than ever.”
It’s such a strong point that it bears some deeper digging.
Schmidt’s 18 debutants are the most in a single year since post-war days. “The most for the Wallabies since 1920 and 1928, when Australian rugby was still finding its feet again,” Sydney Morning Herald senior sportswriter Iain Payten wrote from Edinburgh in the build-up last week.
All 18 debutants have been about looking at new players with a view to the future, but also with a view to building depth in positions.
“All Australian rugby competitions stopped during World War I, so players could serve in the armed forces,” he elaborated.
All 18 debutants have been about looking at new players with a view to the future, but also with a view to building depth in positions.
In order, this year’s debutant have been Josh Flook, Jeremy Williams, Angus Blyth, Isaac Kailea, Charlie Cale, Tom Lynagh, Dylan Peitsch, Josh Nasser, Darby Lancaster, Alex Hodgman, Carlo Tizzano, Luke Reimer, Max Jorgensen, Seru Uru, Hamish Stewart, Josh Canham, Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, and Harry Potter.
A hooker, two props, three locks, four back-rowers, a fly-half, three centres, and four back-three players. It feels like a deliberate spread, in terms of experimentation.
Interestingly, six of them have played at least five Tests, and Williams is the standout, having played nine of Australia’s 12 Tests so far in 2024, despite being a late scratching from the Scotland game. Only five of the debutants have played just their first Test thus far, and Harry Potter scoring Australia’s sole try at Murrayfield should be a good case for him holding his spot for Ireland next week.
But among the 47 players used to date sits a key group of players that won’t just be crucial against the British & Irish Lions in 2025, but beyond next year and towards the 2027 Rugby World Cup as well.
Angus Bell, Matt Faessler, Nick Frost, Williams, Rob Valetini, Fraser McReight, Harry Wilson, Jake Gordon, Noah Lolesio, Len Ikitau, Andrew Kellaway, Tom Wright.
Those 12 have played at least seven of the 12 Tests this year, and only injury has prevented Bell, McReight and Gordon from taking their place in more. Seven of them have played at least 10 of the 12 Tests, and only Williams and Kellaway have spent time on the bench. Kellaway and Valetini are the only ones to have played in all 12, and Valetini is the only one to have started every match in 2024. He has played 80 minutes in all bar a couple of them, too.
With the exception of Faessler and Williams, all of them have now played at least 20 Test matches in their career. Most of them have played near to or more than 30. Schmidt sees this as a significant benchmark.
For all intents and purposes, however, these 12 players represent the core of Schmidt’s first XV.
Lukhan Salakaia-Loto has also played 10 Tests this season, with a good chunk of them from the bench. Tate McDermott (11) and Allan Ala’alatoa (12) similarly.
There’s another important set of numbers among this group of players, too, beyond the large chunk of Tests they’ve played together.
With the exception of Faessler and Williams, all of them have now played at least 20 Test matches in their career. Most of them have played near to or more than 30. Schmidt sees this as a significant benchmark.
“A lot of their players are hitting that sweet spot of being between 25 and 30 (years of age) and having 30 to 60 caps, where they’ve got enough maturity and experience to have the right amount of confidence to be able to adapt the game as it needs to be done,” he said of Gregor Townsend’s Scotland team in the lead-up to the match.
Before the start of the season, most of these Australian players had less than 25 caps to their name, and plenty were in the teens and lower.
Schmidt’s approach to taking on the Wallabies job has certainly seen him spread the net far and wide. 18 debutants is one thing, but apart from tighthead prop and fly-half, every jersey in the match-day squad has had at least three occupants this season – and that’s both in the starting side and on the bench.
The Wallabies have used a lot of players and made a number of changes from game to game, yet fans have a strong feeling of stability around Schmidt’s selections
He’s started nine different back-three players, five different locks and seven different back-rowers.
Schmidt has looked at 47 players in 12 Tests, yet there is a full team’s worth of players who have played nearly every game together. They’ve scraped through the early Tests in July, copped the lessons through The Rugby Championship and used them to run deep in two Bledisloe Cup games. Now, they’ve experienced success together through the Autumn Nations Series.
The Wallabies have used a lot of players, they have made a number of changes from game to game, yet fans have a strong feeling of stability around Schmidt’s selections.
The players he’s looked at have been worth looking at and deserving of their Test debuts. The changes he’s made have made logical sense, with proper method to them rather than the ‘hit and hope’ vibes that seemed to dictate teams through most of 2023.
But more importantly, the combinations Schmidt is building are starting to pay off, and that’s where the longer-term gains are going to come.
Now the Wallabies have one last assignment for the year: Ireland, the very best of the northern hemisphere, at the Aviva in Dublin, to close out the 2024 rugby calendar.
The Wallabies can play with a degree of freedom again against Ireland, with the expectation that grew before the Scotland game now lessened.
After the Murrayfield hurt has at least dissipated, with the Grand Slam possibility now removed from the equation completely, Schmidt’s squad has a chance to finish the season on a high.
It will be a difficult, but not impossible, task. Ireland have shown themselves to be fallible, and they’ve certainly had trouble adapting to the new Law interpretations that have created much cleaner kick contests. Without the ability to block chasers and allow their catchers an easier kick receipt, the Irish haven’t been able to launch as many back-field broken play attacking raids that they’ve built their game around in recent years.
The Wallabies can also play with a degree of freedom again, with the expectation that grew before the Scotland game now lessened.
Schmidt has spoken all year about incremental improvements, and his consistency of selection has really seen the combinations and confidence build within the squad over this northern series.
It would be a true mark of how much they have improved if they can finish 2024 with one more win.
